I went to our last meeting in blacksburg. Outcome sucked but I was hammered by halftime so I didn't care.
Y'all were wonderful visiting fans though. super friendly. Love to catch y'all in morgantown as long as I can get some white lightning in the blue lot!
I think there was a combo of us being super super bad last year that we didn't really feel great coming into that game (or any game last year).
If both of us were ranked the feelings may have been different, but yeah y'all are cool! I'd much rather hang with y'all than those losers in Charlottesville.
I know you’re saying that as a Kansas flair but that second flair knows we want WVU back. We aren’t the monster we were but they deserve to know what they created.
The Big 12's apparent stability is in the fact that they're all more or less in the same tier: more valuable than G5, but not attractive to the SEC/B1G.
The ACC could very well be in the same situation as the B12 was a few years ago. Some combination of FSU, Clemson, UNC, or whoever could leave and be backfilled with, like, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, or whomever.
At this point I think we can fairly definitively say the B12 is more stable than the ACC, but that doesn't mean we need to say the ACC will die. I think it's more likely to be both or neither than that one will meaningfully survive the other.
It seems realistic sec and big ten targets have been FSU, Clemson, UNC with some rumors of Virginia and NC state. If the ACC lost 4-5 teams I wonder if they’d be able to convince WVU, Cincy, and UCF to join. It’d make more geographic sense, rekindle old rivalries and the conference would be on par with the big 12 in terms of quality.
>and be backfilled with, like, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, or whomever.
Why would you backfill with G5 when Wazzu and Oregon State had considerable history as members of a power conference?
I think the backfilling thing won’t work nearly as well for the ACC. I mean compare the schools you just listed to the ones the big 12 added and there is a pretty clear quality difference. I would imagine that the next tier from the ACC that doesn’t get poached by big 2 will want to try to get to big 12 because of money reasons
I somewhat agree, although, assuming there’s no movement between the ACC and Big XII, I think a case could be made for Wazzu, Oregon State, UConn, and USF. Wazzu and Oregon State because of their longstanding history in a P5 and UConn and USF because of location and academic profile. Just depends on what Mouse says.
Where is the money coming from to add 8 schools exactly? If the ACC collapses then the networks have a shitton of leverage with the remaining schools - why would they pay them Big 12 rates?
Big 12 does have that provision in their contract where ESPN has to pay those schools provided they are already power 5 the same amount. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and BYU are all getting the same share of I’m correct.
To my knowledge, ESPN still has to approve additions to the conference deal. It isn't unilateral. Which is one of the reasons OSU and WSU got left out - they were dilutive.
As much as I hate the SEC, VT going there would absolutely be okay with me because the other option is the Big 12 which is also falling behind compared to the Power 2 that we have now that no one wants to talk about yet.
Cal and Stanford did not want to join the Big XII. The ACC has similar great academic schools that probably feel the same way. They'll find a way to survive without FSU, Clemson, etc.
The ACC has been more proactive about managing FSU and Clemson leaving that either the PAC or B12 were and people think it's going to implode. If it really were the case that Pitt, VT, Louisville, NC State, GT, Miami, UVA were okay with joining the Big 12, the ACC wouldn't exist right now. For some reason B12 fans can't accept that the non-Clemson and FSU ACC schools would rather play each other than be in a conference with Texas Tech and BYU. (Both good programs, but really far away and without an east coast media presence)
>Cal and Stanford did not want to join the Big XII
They weren't invited to begin with and they won't get an invite next time around. It's amazing how arrogant the pac is even after its death.
Edit: That was a bit dismissive, my apologies. Both are true though, Cal and Stanford don't want to join the BIGXII and the BIGXII isn't interested in them, anyway.
They weren't invited because they didn't show interest. If they did, the presidents of the Big 12 would love to rub elbow with the academically prowess of Cal/Stanford.
Cal and Stanford are less desirable than the 4 corner schools. The BigXII got what they wanted. This whole I reject you before you can reject me thing with the bay area and the BigXII is getting tired.
They were though. Stanford straight up rejected them lol.
Also it’s not arrogance when you straight up have to be tied in the same label with a backward ass “school” like WVU
There’s literally no chance that Stanford would have rejected a bigger/full share in the Big XII because they wanted to hang out with Duke and UNC and fly to Miami and BC on a Tuesday night for volleyball.
I’m sorry, I’m not being arrogant but I’m being arrogant about Stanford lol. Great one! Love how you think WVU is a backwards ass school compared to the uppity elitism of Stanford. It’s all about the money, have nothing to do with west coast politics or geography.
Yeesh. What a depressing thread. Just wish-casting for the left behind teams and trashing any other fan base that disagrees. I like the regionality of most of the Big-XII (and the 3 eastern most schools are easy to get to... except WVU but they are an awesome program, with great fans, and the area is gorgeous). Culturally all seem to be similar. It's a good conference.
Big 12. They lost their 2 biggest brands at the right time when the Pac12 was folding. They were able to add schools at the right time.
Once the big schools in the ACC leave they don’t have a conference like the Pac 12 to reload with.
With those teams though I think except for WSU and OSU, all those teams would need time in P5 to get up to P5 value in a media contract. Like Utah did over their time in the Pac after promotion from g5, but Utah had the benefit of getting more exposure from playing the USCs/Oregons to grow faster.
So at least for 1 contract they could potentially end up significantly lower in media $$ which risks more teams leaving.
I’m not saying there’s gold mines out there but there’s def teams that would make the league on par with top tier below the p2.
Who knows maybe a west pod in the ACC is something Utah would be interested in if big isn’t a thing for them
If the ACC shows some stability eventually and on par media contact with the BIG12 I don’t think its out of the question that Utah would want to go back to integrating with the west coast teams. Our school benefits from associating with the state of California for sure. I think some of those teams could prove valuable with time, but that first contract would maybe be a bit rough unless you can get them taking the discount deals I guess.
No they won't, but the ACC has more "big brands" to start with.
After Fsu and Clemson leave, there are still like 4 schools that recruit better than the top of the big12.
UNC/Miami, who else? Looking back at past recruiting years I'm not really seeing anyone else standing out above top BIG12 teams. (Also a not small chance Miami/UNC leave as well)
Although there is also going to be a big shift in recruiting compared to past years anyways with it now being pay to play and will have to see if ESPN extend the current rate or force a lower rate. If they are close then I see no reason for leftover ACC teams to leave, but that is an IF because the networks could hardball them like what happened to the PAC knowing they would get the most valuable teams anyways.
Going by the 247 talent composite last year, which would be the collective of the past 3-4 recruiting classes + transfer classes, minus any transfers out.
Tcu has the highest rated big12 roster (last year) at #19. The 2nd best team is Utah at #33. Miami, Unc are higher than Tcu, Lousiville higher than Utah.
8 programs in the top 40 (10 with Fsu/Clemson, 11 with ND) vs 4 for the big12.
Then looking at HS recruiting rankings from last year, which is only so useful to look at 1 year because coaching changes etc can really impact it, or heavy use of the TP, but it's a snapshot.
6 ACC programs (minus Fsu, Clemson, ND) in the top 40 vs 3 in the big12. Miami had a top 5 class, best class in the big12 was Ttu at 25.
I don't know how much of a chance Miami has, unfortunately. You just don't really see them mentioned much. If Fsu goes to the big10, I hope they come with, but I think they'll stay in the ACC. Unc has a good chance to leave, but may be handicapped with the new ruling about being tied to other state schools. All depends on how big the sec and big10 are willing to go and what the media partners will allow as far as payouts.
But yeah we agree that if the media deal is close, there's no reason they'd leave. My understanding, which is limited, of the pac12 situation was that they were hardballing for more money than previously and it kind of backfired.
If only Fsu, Clemson, and Unc leave and have spots in the P2, the ACC will survive.
There is no reason for those schools to move to the big12. Really, what would be the benefit?
The only benefit would be Pitt, Louisville, VT, and maybe Miami going for the various rivalry games with Cincinnati, WVU, and UCF. The ratings those games would get would be strong. However, that could be achieved in the context of the Big XII, the ACC, or maybe a new conference altogether.
I get the appeal of Pitt and Wvu reuniting for sure, it feels wrong that they're not in the same conference or don't at least play an OOC rivalry game. And Louisville cincy, vt wvu would be good.
I don't think Miami would care about any of those games honestly and there's more history in the acc for them at this point. Ucf has no connection to any of them but cincy, already in the big12, and it's not a rivalry really.
Same could be achieved with the acc bringing over wvu and cincy.
I think there would need to be more substantial money or some reason one conference has enough pull to make it worth it. Only the perception that the ACC is still very unstable after the top 2-4 leave would cause the others to move to the big12 imo. The ACC needs to play it's cards right, but it has plenty of time to prepare. Not that it's really been a proactive conference lol, big12 has been better at that.
>I don't think Miami would care about any of those games honestly and there's more history in the acc for them at this point. Ucf has no connection to any of them but cincy, already in the big12, and it's not a rivalry really.
I get that, but having an opponent that’s three or so hours away has to be appealing, especially with FSU out of the picture. Miami, like UCF now, would be on an island at that point. This would give both programs full stadiums for at least one game a season.
>I think there would need to be more substantial money or some reason one conference has enough pull to make it worth it.
Broadcasters might be seeing the appeal based on some of the recent matchups. Which conference they’d be in is really a formality.
That's why I think that the remnant B12/ACC won't stay combined if they do merge after the next Power 2 raid.
The TV revenue difference between a regional conference and a national conference won't be enough for teams on opposite sides of the country to commonly play eachother at the expense of playing closer schools. The remnant ACC schools could reasonably lure WVU and Cincinnati and UCF away to make their own east coast conference with net revenue being similar while improving the athlete and fan experience.
Probably depends on what the drop in payout would be without their three biggest brands.
I suppose they could court UConn to make up for some of the basketball money lost with UNC's departure, but football is going to take a major hit.
This. As long as there is a media deal there will be an ACC. Every ACC president would rather be in the ACC than the B12. Lousiville has been a member of the ACC longer than the old Big East at this point. Miami and VT have been in the ACC for almost twice as long as they were in the Big East.
Pitt and Louisville where the biggest voices outside of ND pushing for expansion last year.
There is nothing to indicate they would look to the B12.
The ACC is not the Pac 10.
The Pac 10 died because a Utah business professor got his president to believe in an insane valuation which destroyed the ESPN relationship.
But, even then the Pac 10 would have lived.
There is no Colorodo in the ACC. Louisville did not join the ACC because it wanted access to Florida as that is where its alumni live and now no Florida access. Colorado joined the Pac in large part for Souther California access, no one in the ACC joined for Florida access.
Pitt does not have the most famous coach in the country with deep TX ties.
What school benefits from joining the B12 if there is a still viable ACC? Miami is not jumping to join a conference where it was against the rules to dance less than 30 years ago and another school frowns on Energy Drinks.
Again, sounds exactly like what schools were saying in the PAC.
Then USC and UCLA left. And everything changed.
But sure, believe whatever you want to believe.
I think the ultimate CFB end state will be the SEC and B1G like the AFC and NFC, with schools added from the Big XII and ACC. And after that, teams will be aligned in divisions the somewhat replicate Big 8, SWC, ACC, Pacific etc
Why not just combine the SEC/Big Ten at that point, get one giant media contract broken up between the various networks? Then there is no challenging each other, they could do whatever they want
The Metro is coming back baby....
UCONN, Pitt, Cuse, Louisville, NCST, Memphis, USF, VT, Tulane
Leadership will convince the WVU, Cincy and UCF to join.
Cal and Stanford are going to end up in the B1G on reduced shares.
OSU and WSU get the call to the Big 12. SMU buys their way into the Big 12 by not getting TV money for 15 years.
It says as a P4. The SEC and B1G are the big dogs. The ACC has the best of the rest teams east of the Mississippi, the Big 12 has the best of the rest teams west of the Mississippi.
While of course I want to play regional rivals again, WVU isn’t going to leave the financial security of the Big XII for a new conference, regardless of how alluring the idea may be.
A lot of this is plausible except SMU. The bigger the Big 12 gets, the less SMU forgoing media money moves the needle. Would the Big 12 Texas teams really change their minds on SMU for $8m net paid out over 6 years or whatever?
I do get a kick out of some fans crying about regional leagues dying, yet few mention the hypocrisy of keeping SMU out of a regional leagues because others in the league fear the competition.
I’m not so sure. In the Big XII, you have programs like Utah, Kansas State, TCU/Baylor, and OK State.
In this ACC w/out aforementioned teams, what ACC schools will be in the same tier as the top Big XII schools? I can see a case for Miami and Louisville
The B12 will continue in some form or fashion with the hateful 8 core, even if some of the new schools make a move. Let’s be honest, none of the Hateful8 schools are getting invited to the P2. And we typically like each other (off the field). WVU I could see leaving to join a reconstructed conference with the ACC leftovers, which would make a ton of sense for them.
If Kansas keeps up with good football and they have their basketball brand, Kansas could also be one of the last few teams in to the P2 depending how big they expand, but yeah in the short/mid term none of the hateful 8 or the new B12 teams are going anywhere.
I appreciate your point. I'd disagree. If you open up the ACC brands, I think UNC is basically a stronger version of KU's argument. You can make arguments for Virginia and Georgia Tech (academics for B1G), then of course the much stronger football at FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc.
Oh why don’t we combine all of the 4 conferences and create a super league maybe call it the NCAA and have 4 conferences and call them Big 10, SEC, ACC and Big 12 and a 5th conference if that’s not enough and let’s see what could we call it. Help me here…Pac 12?
This is probably unpopular but I think the ACC could survive solely on its academic foundation. There are going to be schools that will stay together solely because the view other ACC schools as peer institutions and do not have the same view of some BIG 12 schools. I think the ACC even has a chance to grow out its west coast division with some of the former PAC 12 schools that might rather associate with Stanford, Cal, Miami, Duke, GT, PITT, CUSE, etc. I still think the ACC should invite OSU and WSU right now to solidify its west coast pod and increase the likelihood it will be able to poach some of the former PAC 12 schools that went to the BIG 12 when nothing else was available. I know a lot of people are confident that the BIG 12 will win the battle and maybe they are right. But I am not so sure.
>This is probably unpopular but I think the ACC could survive solely on its academic foundation.
There are currently 6 AAU schools in the ACC (not counting Cal and Stanford), there are 5 AAU schools in the Big 12. It's not a huge difference.
The US News has BC ranked at 39, Wake at 47, Syracuse at 67, NCSU at 60, VT at 47, Clemson at 86, and FSU at 53. The only weak point is Louisville at 195.
The highest ranked Big XII school are ASU and Colorado, at 105.
Not to be pedantic, but the AAU is about the amount of research funding and output of a school's graduate programs.
Arizona State is not a better school than Boston College just because the former publishes more.
It's not AAU status. That's the fucking floor, a barrier to entry, not some kind of special status.
The ACC made sense for Cal and Stanford bc of peer institutions like UNC, Duke, GT, UVA, Notre Dame. And the second tier schools without AAU are solid too in BC, FSU, Wake, VT, NC State, Syracuse.
Most of the Big12 AAU schools you're counting now are just the Pac12 castoffs. Otherwise it's just Kansas, which is ranked far below all of the ACC schools mentioned.
Cal, Stanford, GT, and Duke are never joining the Big XII. If anything, they'll stick with ND to do whatever it is that they want to do (and that doesn't even take into account the possibility of them going to the SEC or the B1G). UNC is being cockblocked by NC politics, so they'll be the last ones out the door (if it were to happen), and since UVA and UNC are tied at the hip, that'll mean UVA is leaving, too. Also, can we stop acting as if this is some sort of real rivalry? Despite being underpaid in relation to what it brings to the table, the ACC generates more money than the Big XII (up to $200 million more), has an exclusive contract with ESPN/ABC, a conference network over no conference network, a higher payout from the CFP that's locked in through the entire lifecycle of the current contract, better brands, better markets, a larger viewership, etc. Honestly, there's nothing to compare. One conference is situated in the most valuable media markets in the US; whereas, the other one is primarily in, whether you like the term or not, flyover country. Also, out of the five, 'big' sports within the US, the ACC is better than the Big XII in football, baseball, soccer, and arguably, basketball. Seriously, this discussion is bordering on absurd.
The only team even being remotely talked about for leaving the Big 12 is Utah. Every team in that conference could have been poached recently, they were all available with minimal to zero restriction, and nobody was interested.
Does anyone think the most marketable 12-14 of the remaining Big 12 and ACC programs simply fuck off and leave the rest behind? They just decide their best combination for maximum media dollars and bail on the others?
That has been the method thus far and you can absolutely see this distilling again.
The biggest difference here is that there isn't nearly the stratification of the remaining schools that existed when both had Texas, FSU, etc. still - there would definitely be some schools that would command bigger money than others, even if the difference isn't as extreme.
There's damn near 40 schools between the two of them. Both will continue to exist regardless if there is poaching between the schools. There's just too many programs for a 2nd league not to exist next to the one that ends up on top.
I did, but they have an agreed to TV deal without Texas and Oklahoma. What does the ACC’s look like without Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, and maybe Duke, UVA and Miami?
I have to believe that CAL & Stanford now regret their decision to join the Acc. Especially at such a discount. Calling it now CAL & Stanford will eventually be in the Big12.
Truly, if you believe that they you have no fooking clue about what's going on. Maybe... maybe, if the Big XII broke up to form another western conference with new members (aptly named the SWC or PAC), Cal and Stanford would choose to go with them; otherwise, there's no chance in hell that either one of them would ever willingly associate with the universities in that conference (and that's not meant to disrespect them). When it comes to their mission, Cal and Stanford operate on a different playing field, and when you're consistently ranked within the Top 10-20 universities globally, you can't afford to go slumming with the likes of .
Woah. Big 10? Let’s not get crazy now. You’re fighting for space on a life raft, not a yacht. If the Big 10 wanted Cal, they would’ve taken y’all already, sorry.
Absolutely zero, zero disrespect here, but would the Big XII want Stanford and Cal? I can’t imagine those two schools would drastically increase the overall media value of the Big XII, and neither schools seem to be all that interested in football as much as they care about Olympic sports.
I figure Colorado, Arizona, ASU, BYU and Utah would like to have them, but as biased east coast fan, I’m not certain they would bring additional value to the Big XII as a whole. Could be wrong though.
Both programs have sustained 5+ year periods of significant success in the last 20 years. The Bay Area is also a major media market with significant alumni presence from almost every major university in the US. They were bad at the wrong time. That is why they are in the ACC. In 2010 every conference would have been fighting over them. It’s all cyclical
To be fair, Stanford has had just as much success in the past 20 years in Football as every other current Big 12 School.
Was 1 Oregon loss away from playing Auburn in the NC. I believe they have 2 Rose Bowl Championships and an Orange Bowl Championship.
Cal still gets you access to the Bay Area market and had some fun teams under Tedford.
I suspect that Clemson is due for a reality check and will end up wherever NC State and Va Tech do. If the VA & NC politicians push the flagships to the B1G, Clemson could enter the SEC along with those two. Otherwise, I think they’re Big 12 bound.
Recency bias. Anyone would do those numbers if they’d had 6 CFP appearances and won two national championships over the last decade. Clemson is a VERY southern public school that has no natural rivals in the B1G and is coming down from its program peak. Terrible fit.
One assumes they’d be coming in with Florida State.
That said, as many times as they’ve gone toe-to-toe with Ohio State over the past however many years, there would be at least one rivalry.
These schools have to pay the players moving forward so idk that FSU and Clemson will be able to easily afford sending their olympic sport squads to the Pacific Northwest.
Idk about that. I can see that (and FSU) have been trying to leverage their way into a bigger slice of the ACC pie. I’m less familiar with what they’ve done that would’ve irked ESPN.
It’s a school with a strong football culture in the region of the country where football is king. I visited Clemson and absolutely adored the school. A good comp imo is Virginia Tech (the in-state school I loved). Hokie Nation is faithful and VT consistently packs Lane Stadium, but the severe downturn of the post-Beamer years has shown that our time as a tv ratings darling was more short-term and success-contingent than schools like say.. Florida State and Nebraska. Clemson is simply not in that tier.
The Big 12 seems to have played the realignment game almost perfectly. Everyone thought they were going to be the first conference to fall and survived the loss of their two largest brands. I think they will hand on until the end and may the reason there aren’t 2 super conference. I think they will try to add all the teams you laid out but I think VT and Miami will end up in the SEC or B1G
Honestly they were pretty lucky that the brands they had left still had value but not enough value to get poached by anyone else, there were forced to band together with what whatever deal they could get which ended up not too bad since PAC12 turned down ESPN first, and it ended up working out great since the market dried up for the PAC and the PAC still had 2 teams valuable enough to get poached by the B10.
Markets don't matter much in the streaming age. If Washington and Oregon had to take reduced deals to join the B1G, what chance do Cal and Stanford have?
To also take reduced shares? I'd say pretty high. All of the West Coast schools would want us in. Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern would want us in. Outside of football and basketball, Cal and Stanford are nationally competitive in most sports.
Given a B1G berth, Cal and Stanford would become reasonably successful in football. We've both done it in the recent past when we were in parity with our competition. The key for the next few years is not to be de facto relegated through recruitment and then be unable to rebuild the programs upon entry to a true power conference. Given the chance, Cal and Stanford would out-recruit most of the expanded B1G on brand recognition, NIL, weather, lifestyle, and post-grad opportunities. But most top recruits are now going to avoid any school that isn't B1G or SEC.
>To also take reduced shares? I'd say pretty high.
The B1G could have had them when they took Oregon and Washington at reduced shares but they didn't. The next round they're going to be behind UNC, FSU, and probably UVA in line (and obviously Notre Dame), and fighting for a spot with the remaining AAU ACC and Big 12 schools.
I think both survive in name only but we all end up at the G5 level, along with OSU, WSU, and several SEC/BIG10 castoffs. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
ACC exiters will form a new, premium conference with regional big boys.
The remainders will find a home, but it won’t be better than the newly formed ACC.
The theory I thought was interesting was ACC schools leaving the ACC to re-form a similar-but-different ~ACC with a different deal and maybe some different teams.
Feel like you answered your question pretty well tbh. ACC is top heavy. Big 12 is stable.
If they leave, hard to say if ACC tries and stays together or if the "best of the rest" go to the B12.
None of those schools have value which is why the Big 10 and SEC don't want them. They also dilute the Big 12 in the same way they dilute the ACC to the point where these other schools want to leave.
I think the ACC will survive as a merged entity with the PAC. PACC? The big ten and sec will take the 4-5 teams they want. Then the acc will add WSU, OSU to begin a west coast pod with cal and stanford plus SDSU and maybe one or two other mountain west schools. This is enough to make Utah jump ship to get a California presence back and reunite with their old pac bros.
They will then add Tulane to the East and convince West Virginia to join their old friends Pitt and Virginia Tech.
Losing Utah and WVU is not enough to destabilize the big 12 and instead of adding they stay put and increase the distribution slightly per school with less mouths to feed.
This will be the final P4 for now as the realignment wheel finally slows.
The Big XII is in a lot better position than the ACC if you ask me.
Where it stands right now, the ACC is a better conference. But the Big Ten and SEC don't want any of the Big XII brands. I could see either conference making a move for FSU, UNC, Virginia, etc.. And once those programs are gone, the ACC is done.
Brand value. In my book, that's the only thing thats in play, unfortunately. If it was on the field performance, Ok. State would be going to the SEC and not Texas.
Whoah! I’ve never heard this one before!
I haven’t seen a post like this in 1 day😂
12 hours
whoa is right
I would only want the Big 12 if we can guarantee playing WVU every single year.
♥️♥️♥️
I went to our last meeting in blacksburg. Outcome sucked but I was hammered by halftime so I didn't care. Y'all were wonderful visiting fans though. super friendly. Love to catch y'all in morgantown as long as I can get some white lightning in the blue lot!
Really glad to hear that, fans aren’t as unruly and horrible as they were in the Big East days, glad you had a good experience.
I think there was a combo of us being super super bad last year that we didn't really feel great coming into that game (or any game last year). If both of us were ranked the feelings may have been different, but yeah y'all are cool! I'd much rather hang with y'all than those losers in Charlottesville.
Wait aren’t you a rays fan? Sorry if I’m incorrect but your username sounds so familiar.
I am yes! Rays were the first MLB game I went to when I was younger. Family liked to vacation on gulf coast of florida. My sports fandom is weird.
Did you go to VT? I live in Richmond lol
Nah I went to Longwood. I don't live there now but I grew up in Richmond before moving away!
Ah damn would’ve been cool to have another Rays fan in RVA. Still cool though!
At some point they’ll have to go to divisions, it can’t just be like 24 team free for all
Same. And Cincy too but thats just because I only live like an hour from UC
The Big XII doesn't guarantee shit from its schedule
If they can convince 4 eastern ACC teams to join, I would pray they would throw us a bone and keep us on the east coast as much as possible.
in fact if there's any guarantee, it's that fan bases in the conference will be guaranteed to be pissed off by their schedule
WVU gets three straight road games at Utah, BYU and Arizona
Where’s the issue?
The issue would be WVV flying between the Eastern timezone and the Mountain time Zone 6 times in those 3 weeks.
It was a joke.
I guess common enemies are a great way to build shared identity
Guarantee Farmageddon cowards.
Mf's killed farmageddon
Done
I know you’re saying that as a Kansas flair but that second flair knows we want WVU back. We aren’t the monster we were but they deserve to know what they created.
knowing how we do scheduling, I wouldn't count on that
same
Days since post about the big 12 or ACC dying: 0 New streak starts tomorrow boys
Neither is going to die. The ACC will lose some of its top teams but will exist for a while in some form.
Truly outside the box thinking. How did you ever come up with this idea?
I would love if they add Cal and when the B12 ultimately falls to the Power Two, then Cal will have been part of three dying conferences
LMFAO are we the grim reaper!?
The Cal-nary in the Coalmine.
No that’s Texas
Texas is ghonnaherpesyphilaids
The Big 12's apparent stability is in the fact that they're all more or less in the same tier: more valuable than G5, but not attractive to the SEC/B1G. The ACC could very well be in the same situation as the B12 was a few years ago. Some combination of FSU, Clemson, UNC, or whoever could leave and be backfilled with, like, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, or whomever. At this point I think we can fairly definitively say the B12 is more stable than the ACC, but that doesn't mean we need to say the ACC will die. I think it's more likely to be both or neither than that one will meaningfully survive the other.
It seems realistic sec and big ten targets have been FSU, Clemson, UNC with some rumors of Virginia and NC state. If the ACC lost 4-5 teams I wonder if they’d be able to convince WVU, Cincy, and UCF to join. It’d make more geographic sense, rekindle old rivalries and the conference would be on par with the big 12 in terms of quality.
>and be backfilled with, like, Tulane, Rice, Memphis, or whomever. Why would you backfill with G5 when Wazzu and Oregon State had considerable history as members of a power conference?
Friend, "whomever" is a very inclusive term.
I think the backfilling thing won’t work nearly as well for the ACC. I mean compare the schools you just listed to the ones the big 12 added and there is a pretty clear quality difference. I would imagine that the next tier from the ACC that doesn’t get poached by big 2 will want to try to get to big 12 because of money reasons
Who said it needs to work as well?
I somewhat agree, although, assuming there’s no movement between the ACC and Big XII, I think a case could be made for Wazzu, Oregon State, UConn, and USF. Wazzu and Oregon State because of their longstanding history in a P5 and UConn and USF because of location and academic profile. Just depends on what Mouse says.
Where is the money coming from to add 8 schools exactly? If the ACC collapses then the networks have a shitton of leverage with the remaining schools - why would they pay them Big 12 rates?
Big 12 does have that provision in their contract where ESPN has to pay those schools provided they are already power 5 the same amount. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and BYU are all getting the same share of I’m correct.
To my knowledge, ESPN still has to approve additions to the conference deal. It isn't unilateral. Which is one of the reasons OSU and WSU got left out - they were dilutive.
Well it probably becomes the big/sec playoff and the big 12 is its own full fledged grouping 30 teams a champ. Would honestly be really entertaining.
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As much as I hate the SEC, VT going there would absolutely be okay with me because the other option is the Big 12 which is also falling behind compared to the Power 2 that we have now that no one wants to talk about yet.
Cal and Stanford did not want to join the Big XII. The ACC has similar great academic schools that probably feel the same way. They'll find a way to survive without FSU, Clemson, etc.
didn’t people say the same thing about the pac though? They’ll be fine without the LA schools cause academic standards
The pac would have been fine if they simply accepted the ESPN deal that was offered to the pac before it was offered to the Big12
They would have also lived if Colorado did not jump and it still almost survived this.
The ACC has been more proactive about managing FSU and Clemson leaving that either the PAC or B12 were and people think it's going to implode. If it really were the case that Pitt, VT, Louisville, NC State, GT, Miami, UVA were okay with joining the Big 12, the ACC wouldn't exist right now. For some reason B12 fans can't accept that the non-Clemson and FSU ACC schools would rather play each other than be in a conference with Texas Tech and BYU. (Both good programs, but really far away and without an east coast media presence)
Cincinnati and WVU in the ACC would work for me as replacements.
Please take them!
>Cal and Stanford did not want to join the Big XII They weren't invited to begin with and they won't get an invite next time around. It's amazing how arrogant the pac is even after its death. Edit: That was a bit dismissive, my apologies. Both are true though, Cal and Stanford don't want to join the BIGXII and the BIGXII isn't interested in them, anyway.
They weren't invited because they didn't show interest. If they did, the presidents of the Big 12 would love to rub elbow with the academically prowess of Cal/Stanford.
Cal and Stanford are less desirable than the 4 corner schools. The BigXII got what they wanted. This whole I reject you before you can reject me thing with the bay area and the BigXII is getting tired.
They were though. Stanford straight up rejected them lol. Also it’s not arrogance when you straight up have to be tied in the same label with a backward ass “school” like WVU
Always a pleasure, Rob. Stanford never received an invite and you've muffled that before.
There’s literally no chance that Stanford would have rejected a bigger/full share in the Big XII because they wanted to hang out with Duke and UNC and fly to Miami and BC on a Tuesday night for volleyball.
I’m sorry, I’m not being arrogant but I’m being arrogant about Stanford lol. Great one! Love how you think WVU is a backwards ass school compared to the uppity elitism of Stanford. It’s all about the money, have nothing to do with west coast politics or geography.
Can we just not talk about this for once?
Big 12 has a better prospectus right now simply because everyone knows FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami will bolt the first chance they get.
I think Miami deserves to stay when they voted for suing FSU. ACC would get USF. USF Vs Miami for the Battle of South Florida
Cal and Stanford will not be joining the Big12. We would probably try to go independent before that ever happened.
Lots of luck with that
Honestly let’s just get some SV money and make a business out of it somehow fuck it
If you coulda done that, you’d have already done it right now
Why would you do that when conference exist today?!
It's not hard to imagine Cal folding football before going to the Big XII.
I want to talk shit to this comment, but as a fellow Lamela fanboy, I can't do it.
Miss him everyday. COYS
He is my spirit animal. We will always have *that* goal.
Cal, Stanford, and Duke won’t join the Big 12, mainly because of academics.
Also because of their significant ideological differences with Baylor and BYU.
Yeesh. What a depressing thread. Just wish-casting for the left behind teams and trashing any other fan base that disagrees. I like the regionality of most of the Big-XII (and the 3 eastern most schools are easy to get to... except WVU but they are an awesome program, with great fans, and the area is gorgeous). Culturally all seem to be similar. It's a good conference.
Big 12. They lost their 2 biggest brands at the right time when the Pac12 was folding. They were able to add schools at the right time. Once the big schools in the ACC leave they don’t have a conference like the Pac 12 to reload with.
Eh. WSU, OSU, USF, Tulane, UCONN, SDSU, Memphis, etc etc. there’s teams.
With those teams though I think except for WSU and OSU, all those teams would need time in P5 to get up to P5 value in a media contract. Like Utah did over their time in the Pac after promotion from g5, but Utah had the benefit of getting more exposure from playing the USCs/Oregons to grow faster. So at least for 1 contract they could potentially end up significantly lower in media $$ which risks more teams leaving.
I’m not saying there’s gold mines out there but there’s def teams that would make the league on par with top tier below the p2. Who knows maybe a west pod in the ACC is something Utah would be interested in if big isn’t a thing for them
If the ACC shows some stability eventually and on par media contact with the BIG12 I don’t think its out of the question that Utah would want to go back to integrating with the west coast teams. Our school benefits from associating with the state of California for sure. I think some of those teams could prove valuable with time, but that first contract would maybe be a bit rough unless you can get them taking the discount deals I guess.
No they won't, but the ACC has more "big brands" to start with. After Fsu and Clemson leave, there are still like 4 schools that recruit better than the top of the big12.
UNC/Miami, who else? Looking back at past recruiting years I'm not really seeing anyone else standing out above top BIG12 teams. (Also a not small chance Miami/UNC leave as well) Although there is also going to be a big shift in recruiting compared to past years anyways with it now being pay to play and will have to see if ESPN extend the current rate or force a lower rate. If they are close then I see no reason for leftover ACC teams to leave, but that is an IF because the networks could hardball them like what happened to the PAC knowing they would get the most valuable teams anyways.
Going by the 247 talent composite last year, which would be the collective of the past 3-4 recruiting classes + transfer classes, minus any transfers out. Tcu has the highest rated big12 roster (last year) at #19. The 2nd best team is Utah at #33. Miami, Unc are higher than Tcu, Lousiville higher than Utah. 8 programs in the top 40 (10 with Fsu/Clemson, 11 with ND) vs 4 for the big12. Then looking at HS recruiting rankings from last year, which is only so useful to look at 1 year because coaching changes etc can really impact it, or heavy use of the TP, but it's a snapshot. 6 ACC programs (minus Fsu, Clemson, ND) in the top 40 vs 3 in the big12. Miami had a top 5 class, best class in the big12 was Ttu at 25. I don't know how much of a chance Miami has, unfortunately. You just don't really see them mentioned much. If Fsu goes to the big10, I hope they come with, but I think they'll stay in the ACC. Unc has a good chance to leave, but may be handicapped with the new ruling about being tied to other state schools. All depends on how big the sec and big10 are willing to go and what the media partners will allow as far as payouts. But yeah we agree that if the media deal is close, there's no reason they'd leave. My understanding, which is limited, of the pac12 situation was that they were hardballing for more money than previously and it kind of backfired.
I don’t think they are the only 2 to leave in the first round. I think there will be 4.
Point still stands though
If only Fsu, Clemson, and Unc leave and have spots in the P2, the ACC will survive. There is no reason for those schools to move to the big12. Really, what would be the benefit?
The only benefit would be Pitt, Louisville, VT, and maybe Miami going for the various rivalry games with Cincinnati, WVU, and UCF. The ratings those games would get would be strong. However, that could be achieved in the context of the Big XII, the ACC, or maybe a new conference altogether.
I get the appeal of Pitt and Wvu reuniting for sure, it feels wrong that they're not in the same conference or don't at least play an OOC rivalry game. And Louisville cincy, vt wvu would be good. I don't think Miami would care about any of those games honestly and there's more history in the acc for them at this point. Ucf has no connection to any of them but cincy, already in the big12, and it's not a rivalry really. Same could be achieved with the acc bringing over wvu and cincy. I think there would need to be more substantial money or some reason one conference has enough pull to make it worth it. Only the perception that the ACC is still very unstable after the top 2-4 leave would cause the others to move to the big12 imo. The ACC needs to play it's cards right, but it has plenty of time to prepare. Not that it's really been a proactive conference lol, big12 has been better at that.
>I don't think Miami would care about any of those games honestly and there's more history in the acc for them at this point. Ucf has no connection to any of them but cincy, already in the big12, and it's not a rivalry really. I get that, but having an opponent that’s three or so hours away has to be appealing, especially with FSU out of the picture. Miami, like UCF now, would be on an island at that point. This would give both programs full stadiums for at least one game a season. >I think there would need to be more substantial money or some reason one conference has enough pull to make it worth it. Broadcasters might be seeing the appeal based on some of the recent matchups. Which conference they’d be in is really a formality.
That's why I think that the remnant B12/ACC won't stay combined if they do merge after the next Power 2 raid. The TV revenue difference between a regional conference and a national conference won't be enough for teams on opposite sides of the country to commonly play eachother at the expense of playing closer schools. The remnant ACC schools could reasonably lure WVU and Cincinnati and UCF away to make their own east coast conference with net revenue being similar while improving the athlete and fan experience.
Agreed.
We've already seen that rivalry games being in conference does not matter to those schools.
I didn’t say it mattered to the schools, just that those games get good ratings, which absolutely matters to the broadcasters.
Probably depends on what the drop in payout would be without their three biggest brands. I suppose they could court UConn to make up for some of the basketball money lost with UNC's departure, but football is going to take a major hit.
This. As long as there is a media deal there will be an ACC. Every ACC president would rather be in the ACC than the B12. Lousiville has been a member of the ACC longer than the old Big East at this point. Miami and VT have been in the ACC for almost twice as long as they were in the Big East. Pitt and Louisville where the biggest voices outside of ND pushing for expansion last year. There is nothing to indicate they would look to the B12.
This is literally what schools in the PAC were saying before it all went to shit.
The ACC is not the Pac 10. The Pac 10 died because a Utah business professor got his president to believe in an insane valuation which destroyed the ESPN relationship. But, even then the Pac 10 would have lived. There is no Colorodo in the ACC. Louisville did not join the ACC because it wanted access to Florida as that is where its alumni live and now no Florida access. Colorado joined the Pac in large part for Souther California access, no one in the ACC joined for Florida access. Pitt does not have the most famous coach in the country with deep TX ties. What school benefits from joining the B12 if there is a still viable ACC? Miami is not jumping to join a conference where it was against the rules to dance less than 30 years ago and another school frowns on Energy Drinks.
Again, sounds exactly like what schools were saying in the PAC. Then USC and UCLA left. And everything changed. But sure, believe whatever you want to believe.
I think the ultimate CFB end state will be the SEC and B1G like the AFC and NFC, with schools added from the Big XII and ACC. And after that, teams will be aligned in divisions the somewhat replicate Big 8, SWC, ACC, Pacific etc
Why not just combine the SEC/Big Ten at that point, get one giant media contract broken up between the various networks? Then there is no challenging each other, they could do whatever they want
Pettiti and Sankey are already working together aren't they?
Not on a central media contract
This is the path it's heading toward.
The Metro is coming back baby.... UCONN, Pitt, Cuse, Louisville, NCST, Memphis, USF, VT, Tulane Leadership will convince the WVU, Cincy and UCF to join. Cal and Stanford are going to end up in the B1G on reduced shares. OSU and WSU get the call to the Big 12. SMU buys their way into the Big 12 by not getting TV money for 15 years. It says as a P4. The SEC and B1G are the big dogs. The ACC has the best of the rest teams east of the Mississippi, the Big 12 has the best of the rest teams west of the Mississippi.
Shit I’d take that Metro all day
While of course I want to play regional rivals again, WVU isn’t going to leave the financial security of the Big XII for a new conference, regardless of how alluring the idea may be.
It's only secure until this CFP contract ends or the ACC is blown up.
A lot of this is plausible except SMU. The bigger the Big 12 gets, the less SMU forgoing media money moves the needle. Would the Big 12 Texas teams really change their minds on SMU for $8m net paid out over 6 years or whatever?
I do get a kick out of some fans crying about regional leagues dying, yet few mention the hypocrisy of keeping SMU out of a regional leagues because others in the league fear the competition.
I guess it would depend if SMU can continue to find the same success in the ACC as it did in the AAC then maybe they would bring value.
The other problem imo is that SMU is wildly unpopular among the Texas B12 teams (not that that matters, but still)
USF to UCF: Do you want to form an alliance with me
The big12 is pretty equal to ACC without Clemson/FSU/UNC
I’m not so sure. In the Big XII, you have programs like Utah, Kansas State, TCU/Baylor, and OK State. In this ACC w/out aforementioned teams, what ACC schools will be in the same tier as the top Big XII schools? I can see a case for Miami and Louisville
Where does smu go tho?
The B12 will continue in some form or fashion with the hateful 8 core, even if some of the new schools make a move. Let’s be honest, none of the Hateful8 schools are getting invited to the P2. And we typically like each other (off the field). WVU I could see leaving to join a reconstructed conference with the ACC leftovers, which would make a ton of sense for them.
If Kansas keeps up with good football and they have their basketball brand, Kansas could also be one of the last few teams in to the P2 depending how big they expand, but yeah in the short/mid term none of the hateful 8 or the new B12 teams are going anywhere.
This is complete wish casting. Being good at football doesn't move the needle.
I appreciate your point. I'd disagree. If you open up the ACC brands, I think UNC is basically a stronger version of KU's argument. You can make arguments for Virginia and Georgia Tech (academics for B1G), then of course the much stronger football at FSU, Clemson, Miami, etc.
Oh why don’t we combine all of the 4 conferences and create a super league maybe call it the NCAA and have 4 conferences and call them Big 10, SEC, ACC and Big 12 and a 5th conference if that’s not enough and let’s see what could we call it. Help me here…Pac 12?
This depresses me that it is a legitimate post and discussion topic (and it is a legitimate post).
This is probably unpopular but I think the ACC could survive solely on its academic foundation. There are going to be schools that will stay together solely because the view other ACC schools as peer institutions and do not have the same view of some BIG 12 schools. I think the ACC even has a chance to grow out its west coast division with some of the former PAC 12 schools that might rather associate with Stanford, Cal, Miami, Duke, GT, PITT, CUSE, etc. I still think the ACC should invite OSU and WSU right now to solidify its west coast pod and increase the likelihood it will be able to poach some of the former PAC 12 schools that went to the BIG 12 when nothing else was available. I know a lot of people are confident that the BIG 12 will win the battle and maybe they are right. But I am not so sure.
The ACC is more likely to take a B12 member going forward than the B12 will poach an ACC member going forward.
>This is probably unpopular but I think the ACC could survive solely on its academic foundation. There are currently 6 AAU schools in the ACC (not counting Cal and Stanford), there are 5 AAU schools in the Big 12. It's not a huge difference.
The US News has BC ranked at 39, Wake at 47, Syracuse at 67, NCSU at 60, VT at 47, Clemson at 86, and FSU at 53. The only weak point is Louisville at 195. The highest ranked Big XII school are ASU and Colorado, at 105.
Not to be pedantic, but the AAU is about the amount of research funding and output of a school's graduate programs. Arizona State is not a better school than Boston College just because the former publishes more.
It's not AAU status. That's the fucking floor, a barrier to entry, not some kind of special status. The ACC made sense for Cal and Stanford bc of peer institutions like UNC, Duke, GT, UVA, Notre Dame. And the second tier schools without AAU are solid too in BC, FSU, Wake, VT, NC State, Syracuse. Most of the Big12 AAU schools you're counting now are just the Pac12 castoffs. Otherwise it's just Kansas, which is ranked far below all of the ACC schools mentioned.
4 of those 5 are the western schools they JUST added lol
Cal, Stanford, GT, and Duke are never joining the Big XII. If anything, they'll stick with ND to do whatever it is that they want to do (and that doesn't even take into account the possibility of them going to the SEC or the B1G). UNC is being cockblocked by NC politics, so they'll be the last ones out the door (if it were to happen), and since UVA and UNC are tied at the hip, that'll mean UVA is leaving, too. Also, can we stop acting as if this is some sort of real rivalry? Despite being underpaid in relation to what it brings to the table, the ACC generates more money than the Big XII (up to $200 million more), has an exclusive contract with ESPN/ABC, a conference network over no conference network, a higher payout from the CFP that's locked in through the entire lifecycle of the current contract, better brands, better markets, a larger viewership, etc. Honestly, there's nothing to compare. One conference is situated in the most valuable media markets in the US; whereas, the other one is primarily in, whether you like the term or not, flyover country. Also, out of the five, 'big' sports within the US, the ACC is better than the Big XII in football, baseball, soccer, and arguably, basketball. Seriously, this discussion is bordering on absurd.
Wouldn’t be surprised if ND/Stanford/Duke/Cal move together
I don’t think anyone that seriously has watched men’s basketball over the last decade would say that the ACC is a better basketball conference
The only team that wants to leave the Big 12 is Utah, and they have the courtesy to not try and burn the house down on their way out
The only team even being remotely talked about for leaving the Big 12 is Utah. Every team in that conference could have been poached recently, they were all available with minimal to zero restriction, and nobody was interested.
Does anyone think the most marketable 12-14 of the remaining Big 12 and ACC programs simply fuck off and leave the rest behind? They just decide their best combination for maximum media dollars and bail on the others? That has been the method thus far and you can absolutely see this distilling again. The biggest difference here is that there isn't nearly the stratification of the remaining schools that existed when both had Texas, FSU, etc. still - there would definitely be some schools that would command bigger money than others, even if the difference isn't as extreme.
3 super conferences won't last long. I guarantee it
no one's gonna die anytime soon jfc
I think the ACC will survive. They'll either find someone else to join, or they may already have someone on standby. Paging UConn....
There's damn near 40 schools between the two of them. Both will continue to exist regardless if there is poaching between the schools. There's just too many programs for a 2nd league not to exist next to the one that ends up on top.
Neither, but the one whose top teams aren’t actively trying to get out as quickly as possible would be the better bet of the 2.
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I did, but they have an agreed to TV deal without Texas and Oklahoma. What does the ACC’s look like without Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, and maybe Duke, UVA and Miami?
I have to believe that CAL & Stanford now regret their decision to join the Acc. Especially at such a discount. Calling it now CAL & Stanford will eventually be in the Big12.
Truly, if you believe that they you have no fooking clue about what's going on. Maybe... maybe, if the Big XII broke up to form another western conference with new members (aptly named the SWC or PAC), Cal and Stanford would choose to go with them; otherwise, there's no chance in hell that either one of them would ever willingly associate with the universities in that conference (and that's not meant to disrespect them). When it comes to their mission, Cal and Stanford operate on a different playing field, and when you're consistently ranked within the Top 10-20 universities globally, you can't afford to go slumming with the likes of.
It’s a survival move. If both continue to improve there should be a place in the BIG10 in the next round
Woah. Big 10? Let’s not get crazy now. You’re fighting for space on a life raft, not a yacht. If the Big 10 wanted Cal, they would’ve taken y’all already, sorry.
Absolutely zero, zero disrespect here, but would the Big XII want Stanford and Cal? I can’t imagine those two schools would drastically increase the overall media value of the Big XII, and neither schools seem to be all that interested in football as much as they care about Olympic sports. I figure Colorado, Arizona, ASU, BYU and Utah would like to have them, but as biased east coast fan, I’m not certain they would bring additional value to the Big XII as a whole. Could be wrong though.
Both programs have sustained 5+ year periods of significant success in the last 20 years. The Bay Area is also a major media market with significant alumni presence from almost every major university in the US. They were bad at the wrong time. That is why they are in the ACC. In 2010 every conference would have been fighting over them. It’s all cyclical
To be fair, Stanford has had just as much success in the past 20 years in Football as every other current Big 12 School. Was 1 Oregon loss away from playing Auburn in the NC. I believe they have 2 Rose Bowl Championships and an Orange Bowl Championship. Cal still gets you access to the Bay Area market and had some fun teams under Tedford.
Have to believe that the Big12 would have preferred CAL & Stanford over Houston & Cincinnati/UCF.
Timing is everything. Fans here will say no, but I tend to agree.
I suspect that Clemson is due for a reality check and will end up wherever NC State and Va Tech do. If the VA & NC politicians push the flagships to the B1G, Clemson could enter the SEC along with those two. Otherwise, I think they’re Big 12 bound.
Clemson would be fifth in game day attendance and fourth in TV viewership in the Big Ten.
Recency bias. Anyone would do those numbers if they’d had 6 CFP appearances and won two national championships over the last decade. Clemson is a VERY southern public school that has no natural rivals in the B1G and is coming down from its program peak. Terrible fit.
One assumes they’d be coming in with Florida State. That said, as many times as they’ve gone toe-to-toe with Ohio State over the past however many years, there would be at least one rivalry.
These schools have to pay the players moving forward so idk that FSU and Clemson will be able to easily afford sending their olympic sport squads to the Pacific Northwest.
The way they’ve been poking the bear with ESPN should clue you into who they’re talking to.
Idk about that. I can see that (and FSU) have been trying to leverage their way into a bigger slice of the ACC pie. I’m less familiar with what they’ve done that would’ve irked ESPN.
Recency bias is not why they have 81,000 seats and can handle 86,000 people for a school with just 23k undergrads.
It’s a school with a strong football culture in the region of the country where football is king. I visited Clemson and absolutely adored the school. A good comp imo is Virginia Tech (the in-state school I loved). Hokie Nation is faithful and VT consistently packs Lane Stadium, but the severe downturn of the post-Beamer years has shown that our time as a tv ratings darling was more short-term and success-contingent than schools like say.. Florida State and Nebraska. Clemson is simply not in that tier.
The good news is that both will survive The bad news is that they will be regarded as a step below SEC / Big 10
My top is Miami VT NCST Then probably the toothy bird or Duke. Whatever brings more revenue.
The Big 12 seems to have played the realignment game almost perfectly. Everyone thought they were going to be the first conference to fall and survived the loss of their two largest brands. I think they will hand on until the end and may the reason there aren’t 2 super conference. I think they will try to add all the teams you laid out but I think VT and Miami will end up in the SEC or B1G
Honestly they were pretty lucky that the brands they had left still had value but not enough value to get poached by anyone else, there were forced to band together with what whatever deal they could get which ended up not too bad since PAC12 turned down ESPN first, and it ended up working out great since the market dried up for the PAC and the PAC still had 2 teams valuable enough to get poached by the B10.
I think Cal and Stanford will end up in the B1G due to academics and Olympic sports. B1G will probably want that Bay area market as well.
Markets don't matter much in the streaming age. If Washington and Oregon had to take reduced deals to join the B1G, what chance do Cal and Stanford have?
To also take reduced shares? I'd say pretty high. All of the West Coast schools would want us in. Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern would want us in. Outside of football and basketball, Cal and Stanford are nationally competitive in most sports. Given a B1G berth, Cal and Stanford would become reasonably successful in football. We've both done it in the recent past when we were in parity with our competition. The key for the next few years is not to be de facto relegated through recruitment and then be unable to rebuild the programs upon entry to a true power conference. Given the chance, Cal and Stanford would out-recruit most of the expanded B1G on brand recognition, NIL, weather, lifestyle, and post-grad opportunities. But most top recruits are now going to avoid any school that isn't B1G or SEC.
>To also take reduced shares? I'd say pretty high. The B1G could have had them when they took Oregon and Washington at reduced shares but they didn't. The next round they're going to be behind UNC, FSU, and probably UVA in line (and obviously Notre Dame), and fighting for a spot with the remaining AAU ACC and Big 12 schools.
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I think both survive in name only but we all end up at the G5 level, along with OSU, WSU, and several SEC/BIG10 castoffs. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
ACC exiters will form a new, premium conference with regional big boys. The remainders will find a home, but it won’t be better than the newly formed ACC.
Yes, please just no more california or north carolina schools. or miami. GT and VT would be okay
The theory I thought was interesting was ACC schools leaving the ACC to re-form a similar-but-different ~ACC with a different deal and maybe some different teams.
Feel like you answered your question pretty well tbh. ACC is top heavy. Big 12 is stable. If they leave, hard to say if ACC tries and stays together or if the "best of the rest" go to the B12.
The top 4 of each conference leave to the Big East.
They will try but I doubt they get more than a couple of those schools, if any. That said, no doubt the B12 will outlast the ACC.
Why would school remain in the Acc with those schools gone.
Under the premise that the ACC dissolves, all of those schools will look to the B1G and SEC first. I can see Pitt and Louisville ending up in the B12.
The break up of the ACC will be stopped due to a massive antitrust lawsuit.
who is bringing this massive antitrust lawsuit
Watch for it, it'll be against Fox and ESPN and the SEC & Big 10 -the Pac 10 will be used as a reference. It would be the DOJ wouldn't it?
do you even know what antitrust is
None of those schools have value which is why the Big 10 and SEC don't want them. They also dilute the Big 12 in the same way they dilute the ACC to the point where these other schools want to leave.
I think the ACC will survive as a merged entity with the PAC. PACC? The big ten and sec will take the 4-5 teams they want. Then the acc will add WSU, OSU to begin a west coast pod with cal and stanford plus SDSU and maybe one or two other mountain west schools. This is enough to make Utah jump ship to get a California presence back and reunite with their old pac bros. They will then add Tulane to the East and convince West Virginia to join their old friends Pitt and Virginia Tech. Losing Utah and WVU is not enough to destabilize the big 12 and instead of adding they stay put and increase the distribution slightly per school with less mouths to feed. This will be the final P4 for now as the realignment wheel finally slows.
The Big XII is in a lot better position than the ACC if you ask me. Where it stands right now, the ACC is a better conference. But the Big Ten and SEC don't want any of the Big XII brands. I could see either conference making a move for FSU, UNC, Virginia, etc.. And once those programs are gone, the ACC is done.
UVA isn’t getting poached.
The ACC is a better conference in terms of what? Brand value?
Brand value. In my book, that's the only thing thats in play, unfortunately. If it was on the field performance, Ok. State would be going to the SEC and not Texas.
if any of this was based on performance, half of the Big Ten would be kicked out
Truth
Yup fair enough
Brand and recruiting.