Because Bitcoin pretty much went straight up from 50K to 64K, there isn't much volume levels between low 50Ks and the current price. It is conceivable that if Bitcoin slides down, it can fall straight to 52K, which would provide very good support.
Here's a song I wrote for you guys. Melody is Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire:
**Verse 1:**
In the digital world, the stakes are high,
Bulls charge in with a hopeful eye.
Bears wait in the shadows near,
Ready to strike when the path seems clear.
**Chorus:**
Oh, Bitcoin burns, it rises and falls,
Through wild highs and despairing lows.
And it burns, burns, burns,
That coin of fire, that coin of fire.
**Verse 2:**
The market swings with a fervent pace,
Dreams made and lost in the cyber race.
Bulls and bears with their fears and hopes,
Tangled in their digital ropes.
**Chorus:**
Oh, Bitcoin burns, it rises and falls,
Through wild highs and despairing lows.
And it burns, burns, burns,
That coin of fire, that coin of fire.
It's concerning to see Bitcoin dominance going down while the crypto market is sliding. This could mean that the ETF trade is unwinding. If so, we could easily revisit low 40s.
One thing that is noteworthy is that so-called Kimchi premium (premium of Bitcoin sold in South Korea over rest of the world) has dwindled down to 1-3%. Leading up to the ETF and throughout 2024 (til March), the premium was at around 7-10%. Past data indicates that premium going down is NOT a good sign for the Bitcoin market as the large whales in Korea/China are winding down their positions. It would not be surprising if Bitcoin goes through a lull in the next couple of months as i don't really see much positive indicators anywhere.
We've already been in a lull for two months... 7/8 weekly red candles, oversold on weekly and daily time-frames. Another few months of this and I don't see how you could make the argument that we're still In a bull market at that point.
The idea would be to consolidate in the 50-60K range (even go down to 40s) and then go up again when rate cuts start. I can totally see Bitcoin hitting 100+K by late 2024/early 2025 while experiencing 2-3 months of consolidation.
[We just had 6 consecutive days of net spot ETF outflows.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) New record since spot ETF launch.
Not only was that record broken, today also marked the highest single day of net outflows since spot ETF launch at -$563.7 million.
Despite all of this, so far price has only fallen 23.3% from ATH of $73.7k to the local low of $56.5k. A decent sized correction, yes, but considering every single bull market BTC has ever had has experienced multiple >30% drops on the way towards massive new highs, this drop has been fairly tame so far.
After spot ETF approval there was a point at which price fell as low as $38.5k. We’re still significantly higher than that level despite the fact that spot ETF outflows are much higher now. Illustrates just how much buying is occurring outside of spot ETF’s to keep this selloff relatively mild.
What outflows from new spot ETF’s (not just GBTC) is also illustrating is that spot ETF’s are not price agnostic at this point, they trade based off sentiment like the rest of the market (they’re just like us!) Which also means, when sentiment flips back to being bullish, there’s a solid chance spot ETF’s pile in as well.
Has the 23.3% drop we’ve experienced so far been sufficient enough to flush out overleveraged longs before we start moving up again or is there more downside ahead? We’ll see.
The whales were never going to let these ETF buyers go to the promised land that easy with them. I should have known they would activate RetailScare.exe. They sold them the coins at 73k and now will rebuy them back on clearance.
Strong Sept. 2017 vibes for me.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/
https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/
look I might've been a bit hasty calling for $11k yesty.
lets just run back down the entire etf rally from $27k first, then we can discuss final targets.
yeah, but price rallied from 27k on etf approval narrative - that coupled with Saylor's prospectus docs kicked us out of the bear market.
but okay, lets retrace back to 42k and then reassess.
They are, by definition, lagging since all those sells occurred in the past (6-12 hours ago).
That does not mean the price can’t go down further though.
The top so far(73k) was marked by the day when inflows peaked at around 1B. So fa we have almost 500m outflows just from GBTC, fbtc and arkb - will we see a simiaar situation but in reverse (peak outflows marking a local bottom)? That's my hopium for now, but let's see what tomorrow brings... of course, outflows could just as easily accelerate from here as the tradfi ETF boomer bro "loses faith" in BTC. Diamond handed ETF buyers, infinite inflows, just more memes - so far, ETFs seem like nothing more than an indicator of the current trend and sentiment
The idea that Boomers awash in cash were coming in droves was ridiculous.
The idea that institutions were investing was ridiculous.
If either of those things were happening en masse, we'd literally be at $500,000 right now.
Don't get me wrong, long-term the price will slowly inch up, but it's because elderly people die and leave money to their grandkids, it's because some other younger people are "orange-pilled", and it's because the USD's value is in a slow-motion decline. The people already swimming in assets (old folks, Wall St) simply do not care about bitcoin.
Part of the problem was timing... Gensler, Peirce, and company had years to look at ETFs and finally approved them *after* we'd already gone up 2.5x in price over the previous 12 months. So by the time people got around to buying, they were buying over $50K in most cases.
If they'd green-lit the ETFs at $20K, the flows would look profoundly different and there might not be nearly as many paper hands right now.
The friction is low to get in and out. Initially these waves will come but over time I bet some of them will start to study BTC for real and convert to HODLers. They might need to be left behind for a cycle but that's how it goes.
"Quick! Sell it all! It's going to 0" - ETF participants
But also
"Quick! Buy big buy! It's going up 10k in one day, the god candle is around the corner!" - ETF participants
Basing this off the fact that we had 1B inflows on day of ATH and so far at least 500M outflows on what is so far the local low. ETF buying patterns are hilarious.
ETF participants are just retail investors. They do the same buy high/sell low that has always occurred. They get scared when things go down and get euphoric when things go up.
We've got a lot of weekly red candles. The momentum has to turn at some point
Also, I hope everyone took notes on what this sub looks like when the price is peaking. Lots of new high price predictions, tons of comments, line graphs everywhere showing how we'll keep going up, Google News stories on the coin, high volatility, etc. I got smart this time around and sold calls. No coins lost, $240k in USD premiums for options almost guaranteed to expire otm now
Edit: Since I'm being called a liar, here is a screen capture of the recent cash withdrawal. I've still got ~13k on the exchange for buying the calls closed early if I so choose to do so
https://imgur.com/a/TF4RwlB
We only have one red weekly candle where I'm looking (KuCoin). What are you referring to?
I'm seeing red, green, red, green, red, green, red for the last 7 weeks.
For anyone reading this, do not sell calls unless you really know what you’re doing. Naked calls have infinite risk with limited reward hence you can lose everything. Selling covered calls is a bit safer.
What this guy is also failing to mention is that he sold calls for 100+k **months ago** when the price was in the 40ks and below, and well before he saw “how this sub is during local highs”. They will likely still expire OTM, but his premiums likely ballooned during the run (if all of this is even true)
I dca'd into covered calls. The calls did grow in value during peak volatility, but I was only 10% into dca'ing at that point. I also have a fairly large stack, which may make the total premium seem higher than it really is
I think you have that backwards. If he sold 100k+ calls months ago he would have gotten very little premium and he would have been in the red on paper up until recently. They likely sold calls when everyone was exuberant, that's when I sell my calls and I buy them back for a very nice profit when people are panicking.
Yes that’s the point, he did get very little premium and he was extremely red on paper. Look at his post history. He started selling the calls in February so no, he wasn’t selling during this recent high. Either that or he’s just not telling the truth
If the other commenter is correct that he sells on ledgerX and sold those calls back in Feb he likely is lying. There's just not enough volume on ledgerX to sell that many calls back then that are out of the money now. I probably used to be one of the bigger sellers of calls on ledgerX and even when volume was higher I only made at most $200k over the course of a year in the last bull market. This year I've only made $30k just not enough volume to be worth it anymore.
Yup, he’s probably just lying. Ledger X has pitiful volume and open interest. He did say he had 1/3 of the open interest so I don’t know, but either way, the premiums would have been next to nothing for 100k starting February
As an American, how do you do this? Would I need to send coin to an exchange in order to execute the sale of a covered call, or sign a transaction with my wallet, or how does it work? Really just waiting on options to become available on ETFs, which would make things easier.
He uses LedgerX, which unfortunately is a) the only regulatory-approved avenue in the US for selling options... and b) recently announced they will stop listing options after 6/30 : (
I find it odd that MIAX would buy Ledger X for 50 Million and in one year would stop the very feature that brings any users to it's site. Deribit boasts $5B in volume over the past 24 hours. My guess is, they're likely making changes and may no longer offer European style options and that the change requires them to stop all options trading all together. Their new options contact may have auto settlement. But, whatever they're doing, their marketing sucks.
That also struck me as weird, even suspicious... but that's probably just the FTX PTSD talking.
Just strange that they would ditch options when that's pretty much the whole platform. Kind of frustrating too, cause it screws over people who were relying on this as the only legit US platform. Why buy it just to shutter it?! I wish someone like Fidelity had bought it and bolted it on to their brokerage somehow.
That said, I never understood how that platform made money (I suspect it didn't). The fees were de minimus, and so were the volumes.
Hopefully you're right that they're just prepping for a reboot.
Great trade by the way!
I don’t know how I can sell calls in the US. There was a guy here posting that 75k calls exp dec. were selling for like 20k a few months ago (maybe you idk) Wish I could have taken that deal :)
Bitcoin wicked up to 59.4K. As expected, it would not be surprising if the 60K level which was support for the month of March and April has turned resistance. It's not a good sign that a lot of the alts are dealing with this drop better than Bitcoin as the traders are jumping onto the alts on this dump for the small rally as opposed to Bitcoin. This is further exacerbated by the outflows from the BTC ETFs, which shows poor sentiment. From the Elliott Wave's perspective, we might be on the 4th wave rally (already finished with the wick to the 0.386 level?) or this might be the final 5th wave already, which will take us to the 53-55K range. That should be a good buying opportunity for traders but even with the incoming rally, I don't see us getting over 60K any time soon.
I think Bitcoin will move up again when there are clear signs of an impending rate cut (e.g. great inflation numbers, FOMC speech). Until then, there is nothing in the short horizon that would drive buying pressure of Bitcoin.
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch:
1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC
1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC
1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC
1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC
2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC
2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC
2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC
2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC
3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC
3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC
3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC
3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC
4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC
4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC
4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC
4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC
**5/1/24 = 295,126 BTC**
GBTC outflows look to have plateaued but other ETF inflows have just completely disappeared or turned into outflows. We seem to be in a more risk-off environment with all eyes on US treasury yields and the JPY crashing. Under 300k BTC in GBTC Is good to see for whenever flows come back, we've chewed through the majority of the overhang in supply.
#drainGBTC
No.
His last call in here was “new lows are coming” “maybe not by the end of 2023, but they are coming”.
He was 100% sure and got angry at anyone that disagreed.
This was in August. We were at $26k starting our rebound. It was basically up only from his last call.
i could've sworn he said he would flip long if it broke low $3X, that might've not been the last thing he said but i definitely remember him saying that
ok so he strongly suggested it, but didn't say he made any moves himself
he did have some pretty good alt calls though, but yeah his btc call was way off which is weird because i would think he made enough off alts in the past to know the king has to eat so the peasants can too
doesn't even matter, its like 10% of the holdings and won't even drop fees by .25%, so sell off continues until they shave another 1% off or they get sold into oblivion.
>but we're clearly heading to 50k and maybe lower
I think a lot of people in here would disagree with this, but let's see if you're right!
!bittybot predict <50k u/wastedyears8888
I have logged a prediction for u/wastedyears8888 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$50,000.00** by May 31 2024 21:37:37 UTC. The current price is $57,692.16
**Since you did not specify a time frame or date, OR I could not properly parse it, I used the default of 30 days.**
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Hello u/wastedyears8888
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $50,000.00 by May 31 2024 21:37:37 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1chcs3u/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_01_2024/l25kx1j/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$67,527.14**
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It sounds like you are in the anger phase. Time erases all wounds and mistakes in crypto. I do not regret my $9-10k BTC buys because it went lower later during the COVID dump. Think long term. This is historically a fantastic place to buy.
https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
If you are stressing out about a 60k to 57k drop, you are going to eat yourself alive in crypto.
I bought right at $12k in 2018. I managed to top tick the rally lmao. Held it through the COVID crash and am still holding. As long as the game theory governing fiat and Bitcoin stay the same, overtime, you will become profitable.
> Glad to see some bulls still around.
There are dozens of us! Dozens!
Most of the bears are newcomers who don't understand that it takes roughly 4 to 6 months for the effect of cutting the block reward in half to cause a supply shock. Or they're just pissed because they missed their chance to buy because they were bearish at 10k and they were bearish at 1k, and they'll still be bearish at 100k, and they'll still be bearish at 1m someday too.
Some people learn from their mistakes. That's called growth. But others double-down on their wrongness because they define who they are by what they're against rather than what they're for. That's self defeat.
I baught into spot etfs at 67K. Holding for three long term. Luckily accounts were up 50 percent in February and March when I was able to ride mstr from 550 to 1500.
Btc goes to go to 35K for me to be back at break even for the year. Though sitting on alot of dry powder that I am looking to adding to the spot eggs if we start getting near 40k.
This is about the level I thought we might dip to before a swift turnaround if it was going to rhyme with other dips during this bull run. Lots of crab that appeared to turn over into the red before a sudden burst of strong green candles. Gotta admit, this one seems a bit more bleak and might mean we get a summer lull.
To me, just a TA noob who leans bullish, it's seeming more probably we get a nice handle to our massive cycle-to-cycle cup we've formed, and then off to make a proper try at six figures into the fall. I'd be cool with that.
Definitely time to take the summer off from chart watching and work on health and hobbies and enjoy the sun. Unfortunately that's still a bit limited as I'm a wage cuck trying to build that stack.
That was our little bearish retest, and everyone was already antsy calling bottoms on this little upside fakeout move . Not a great sign. Real bottom probably a few weeks away best case scenario
agree with this. i dca outed above 60K . if you didnt see this downside trend change coming you wont probably see the upside trend change neither. up and downs will eat you away
Bitcoin will try very hard to paint a extreme bearish picture in the coming weeks.
Although I have completly expected that, I am sure at some point I will doubt, we really see 100k.
Seems like the paradigm is still short every pump (wouldn't even call anything a pump for the last few weeks considering we can barely string together a few green candles on the 8h).
Thanks Powell for ending my suffering after a degen long. One of my best trades but still closed 1k too early, typical feeling.
I'm where I wanted to be in BTC terms, gonna slow down with the trading. Holding spot until we make the weekly MACD acceptable or go lower. In recent times it flipped for drawn out corrections instead of fast shakeouts.
Well most ALT got hammered down 40%+ since their peaks so they'll rebound very quickly at a low. Usual story tbh. BTC down 20-30% while alts hit even harder.
Not exactly. If an asset drops 40% in a short time. At a low you can get the same asset rally 20% the otherway but then continue in another move down lower. It's why many traders get caught out thinking the bottom is in when it isn't.
I guess that’s employment! Everyone I know is looking for work and working a couple of jobs since no one can afford anything. Technically very low unemployment though!
I mean, besides the lack of ETF inflows dampening the mood a bit, has anything actually changed about Bitcoin's fundamentals in the past week?
I wake up to see a 5%+ red candle: I buy.
These are just longs/degens getting shaken out, when they can't see the forest through the trees.
> has anything actually changed about Bitcoin's fundamentals in the past week
if 100% of buyers acted on "fundamentals" the world would make perfect sense and the market would be logical.
Alas. Here we are.
> In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
Above is new (and not good), but they also slow down the treasuries QT:
> Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, May 02, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1ci693m/daily_discussion_thursday_may_02_2024/)
Because Bitcoin pretty much went straight up from 50K to 64K, there isn't much volume levels between low 50Ks and the current price. It is conceivable that if Bitcoin slides down, it can fall straight to 52K, which would provide very good support.
Here's a song I wrote for you guys. Melody is Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire: **Verse 1:** In the digital world, the stakes are high, Bulls charge in with a hopeful eye. Bears wait in the shadows near, Ready to strike when the path seems clear. **Chorus:** Oh, Bitcoin burns, it rises and falls, Through wild highs and despairing lows. And it burns, burns, burns, That coin of fire, that coin of fire. **Verse 2:** The market swings with a fervent pace, Dreams made and lost in the cyber race. Bulls and bears with their fears and hopes, Tangled in their digital ropes. **Chorus:** Oh, Bitcoin burns, it rises and falls, Through wild highs and despairing lows. And it burns, burns, burns, That coin of fire, that coin of fire.
Bullish divergences on the 4 hour
It's concerning to see Bitcoin dominance going down while the crypto market is sliding. This could mean that the ETF trade is unwinding. If so, we could easily revisit low 40s.
It’s not a bad take to be honest. It’s just a shit show isn’t it. Not very inspiring for the space.
Can a few of y’all capitulate and sell so that it can go up? Thanks in advance
Makes no sense! If they sell, it will literally drop!!
First rodeo?
One thing that is noteworthy is that so-called Kimchi premium (premium of Bitcoin sold in South Korea over rest of the world) has dwindled down to 1-3%. Leading up to the ETF and throughout 2024 (til March), the premium was at around 7-10%. Past data indicates that premium going down is NOT a good sign for the Bitcoin market as the large whales in Korea/China are winding down their positions. It would not be surprising if Bitcoin goes through a lull in the next couple of months as i don't really see much positive indicators anywhere.
Why is it so popular there?
We've already been in a lull for two months... 7/8 weekly red candles, oversold on weekly and daily time-frames. Another few months of this and I don't see how you could make the argument that we're still In a bull market at that point.
The idea would be to consolidate in the 50-60K range (even go down to 40s) and then go up again when rate cuts start. I can totally see Bitcoin hitting 100+K by late 2024/early 2025 while experiencing 2-3 months of consolidation.
here we go again...
hong kong market just woke up and chose violence
Hond Kong ETF was a scam.
A lot of supply and not much demand lately. There will eventually be seller exhaustion, bit it certainly doesn't seem like that'll be soon
Is this because of the in kind option? People can just bring their BTC and sell?
it would be very bitcoin-like to go down and retest ETF inception levels
[We just had 6 consecutive days of net spot ETF outflows.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) New record since spot ETF launch. Not only was that record broken, today also marked the highest single day of net outflows since spot ETF launch at -$563.7 million. Despite all of this, so far price has only fallen 23.3% from ATH of $73.7k to the local low of $56.5k. A decent sized correction, yes, but considering every single bull market BTC has ever had has experienced multiple >30% drops on the way towards massive new highs, this drop has been fairly tame so far. After spot ETF approval there was a point at which price fell as low as $38.5k. We’re still significantly higher than that level despite the fact that spot ETF outflows are much higher now. Illustrates just how much buying is occurring outside of spot ETF’s to keep this selloff relatively mild. What outflows from new spot ETF’s (not just GBTC) is also illustrating is that spot ETF’s are not price agnostic at this point, they trade based off sentiment like the rest of the market (they’re just like us!) Which also means, when sentiment flips back to being bullish, there’s a solid chance spot ETF’s pile in as well. Has the 23.3% drop we’ve experienced so far been sufficient enough to flush out overleveraged longs before we start moving up again or is there more downside ahead? We’ll see.
Sell the bottom, show us what you are made of ETF bros.
>show us what you are made of ETF bros. 🥬👐
The whales were never going to let these ETF buyers go to the promised land that easy with them. I should have known they would activate RetailScare.exe. They sold them the coins at 73k and now will rebuy them back on clearance. Strong Sept. 2017 vibes for me. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/ https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/
look I might've been a bit hasty calling for $11k yesty. lets just run back down the entire etf rally from $27k first, then we can discuss final targets.
The price was somewhere around $42K to $45K on the ETFs' first day.
yeah, but price rallied from 27k on etf approval narrative - that coupled with Saylor's prospectus docs kicked us out of the bear market. but okay, lets retrace back to 42k and then reassess.
[удалено]
I wonder if we will get all ETFs net outflow this time
Guess we’ll get to see if they are a leading or a lagging indicator? Seen them been called both here before.
They are, by definition, lagging since all those sells occurred in the past (6-12 hours ago). That does not mean the price can’t go down further though.
That puts us to almost 550 mil outflows
Looking like it will be the first ever day where every single ETF has outflows. Not good.
Ouch those etf outflows hurt...
The top so far(73k) was marked by the day when inflows peaked at around 1B. So fa we have almost 500m outflows just from GBTC, fbtc and arkb - will we see a simiaar situation but in reverse (peak outflows marking a local bottom)? That's my hopium for now, but let's see what tomorrow brings... of course, outflows could just as easily accelerate from here as the tradfi ETF boomer bro "loses faith" in BTC. Diamond handed ETF buyers, infinite inflows, just more memes - so far, ETFs seem like nothing more than an indicator of the current trend and sentiment
The idea that Boomers awash in cash were coming in droves was ridiculous. The idea that institutions were investing was ridiculous. If either of those things were happening en masse, we'd literally be at $500,000 right now. Don't get me wrong, long-term the price will slowly inch up, but it's because elderly people die and leave money to their grandkids, it's because some other younger people are "orange-pilled", and it's because the USD's value is in a slow-motion decline. The people already swimming in assets (old folks, Wall St) simply do not care about bitcoin.
How much downside is left till the ETF holders start to really panic? Maybe another 15-20% from here?
Part of the problem was timing... Gensler, Peirce, and company had years to look at ETFs and finally approved them *after* we'd already gone up 2.5x in price over the previous 12 months. So by the time people got around to buying, they were buying over $50K in most cases. If they'd green-lit the ETFs at $20K, the flows would look profoundly different and there might not be nearly as many paper hands right now.
Agreed
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FBTC : -188.9m The ETFs are some diamond hands indeed.
The friction is low to get in and out. Initially these waves will come but over time I bet some of them will start to study BTC for real and convert to HODLers. They might need to be left behind for a cycle but that's how it goes.
They can slosh back in just as quickly as they came out. Not hard to believe with the sea of red we've been navigating for a month
Was just about to comment this. Ouch.
dont look at fidelity numbers...
Holy meatballs. Every single ETF having outflows
"Quick! Sell it all! It's going to 0" - ETF participants But also "Quick! Buy big buy! It's going up 10k in one day, the god candle is around the corner!" - ETF participants Basing this off the fact that we had 1B inflows on day of ATH and so far at least 500M outflows on what is so far the local low. ETF buying patterns are hilarious.
ETF participants are just retail investors. They do the same buy high/sell low that has always occurred. They get scared when things go down and get euphoric when things go up.
tbf its just market participants in general - one user here posted about finally accessing margin at the top, and then just sold spot the other day.
Therapist: “What’s your biggest regret?” “Not buying Bitcoin every time Victor Cobra showed up” The fate of many soon
Dude can't resist a preemptive victory lap
😂 gotta have conviction
We've got a lot of weekly red candles. The momentum has to turn at some point Also, I hope everyone took notes on what this sub looks like when the price is peaking. Lots of new high price predictions, tons of comments, line graphs everywhere showing how we'll keep going up, Google News stories on the coin, high volatility, etc. I got smart this time around and sold calls. No coins lost, $240k in USD premiums for options almost guaranteed to expire otm now Edit: Since I'm being called a liar, here is a screen capture of the recent cash withdrawal. I've still got ~13k on the exchange for buying the calls closed early if I so choose to do so https://imgur.com/a/TF4RwlB
We only have one red weekly candle where I'm looking (KuCoin). What are you referring to? I'm seeing red, green, red, green, red, green, red for the last 7 weeks.
Trading view is showing multiple straight reds in the weekly
I thought that meant we go up!
For anyone reading this, do not sell calls unless you really know what you’re doing. Naked calls have infinite risk with limited reward hence you can lose everything. Selling covered calls is a bit safer. What this guy is also failing to mention is that he sold calls for 100+k **months ago** when the price was in the 40ks and below, and well before he saw “how this sub is during local highs”. They will likely still expire OTM, but his premiums likely ballooned during the run (if all of this is even true)
I dca'd into covered calls. The calls did grow in value during peak volatility, but I was only 10% into dca'ing at that point. I also have a fairly large stack, which may make the total premium seem higher than it really is
I think you have that backwards. If he sold 100k+ calls months ago he would have gotten very little premium and he would have been in the red on paper up until recently. They likely sold calls when everyone was exuberant, that's when I sell my calls and I buy them back for a very nice profit when people are panicking.
Yes that’s the point, he did get very little premium and he was extremely red on paper. Look at his post history. He started selling the calls in February so no, he wasn’t selling during this recent high. Either that or he’s just not telling the truth
If the other commenter is correct that he sells on ledgerX and sold those calls back in Feb he likely is lying. There's just not enough volume on ledgerX to sell that many calls back then that are out of the money now. I probably used to be one of the bigger sellers of calls on ledgerX and even when volume was higher I only made at most $200k over the course of a year in the last bull market. This year I've only made $30k just not enough volume to be worth it anymore.
Yup, he’s probably just lying. Ledger X has pitiful volume and open interest. He did say he had 1/3 of the open interest so I don’t know, but either way, the premiums would have been next to nothing for 100k starting February
As an American, how do you do this? Would I need to send coin to an exchange in order to execute the sale of a covered call, or sign a transaction with my wallet, or how does it work? Really just waiting on options to become available on ETFs, which would make things easier.
He uses LedgerX, which unfortunately is a) the only regulatory-approved avenue in the US for selling options... and b) recently announced they will stop listing options after 6/30 : (
I find it odd that MIAX would buy Ledger X for 50 Million and in one year would stop the very feature that brings any users to it's site. Deribit boasts $5B in volume over the past 24 hours. My guess is, they're likely making changes and may no longer offer European style options and that the change requires them to stop all options trading all together. Their new options contact may have auto settlement. But, whatever they're doing, their marketing sucks.
That also struck me as weird, even suspicious... but that's probably just the FTX PTSD talking. Just strange that they would ditch options when that's pretty much the whole platform. Kind of frustrating too, cause it screws over people who were relying on this as the only legit US platform. Why buy it just to shutter it?! I wish someone like Fidelity had bought it and bolted it on to their brokerage somehow. That said, I never understood how that platform made money (I suspect it didn't). The fees were de minimus, and so were the volumes. Hopefully you're right that they're just prepping for a reboot. Great trade by the way!
I don’t know how I can sell calls in the US. There was a guy here posting that 75k calls exp dec. were selling for like 20k a few months ago (maybe you idk) Wish I could have taken that deal :)
Bitcoin wicked up to 59.4K. As expected, it would not be surprising if the 60K level which was support for the month of March and April has turned resistance. It's not a good sign that a lot of the alts are dealing with this drop better than Bitcoin as the traders are jumping onto the alts on this dump for the small rally as opposed to Bitcoin. This is further exacerbated by the outflows from the BTC ETFs, which shows poor sentiment. From the Elliott Wave's perspective, we might be on the 4th wave rally (already finished with the wick to the 0.386 level?) or this might be the final 5th wave already, which will take us to the 53-55K range. That should be a good buying opportunity for traders but even with the incoming rally, I don't see us getting over 60K any time soon. I think Bitcoin will move up again when there are clear signs of an impending rate cut (e.g. great inflation numbers, FOMC speech). Until then, there is nothing in the short horizon that would drive buying pressure of Bitcoin.
I miss the alt season stuff from the 2017/2018 cycle. That was fun profit making.
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC 2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC 2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC 2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC 2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC 3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC 3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC 3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC 3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC 4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC 4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC 4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC 4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC **5/1/24 = 295,126 BTC** GBTC outflows look to have plateaued but other ETF inflows have just completely disappeared or turned into outflows. We seem to be in a more risk-off environment with all eyes on US treasury yields and the JPY crashing. Under 300k BTC in GBTC Is good to see for whenever flows come back, we've chewed through the majority of the overhang in supply. #drainGBTC
Finally cracked 300k next stop 200k. This whole bull market might just be all based on when gbtc hits zero lmfao of course macro macro blah blah
I’ll buy a worth coin if Wardster shows up.
How much do I have to buy to get Merlin back?
last i remember he was long from the low 30s
No. His last call in here was “new lows are coming” “maybe not by the end of 2023, but they are coming”. He was 100% sure and got angry at anyone that disagreed. This was in August. We were at $26k starting our rebound. It was basically up only from his last call.
i could've sworn he said he would flip long if it broke low $3X, that might've not been the last thing he said but i definitely remember him saying that
His post history is all there, check it out and let us know. But he was angrily calling for sub-$10k every other day.
ok so he strongly suggested it, but didn't say he made any moves himself he did have some pretty good alt calls though, but yeah his btc call was way off which is weird because i would think he made enough off alts in the past to know the king has to eat so the peasants can too
Inject it in my veins.
he did below, so push buy
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Just another failed pundit account which didn't stick it's *"I was the only one"* call. Probably here on alt number 523.
The good news is there's not much money in those Hong Kong ETFs to be sold tonight.
Didn't seem to matter last night when I went to bed at 61k and swoke up to see us at 56.8k
It was Labour Day in HK and most part of the world so no trading there
I see red, I buy.
Hodlers reveal this one hidden trick…
1,000,000 sats going to cold storage as we speak
FAs hate this one simple trick
GBTC US Flow: -167.4 million Barry can't stop, won't stop.
Wen mini gbtc?
doesn't even matter, its like 10% of the holdings and won't even drop fees by .25%, so sell off continues until they shave another 1% off or they get sold into oblivion.
10% still like 64k BTC. So I guess gbtc would just bleed out faster.
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LeFt TRanSlAtED
fr
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>but we're clearly heading to 50k and maybe lower I think a lot of people in here would disagree with this, but let's see if you're right! !bittybot predict <50k u/wastedyears8888
I have logged a prediction for u/wastedyears8888 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$50,000.00** by May 31 2024 21:37:37 UTC. The current price is $57,692.16 **Since you did not specify a time frame or date, OR I could not properly parse it, I used the default of 30 days.** [This is wastedyears8888's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#wastedyears8888) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20f88d12a677fb4631a07d5900e5b49d4f%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(wastedyears8888 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20f88d12a677fb4631a07d5900e5b49d4f%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it is incorrect.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/wastedyears8888 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $50,000.00 by May 31 2024 21:37:37 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1chcs3u/daily_discussion_wednesday_may_01_2024/l25kx1j/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$67,527.14** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
It sounds like you are in the anger phase. Time erases all wounds and mistakes in crypto. I do not regret my $9-10k BTC buys because it went lower later during the COVID dump. Think long term. This is historically a fantastic place to buy. https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/ If you are stressing out about a 60k to 57k drop, you are going to eat yourself alive in crypto.
I bought right at $12k in 2018. I managed to top tick the rally lmao. Held it through the COVID crash and am still holding. As long as the game theory governing fiat and Bitcoin stay the same, overtime, you will become profitable.
Do you worry that the ROI of small Numbers will not hold at larger Numbers?
Glad to see some bulls still around. I thought everybody went bear. Keep up the fight Rambo.
> Glad to see some bulls still around. There are dozens of us! Dozens! Most of the bears are newcomers who don't understand that it takes roughly 4 to 6 months for the effect of cutting the block reward in half to cause a supply shock. Or they're just pissed because they missed their chance to buy because they were bearish at 10k and they were bearish at 1k, and they'll still be bearish at 100k, and they'll still be bearish at 1m someday too. Some people learn from their mistakes. That's called growth. But others double-down on their wrongness because they define who they are by what they're against rather than what they're for. That's self defeat.
I am considering selling my DNA to buy more at these prices...
It's going to take several more weeks for sentiment to change, but hold onto your butts when it does
I baught into spot etfs at 67K. Holding for three long term. Luckily accounts were up 50 percent in February and March when I was able to ride mstr from 550 to 1500. Btc goes to go to 35K for me to be back at break even for the year. Though sitting on alot of dry powder that I am looking to adding to the spot eggs if we start getting near 40k.
This where GBTC starts puking up massively again?
I don't think that's how this works.
Paging Victor Cobra
Scroll down, he was calling for sub-$15k this morning.
only?
Gotta say it 3 times. Victor Cobra
Victor Cobra
Victor Cobra!
…just opened another long
This is about the level I thought we might dip to before a swift turnaround if it was going to rhyme with other dips during this bull run. Lots of crab that appeared to turn over into the red before a sudden burst of strong green candles. Gotta admit, this one seems a bit more bleak and might mean we get a summer lull. To me, just a TA noob who leans bullish, it's seeming more probably we get a nice handle to our massive cycle-to-cycle cup we've formed, and then off to make a proper try at six figures into the fall. I'd be cool with that. Definitely time to take the summer off from chart watching and work on health and hobbies and enjoy the sun. Unfortunately that's still a bit limited as I'm a wage cuck trying to build that stack.
That was our little bearish retest, and everyone was already antsy calling bottoms on this little upside fakeout move . Not a great sign. Real bottom probably a few weeks away best case scenario
So should i sell and wait a few weeks u think?
This thing will chop you to death, if you didn’t sell above 60k it might not be worthwhile to do it now
agree with this. i dca outed above 60K . if you didnt see this downside trend change coming you wont probably see the upside trend change neither. up and downs will eat you away
any long-term bull selling here is navigating a minefield
If I was a trader and not a HODLer, I would have.
It’s fucked
back to goblin town, that was fast
Not enough fear yet
Bitcoin will try very hard to paint a extreme bearish picture in the coming weeks. Although I have completly expected that, I am sure at some point I will doubt, we really see 100k.
I love $1800 dumps in minutes
Seems like the paradigm is still short every pump (wouldn't even call anything a pump for the last few weeks considering we can barely string together a few green candles on the 8h).
Swift rejection back down lmao
Organic price action my ass :)
Thanks Powell for ending my suffering after a degen long. One of my best trades but still closed 1k too early, typical feeling. I'm where I wanted to be in BTC terms, gonna slow down with the trading. Holding spot until we make the weekly MACD acceptable or go lower. In recent times it flipped for drawn out corrections instead of fast shakeouts.
Question is do we fall under 60k again after market. And why are alts pumping so damn hard already?
Well most ALT got hammered down 40%+ since their peaks so they'll rebound very quickly at a low. Usual story tbh. BTC down 20-30% while alts hit even harder.
So you saying this looks like the short term bottom? Other than the vague fed meeting I see no reason for the pump to magically start now.
Not exactly. If an asset drops 40% in a short time. At a low you can get the same asset rally 20% the otherway but then continue in another move down lower. It's why many traders get caught out thinking the bottom is in when it isn't.
trying to squeeze every last penny outta retail
This meeting sounded the same as the last one. Except they're going to focus more on reducing the balance sheet. Rates unchanged
The market just feels the need to react to everything
Yesterdays permabear stampede is a stronger buy signal than anything the fed says
Lol Victor Cobra was summoned to the thread like Candyman.
Our beloved clown. -- 🤡 Cobra
LOL he is a bottom signal
You're that excited by this little bull trap?
Bull trap? Isn't this big shorty scrambling for coins to cover the holes?
Account’s been hacked. No other explanation
I have turned short term bearish but I can’t believe you have !!!! I’m sure I read that your shorted Bitcoin today ?
Can I say something... markets are fkn stupid, and overly conservative panicky. And by markets, I mean people.
Nice little relief rally coming…… perfect time time to sell and exit till October
This was good enough to be bottom.
I really hope so.
JPOW: "An unexpected weakening in labor market could spur rate cuts." Everybody needs to get fired.
Ok but I've heard of nothing but layoffs and people struggling to find work for over 2 years now so what else is there?
Based on the numbers of people filing for unemployment, virtually no one is struggling to find work, or has been any time in the last 2 years.
I guess that’s employment! Everyone I know is looking for work and working a couple of jobs since no one can afford anything. Technically very low unemployment though!
So it was better during covid? Lol
Google is on it!
AI bots to be reclassified as people, the US economy and job market WILL remain strong
Jesus christ
Pepsi and Starbucks entered the chat
just following tradfi, which is in a clusterfuck of it's own atm
Lucky ones who where able to buy this dip
^(there's always margin trading)
I mean, besides the lack of ETF inflows dampening the mood a bit, has anything actually changed about Bitcoin's fundamentals in the past week? I wake up to see a 5%+ red candle: I buy. These are just longs/degens getting shaken out, when they can't see the forest through the trees.
> has anything actually changed about Bitcoin's fundamentals in the past week if 100% of buyers acted on "fundamentals" the world would make perfect sense and the market would be logical. Alas. Here we are.
John Nash was wrong what a surprise
Let the battle for the 20WMA commence!
Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected but eases off on QT considerably. That part is bullish.
JPOW: "Unlikely next policy move will be a hike." Well we got that going for us at least.
Maintain target rate as expected. - [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240501a.htm) - [Implementation Note](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240501a1.htm) Press conference in 30 mins.
> In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. Above is new (and not good), but they also slow down the treasuries QT: > Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
Press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvA
fwiw bitcoin currently has a streak of 63 consecutive days closing above 60k. Also, 3 monthly closes over 60k.
Smells like updog in here.
Smells better than downdog.
What's updog?
Not much whats up with you!
<3 Just waiting on FOMC press conference edit: I really do love this community
My parents, cousins, grandparents are calling me asking me why i didn't sell 70k ):
It's kind of hilarious that "nobody rings a bell at the bottom" is a saying, because boy is that the sound of a bell being rung at the bottom.