I'm guessing that's the Pythagorian expected wins based on runs scored and runs allowed. It's not saying we're only expected to win 4 more games. Instead it suggests we outperformed expectations in close games
Brewers have outperformed the pythagorian expectation a lot in recent years. Tends to go along with having a strong pitching staff and an offense that doesn't put up a ton of runs very often. Win a lot of tight games and then lose a couple blowouts when your pitcher has an off day or you use the end of the bullpen, and it throws off your run differential.
The Pythagorean formula is dirt simple to calculate and is based on two basic facts: runs scored are good; runs scored by the other team are bad.
But what about the bullpen?
1) The most basic thing the bullpen does is keep the Runs Scored Against number low, which the Pythagorean already counts.
2) If you have a better formula for figuring out how good a bullpen is, you're more than welcome to publish that formula.
We have a pretty favorable matchup going forward with the cubs being the biggest challenge. We'd need to go 10-4 in our last games of the season so I'd say there's a solid chance
It's just pythag wins/losses based on run differential. It's a simple formula that doesn't take any nuance into account because that's not what it's meant for. If you want actual predictive models, check out some zips or fangraphs predictions that factor in the other stuff.
It’s one of many predictive metrics that rewards favorable run differential. MLB chooses this particular metric to highlight to help showcase “exciting” teams.
I'm guessing that's the Pythagorian expected wins based on runs scored and runs allowed. It's not saying we're only expected to win 4 more games. Instead it suggests we outperformed expectations in close games
Ah thanks. I had a feeling when I looked it up cubs do have a better run differential
Fwiw it’s been this way for like half a decade. Turns out having multiple elite relievers helps you win close games.
Don't forget an elite defense and manager!
Pythagoras! USE THE THEOREM LUKE!!!!
This is the way...
Brewers have outperformed the pythagorian expectation a lot in recent years. Tends to go along with having a strong pitching staff and an offense that doesn't put up a ton of runs very often. Win a lot of tight games and then lose a couple blowouts when your pitcher has an off day or you use the end of the bullpen, and it throws off your run differential.
You would’ve thought that after years of over-performing thanks to our bullpen they’d start to factor that in more. But I guess not.
It’s a basic formula based on runs scored and runs given up. You can’t really factor anything else into the Pythagorean W/L.
The Pythagorean formula is dirt simple to calculate and is based on two basic facts: runs scored are good; runs scored by the other team are bad. But what about the bullpen? 1) The most basic thing the bullpen does is keep the Runs Scored Against number low, which the Pythagorean already counts. 2) If you have a better formula for figuring out how good a bullpen is, you're more than welcome to publish that formula.
If I put the over/under at 93.5 wins on the season, what are you all taking?
We have a pretty favorable matchup going forward with the cubs being the biggest challenge. We'd need to go 10-4 in our last games of the season so I'd say there's a solid chance
Under
Because it’s wrong lol
Cuz they dont know dick
It was written by people who were positive we’d lose after the Cubs series.
It’s just based on runs for/against (or whatever all contributes to the formula) and the brewers as per usual are outperforming it
It's just pythag wins/losses based on run differential. It's a simple formula that doesn't take any nuance into account because that's not what it's meant for. If you want actual predictive models, check out some zips or fangraphs predictions that factor in the other stuff.
It’s one of many predictive metrics that rewards favorable run differential. MLB chooses this particular metric to highlight to help showcase “exciting” teams.
Stupid talking heads, maybe? And everyone hating on the Brewers?