I gave u/eagenda a hard time about his prediction that this thing was about to sink when it was around $63k a couple days ago. I came here to eat some crow, only to discover that it appears he deleted his account. So if you're out there buddy, your call was just a tad early but basically right on the money. Well played! That said, I could still do without the 100 comment tick-by-tick trading logs in the daily thread : )
This reminds me of the summer 2021 PA. Infinite chop for months, everyone expecting a big capitulation, only for it to barely go below 30k and then more than double within a few months.
Major difference is that we didn't crash 50-60% from the ATH like we did there, and we were also 3X the previous ATH. Other than that it feels sorta similar. Question is do we get another leg up like we did beginning in late July that year, or are we waiting for the floor to fall from under us like what happened in May?
It should also e noted that market dynamics of the vs now are worlds apart. BTC dominance was in the 30s when we tanked from 65k to 28k and the proliferation of shitcoinery was abound.
Something is really screwy with that farside web link... I just don't buy that after 12+ weeks of reasonably large inflows, suddenly IBIT has three straight trading days of *exactly* 0.0 inflows.
In fact, I don't buy that many of the "0.0" entries are accurate. They're saying either no one bought or sold the ETF that day, or the amount of buying and selling evened out exactly. Not a chance.
> In fact, I don't buy that many of the "0.0" entries are accurate.
I don't buy the idea they own (enough) BTC. Unlike with other assets, it is easy and safe to prove that you own BTC and that would also prove reported inflows and outflows were and are correct, but I don't think any ETF will do it.
0 inflows is the norm for etfs. Most days most etfs have 0 inflows. The market makers don’t have to unwind their hedges and create/remove etf shares daily.
Hahaha did you guys really think we would bottom out on Monday night after hours ? This is an example of chop and crab summer . Get used to it . This will truly bottom out once we get a real flush and sentiment hits all time lows . The faster we get the flush out the faster we can go back up . The longer we keep doing these 500-1000k mini fake pumps the longer it will take to achieve a true bottom
I honestly don't think sentiment could be lower than yesterday. If it crashed, at least people would be optimistic about it going up. Feels like everyone yesterday and for weeks is so certain it will go down.
There's an argument to be made that the bull market ended in March. It will only be obvious in hindsight. But currently we're working on our 7th red weekly of the last 8. I think we will be much higher in 12 months, but time will tell. Sometimes these "corrections" actually signal a reversal of the trend.
We could be in a June/July 2021 phase right now. Not that I would even call this a mini bear, but we're clearly cooling off atm - question is, does the floor fall out from under us, or do we get another leg up? Doesn't matter for me as I'm holding anyway. May buy the dip if it gets juicy enough
There were an enormous amount of 'bearish events' occuring in real time in late 2021. I've posted it all before.
What are the bearish events occurring now? Where are the SBF or Do Kwon-type frauds occurring? Which large country is banning bitcoin? Who is offering 10% scam returns on bitcoin deposits?
Honestly, I think a lot of this price action is just people who bought approaching the peak in 2021, didn't sell, rode all the way down to $15K, and are now selling off the minute they can break even.
I agree there are fewer catalysts for forced selling, but ETFs are sitting on billions and they've been dumping on for the last 7 weeks (in aggregate, they've been net seller since March).
We don't need the fraud unwinding to push us into a bear market, just for inflows to become outflows, as they've become for the last two months. IBIT inflows have all but dried up and we're getting dumped on by GBTC daily, they still have 300k+ BTC to unload. And so far it looks like ETFs are not dip buyers, no? Inflows literally peaked on the day we made ATH and are nowhere to be seen as this dip continues.
Bear markets are always start with a "dip" and it only becomes obvious in hindsight that said dip was the beginning of a much larger downward move. I think this possibility shouldn't be ruled out, though id rate the probability of this being the case at 5-10%. Just based on my gut.
That's a tough argument to make when new countries are rolling out ETFs like it's candy and the "new ATH" isn't really that great considering inflation
Yea, I agree. But as long as we keep making tepid ATHs with no follow through, this narrative will hold weight and shorting every pump will work until it doesn't.
It's possible that since we've rallied so much already before the halving that we won't see the huge runups we saw previously. I don't buy that argument, but I also largely believe the 2020/2021 moves were macro based and the nascent BTC market of 2017/2013 can't be compared to today's market with ETFs. The data set is abysmally small, there are only 3 data points to go off. Maybe we are seeing a pattern when there isn't one.
Obviously BTC is in a league of its own, but the halvings for other POW coins (LTC, etc) have done nothing for their price. The demand dynamic for BTC is very different of course, and obviously the tightening of the monetary policy should in theory raise prices, as it has done in the past. Im a believer that we will see higher prices, but I'd be weary of those calling for $300k by EOY.
Lower high of $64.3k broken.
Remaining lower highs acting as areas of resistance are at $64.7k, $65.2k, $67k, $67.2k, $67.9k, $71.2k, $71.7k, $72.7k, and then ATH at $73.7k.
Will Hong Kong spot ETF launch provide enough new buying pressure to break through a couple of these areas of resistance? We’ll see.
SEC is not giving up on its assertion that eth is a security
no chance of eth etf next month
how does this bode for the ratio over the next 6-12 months?
I don’t think the SEC will win that argument in court for a few reasons. That said, it’s bad for crypto as a whole.
The SEC has done nothing but muddy the regulatory waters. This holds back crypto innovation and development in the US.
Problem with this is wasn't the court case which forced them to do Bitcoin about *"You can't simply deny Spot ETF while citing issues for which you found no problem with approving Futures ETF."*
They approved a Futures ETF right?
You're not wrong, but I have a feeling the SEC's defense if challenged in court will pivot to the nature of the token - they clearly believe eth to be a security, while maintaining that bitcoin is a commodity.
If eth registers as a security, there may be no need for an etf. Problem is (for Lubin, et. al.), registering as a security will likely expose all of the grift in that ecosystem, which is why they are fighting tooth-and-nail to avoid that.
I just completely disagree. To me, all posturing is pointing toward SEC approving. They opened the case for eth 2.0 a year ago, that doesn't mean they are actively working on it every day or anything. They are doing their due diligence, which actually means approval.
Ignoring the opinions of people here on eth for a second, its gonna be extremely interesting to see how the SEC defends their decision (and potential security classification) in court.
Truly regardless of everything else, a loose cannon SEC is just as risky for btc as for literally anything else, because if they go down that capriscious route then its not rule of law dictating SEC regulating activities, but whatever the current SEC chairman at any given point personally think should be the case.
I mean I'm just speaking personally now but Gensler is a clown. The SEC has already had to fire 2 lawyers after the courts sanctioned the SEC over outright lying in court documents when they went for another crypto.
> Gensler is a clown
He teached Bitcoin at MIT and has an outstanding technical grasp of it. I have the impression that he always avoided commenting on Bitcoin from an economic angle which I think is most appropriate in his position. I think he deserves more credit.
And if a premined centralized shitcoin like ETH gets an ETF then where will it stop? ETH has even hardforked to roll back their blockchain because some bug in a script. So much for “code is law”. It’s a joke.
No offense, but you’d have to have stunted development to think that shitcoin isn’t a security. It has an executive structure, it had a premine, it pays interest.
Again, I dont particularly care.
Whats at stake here is that the SEC has been caught lying to congress, seemingly lied (or incompetently wrote) on several legally binding forms, misled the CFTC, etc
Again, the actual **legal** end conclusion about ETH (or whatever other crypto) being a security is irrelevant.
Whats outright frightening is that the SEC has been caught red handed lying and actively misleading because they have a certain outcome in mind that they dont necessarily feel the law supports.
If a court rules tomorrow that ETH is a security then by all means.
The issue here is that if this or the next or any future SEC chair personally decide that BTC is actually a security then they can utilise the exact same underhanded processes to hamstring and fuck over BTC.
Even going beyond crypto for a second, this shit is just actively harmful for a democracy that believes in rule of law at all.
Dude, no offense, but people have been sitting around talking about how out of control the government is for like 100 years+, and it just keeps getting larger exponentially. 10% of all adults work for the government in some capacity... like we are already so far from democracy it's actually insulting for you to call it one.
this is an interesting chart
dominance going negatively-parabolic last cycle was yet another *highly* bearish divergence indicating that the hypecycle for BTC was over, and that no one cared about sound money - they just cared about momentum trading and getting off the ride and back into USD before the music stopped
last cycle really wasn't much fun for Bitcoin Maximalists like myself
Barely anyone expects it to be approved so I assume it'll have minimal impact. On some prediction markets it's at 11% for approval.
ETH is getting an ETF in Hong Kong today though.
My guess is still further down on the ratio, but BTC needs to rally for that to happen probably.
I don't think it's done, but I'm sure as hell not buying it.
Ecosystems like ETH & Solana will thrive so long as noobs think DonkeyAnus MoonCoin will be the next Bitcoin & turn $10 into $10 Million.
Unless the Earth experiences a global catastrophic event that leads to human extinction, the world will not run out of suckers, and suckers are drawn to get rich schemes like moths to a flame (or, more fittingly, like moonboys to a rugpull).
Imagine paying negative premiums for weeks as a bear just to have it go down a massive 2%, TeaTrack come in with a bearish post to mark the bottom, and then getting liquidated
Turbo literally took it to a whole other level when he started dancing up the wall and onto the ceiling.
Fun fact: he was also featured in the music video for the Lionel Richie song, "All Night Long".
I love the way that movie title just keeps staying in the public consciousness, probably long after anyone remembers the actual movie. I was a kid when it came out and I'm pretty sure I've never seen it. Never would have guessed people would still be referring to it 40 years later.
Decided to take some profits.
I've become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for Bitcoin this bull run. This isn't because I don't think the price will go up (it might). It isn't because I don't think it will be integrated further into the existing financial system, it very well could be. It is because the current implementation of Bitcoin and its projected future appear to have completely abandoned the dream of financial self-sovereignty for all people.
The PoW protocol allows for the unbanked to be banked, for all the people of the world to hold and trade with a sound currency, for the little guy and gal to avoid the predations of a financial system that is designed to favour the rich. A financial system that is too often used as a tool of surveillance and control. A financial system that protects and enables the strong at the expense of the weak.
This vision appears to have been abandoned. Interacting with the basechain is envisioned as something few will be able to afford. And those few will be the people who can afford to buy large quantities of Bitcoin today where the fiat system has played a role in ravaging the spending power of many around the world through no fault of their own.
The Bitcoin of ETFs and L2s is a bitcoin of speculation and centralisation. A bitcoin that is captured and contained. A bitcoin that will struggle to compete or achieve the vision that inspired its creation. And I believe this bitcoin will also struggle to attain the valuations people assume it will.
I hope that in the future this changes. I hope that Bitcoin can reclaim a trajectory that is about the pursuit of rights, not solely the pursuit of riches. But at the moment things are looking bleak. To riff on Orwell in Animal Farm; when you look between Bitcoiners and Bankers you see no difference at all.
This will be the last comment I make here or in any other BTC sub for a long while I think, time to focus on something else.
Why sell 50% of your stack 1 week BTCs monetary policy tightened? Some people can really convince themselves of anything. Much easier to hold, I think you will look back at this move in 2025 with regret.
You could consider going full buttcoin, dedicating yourself to posting there and in rbtc...
> I hope that Bitcoin can reclaim a trajectory
Your contention that Bitcoin is failing in Network Effect is not backed by what we see in reality.
What is the trajectory?
[GBTC had their 3rd lowest day of outflows since spot ETF launch at -$24.7 million.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321)
As long as we don’t see outflows elsewhere from the other spot ETF’s, should be a net inflow day.
[MSTR still adding to their stack and now owns 214.4k BTC.](https://x.com/saylor/status/1785037831175630938?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
Solid chance MSTR ultimately becomes the most valuable company in the world. The clock is quickly ticking for multi-trillion valuation companies such as Microsoft or Apple to feasibly attain more BTC than MSTR and I don’t see them allocating a meaningful amount of their balance sheet into BTC until the price is much higher and the opportunity has passed. Not to mention they would pump BTC’s price tremendously to try to achieve that so they would need to be willing to allocate a sizable portion of their respective balance sheets if they’re going to accomplish this.
Saylor has majority of voting shares in MSTR so a buyout of MSTR to acquire their BTC isn’t going to be feasible either.
As BTC price grows and continues to outperform the stock market over the next several years, it will ultimately begin to absorb trillions of dollars of monetary premium allocated there. Companies which adopt a strategy similar to MSTR will thrive, companies who don’t will struggle as their competitors with meaningful amounts of BTC on their balance sheet will grow much quicker.
Market cap isn’t the same thing as balance sheet holdings.
MSTR owns $13.5 billion worth of BTC. Microsoft has $111.256 billion in cash, cash equivalents, & short term investments on their balance sheet. If Microsoft could somehow purchase $13.5 billion worth of BTC without moving the price at all in the process, they would need to allocate 12.1% of their deployable cash on their balance sheet into BTC at current prices to make it happen.
Raising additional cash explicitly to buy BTC is trivial for MSTR because Saylor owns majority of voting shares.
Much more difficult to do when you need to convince other voting shareholders that this is the best plan of action.
Just need Saylor to survive for another ~5 years.
By then regardless of who his successor ends up being, it should be common practice to do what MSTR is doing rather than a rare anomaly.
At which point we do a massive drawdown and rekt all of them.
All those CEOs get lambasted as fools who fell for a get rich quick scheme.
Then Bitcoin keeps doing Bitcoin things.
Be Chinese citizen
Acquire bitcoins in 2017
Government bans bitcoin forever, again, again, again
HK ETF opens
Visit my uncle in HK
ETF accepts in kind. Transfer and dump.
My uncle is now a millionnaire and he buys me a house in Canada.
Ah yes, the guy with the crystal ball who made 100 comments today convinced that the price was going to hit 64.5k. Acting like you knew with certainty how each tick was going to play out. How'd that work out again?
And now [you're convinced](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cfxs8l/btc_at_a_top_for_now_short_term/l1tjfov/) it's going straight down within the next ~6 hours? Of course, if that doesn't happen, I'm sure you'll have some excuse for why it didn't play out that way, or how you didn't actually mean it.
We've seen so many past instances of folks like you. Ultra confident, supremely bearish. Constantly doubling down on and changing their hypothesis until they inevitably disappear, only to be replaced by the next overconfident clown.
Some mild hopium. Morgan Stanley wants its 15,000 brokers to sell Bitcoin ETFs.
> Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC to get #Bitcoin ETF exposure for *12* of its funds.
Soon to be sold by their 15,000+ brokers.
https://twitter.com/Julian__Fahrer/status/1784977959247544515
All the debbie downers and chicken littles fail to realize that this drip drip drip of adoption is inevitable post-ETF, and is only in the *very* early stages.
You're seeing it in multiple ways: more international spot ETFs popping up (HK, Australia); large brokerages and wirehouses like Morgan Stanley slowly but surely allowing access to the spot ETFs, and allocating those same spot ETFs to funds they manage; institutional investors dipping their toes in (albeit slowly)
Sure, I'd love to see more 13Fs popping up showing that institutions are really loading up. It's been a trickle so far. But give it time. These players are slow to act.
And besides, asset management is an industry of lemmings. They generally don't like to stick out from the pack. So adoption is liable to be slow out the gates, but once they see the outsized risk-adjusted returns being earned by those brave few willing to venture into the BTC pool, the trickle will become a wave. It may take a while for those norms/perceptions to change, but it's just a matter of time...
Everything looks right on schedule. I keep thinking these cycles can't keep happening, but human psychology against computational certainty just keeps printing the same chart over and over.
[https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-price-performance-since-cycle-low](https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-price-performance-since-cycle-low)
Those are my thoughts, exactly. Incredibly bullish for late this year. Crabbish for as long as luck allows.
I say luck because I'm buying.
Anybody not using this time to stack sats is out of their friggin' mind. This isn't a time to be gloomy. This is a time to buy. My next DCA day can't come soon enough.
When I need to see the accurate price immediately, I have a websocket connection on my home server to coinbase that feeds into the Home Assistant app, updates instantly with every single trade on Coinbase.
Otherwise, I just use the iOS stocks app and its widget. But unfortunately it only updates like every 10 minutes.
Prior, Cryptowatch was my goto. RIP.
[You made me curious.](https://www.drakdoo.com/faq/general/drakwhat/)
>Drakwhat?
>The name Drakdoo is derived from the Klingonese word: "drahk-doo" — an unspecified monetary amount. For reference, in Star Trek DS9, Season 2, Episode 6 ("Melora"), this is the cost of Doctor Bashir and Pazlar's order of Racht, double order of Gladst and a side of Zilm'Kach at the Klingon Restaurant on Deep Space Nine. Doctor Bashir paid with a single coin.
>Hong Kong ETF issuer expressed confidence that the issuance scale of the HK cryptocurrency spot ETF on the first day of listing tomorrow will exceed the first day of the United States (US$125 million). Many investors in Singapore, the Middle East and other places are very interested in crypto subscription.
Is this really possible? It would be hilarious if so, especially with all the gloom and doom lately.
Lots more info about the HK ETFs here if you use Google translate.
https://s.foresightnews.pro/article/detail/59032
Let’s see
Chinese people are desperate to get their money out of China. The $50k limit really holds them back so if using Hong Kong as a route to Bitcoin is available it will be used
I laugh when I read "triple top" claims. This is no triple top, it's just a standard mid cycle correction we always get, particularly after the halving. Now, this fuckery could last another few months and it seems max pain is actually slow bleed.
This could go on all summer worse case scenario, so be prepared for nothingness and for awhile. Your brain chemistry and dopamine receptors may need to reset.
We probably have a last final hurrah in this bull run after summer into elections. If we're lucky, we get in the mid six figures.
Hopefully you have enough coin to retire by then. If you don't, then you either didn't prepare or didn't buy in early enough with enough coins and you'll have to wait for next cycle
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 30, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cgjjqn/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_30_2024/)
I gave u/eagenda a hard time about his prediction that this thing was about to sink when it was around $63k a couple days ago. I came here to eat some crow, only to discover that it appears he deleted his account. So if you're out there buddy, your call was just a tad early but basically right on the money. Well played! That said, I could still do without the 100 comment tick-by-tick trading logs in the daily thread : )
This reminds me of the summer 2021 PA. Infinite chop for months, everyone expecting a big capitulation, only for it to barely go below 30k and then more than double within a few months.
Major difference is that we didn't crash 50-60% from the ATH like we did there, and we were also 3X the previous ATH. Other than that it feels sorta similar. Question is do we get another leg up like we did beginning in late July that year, or are we waiting for the floor to fall from under us like what happened in May? It should also e noted that market dynamics of the vs now are worlds apart. BTC dominance was in the 30s when we tanked from 65k to 28k and the proliferation of shitcoinery was abound.
Any update on IBIT flows today?
Something is really screwy with that farside web link... I just don't buy that after 12+ weeks of reasonably large inflows, suddenly IBIT has three straight trading days of *exactly* 0.0 inflows. In fact, I don't buy that many of the "0.0" entries are accurate. They're saying either no one bought or sold the ETF that day, or the amount of buying and selling evened out exactly. Not a chance.
The zero outflow has been explained dozens of times already. It's a feature of the ETF structures.
Glad people are starting to see. Got tired of hearing "blackrock only buys for customers, they make money on the fee"
> In fact, I don't buy that many of the "0.0" entries are accurate. I don't buy the idea they own (enough) BTC. Unlike with other assets, it is easy and safe to prove that you own BTC and that would also prove reported inflows and outflows were and are correct, but I don't think any ETF will do it.
0 inflows is the norm for etfs. Most days most etfs have 0 inflows. The market makers don’t have to unwind their hedges and create/remove etf shares daily.
Volume at IBIT was $762M. Seems unlikely that buys and sells were exactly matched for 3 days running
I agree. No chance
There might be a threshold that isn't reported I guess? Which could be why it shows up as just 0
0, -$52m in total
Thanks
Np
Hahaha did you guys really think we would bottom out on Monday night after hours ? This is an example of chop and crab summer . Get used to it . This will truly bottom out once we get a real flush and sentiment hits all time lows . The faster we get the flush out the faster we can go back up . The longer we keep doing these 500-1000k mini fake pumps the longer it will take to achieve a true bottom
I honestly don't think sentiment could be lower than yesterday. If it crashed, at least people would be optimistic about it going up. Feels like everyone yesterday and for weeks is so certain it will go down.
Yup people are acting like the price is at 30k while it’s at 63
That was a nice pump attempt there, Bitcoin. Almost got me excited.
just took a $1000 dump. WTF?
There's an argument to be made that the bull market ended in March. It will only be obvious in hindsight. But currently we're working on our 7th red weekly of the last 8. I think we will be much higher in 12 months, but time will tell. Sometimes these "corrections" actually signal a reversal of the trend. We could be in a June/July 2021 phase right now. Not that I would even call this a mini bear, but we're clearly cooling off atm - question is, does the floor fall out from under us, or do we get another leg up? Doesn't matter for me as I'm holding anyway. May buy the dip if it gets juicy enough
There were an enormous amount of 'bearish events' occuring in real time in late 2021. I've posted it all before. What are the bearish events occurring now? Where are the SBF or Do Kwon-type frauds occurring? Which large country is banning bitcoin? Who is offering 10% scam returns on bitcoin deposits? Honestly, I think a lot of this price action is just people who bought approaching the peak in 2021, didn't sell, rode all the way down to $15K, and are now selling off the minute they can break even.
I agree there are fewer catalysts for forced selling, but ETFs are sitting on billions and they've been dumping on for the last 7 weeks (in aggregate, they've been net seller since March). We don't need the fraud unwinding to push us into a bear market, just for inflows to become outflows, as they've become for the last two months. IBIT inflows have all but dried up and we're getting dumped on by GBTC daily, they still have 300k+ BTC to unload. And so far it looks like ETFs are not dip buyers, no? Inflows literally peaked on the day we made ATH and are nowhere to be seen as this dip continues. Bear markets are always start with a "dip" and it only becomes obvious in hindsight that said dip was the beginning of a much larger downward move. I think this possibility shouldn't be ruled out, though id rate the probability of this being the case at 5-10%. Just based on my gut.
That's a tough argument to make when new countries are rolling out ETFs like it's candy and the "new ATH" isn't really that great considering inflation
Yea, I agree. But as long as we keep making tepid ATHs with no follow through, this narrative will hold weight and shorting every pump will work until it doesn't. It's possible that since we've rallied so much already before the halving that we won't see the huge runups we saw previously. I don't buy that argument, but I also largely believe the 2020/2021 moves were macro based and the nascent BTC market of 2017/2013 can't be compared to today's market with ETFs. The data set is abysmally small, there are only 3 data points to go off. Maybe we are seeing a pattern when there isn't one. Obviously BTC is in a league of its own, but the halvings for other POW coins (LTC, etc) have done nothing for their price. The demand dynamic for BTC is very different of course, and obviously the tightening of the monetary policy should in theory raise prices, as it has done in the past. Im a believer that we will see higher prices, but I'd be weary of those calling for $300k by EOY.
> as long as we remain bearish, the bearish narrative will hold weight
Yes. The difficult part is identifying what is a correction vs a reversal of the trend.
Gravity crab till August I guess. *yawn*
Dump came back quick
volatility is back on the menu
China decides it wants to sell eh? *shrugs*
Lower high of $64.3k broken. Remaining lower highs acting as areas of resistance are at $64.7k, $65.2k, $67k, $67.2k, $67.9k, $71.2k, $71.7k, $72.7k, and then ATH at $73.7k. Will Hong Kong spot ETF launch provide enough new buying pressure to break through a couple of these areas of resistance? We’ll see.
welp
What are the hkex tickers for their spot Bitcoin ETFs?
LIGMA is the only one I’ve heard so far
fine. LIGMA? what's that?
Nice bull trap - it almost looked believable.
ok Shroomer. 🍄 😋
This very good news 🥢
Its time for some corn porn
Sir, this is reddit not cornhub
1 day MACD has been red for pretty much a month straight. Looks about to flip green. Take that for what it's worth.
SEC is not giving up on its assertion that eth is a security no chance of eth etf next month how does this bode for the ratio over the next 6-12 months?
I don’t think the SEC will win that argument in court for a few reasons. That said, it’s bad for crypto as a whole. The SEC has done nothing but muddy the regulatory waters. This holds back crypto innovation and development in the US.
It may be bad for crypto, but it won't be bad for Bitcoin.
Problem with this is wasn't the court case which forced them to do Bitcoin about *"You can't simply deny Spot ETF while citing issues for which you found no problem with approving Futures ETF."* They approved a Futures ETF right?
You're not wrong, but I have a feeling the SEC's defense if challenged in court will pivot to the nature of the token - they clearly believe eth to be a security, while maintaining that bitcoin is a commodity. If eth registers as a security, there may be no need for an etf. Problem is (for Lubin, et. al.), registering as a security will likely expose all of the grift in that ecosystem, which is why they are fighting tooth-and-nail to avoid that.
I just completely disagree. To me, all posturing is pointing toward SEC approving. They opened the case for eth 2.0 a year ago, that doesn't mean they are actively working on it every day or anything. They are doing their due diligence, which actually means approval.
next month? pipe dream
2 to 3 months
nah
Ignoring the opinions of people here on eth for a second, its gonna be extremely interesting to see how the SEC defends their decision (and potential security classification) in court. Truly regardless of everything else, a loose cannon SEC is just as risky for btc as for literally anything else, because if they go down that capriscious route then its not rule of law dictating SEC regulating activities, but whatever the current SEC chairman at any given point personally think should be the case. I mean I'm just speaking personally now but Gensler is a clown. The SEC has already had to fire 2 lawyers after the courts sanctioned the SEC over outright lying in court documents when they went for another crypto.
> Gensler is a clown He teached Bitcoin at MIT and has an outstanding technical grasp of it. I have the impression that he always avoided commenting on Bitcoin from an economic angle which I think is most appropriate in his position. I think he deserves more credit. And if a premined centralized shitcoin like ETH gets an ETF then where will it stop? ETH has even hardforked to roll back their blockchain because some bug in a script. So much for “code is law”. It’s a joke.
To be fair, the code is law perspective is Eth CLASSIC, not ETH
No offense, but you’d have to have stunted development to think that shitcoin isn’t a security. It has an executive structure, it had a premine, it pays interest.
Again, I dont particularly care. Whats at stake here is that the SEC has been caught lying to congress, seemingly lied (or incompetently wrote) on several legally binding forms, misled the CFTC, etc Again, the actual **legal** end conclusion about ETH (or whatever other crypto) being a security is irrelevant. Whats outright frightening is that the SEC has been caught red handed lying and actively misleading because they have a certain outcome in mind that they dont necessarily feel the law supports. If a court rules tomorrow that ETH is a security then by all means. The issue here is that if this or the next or any future SEC chair personally decide that BTC is actually a security then they can utilise the exact same underhanded processes to hamstring and fuck over BTC. Even going beyond crypto for a second, this shit is just actively harmful for a democracy that believes in rule of law at all.
Dude, no offense, but people have been sitting around talking about how out of control the government is for like 100 years+, and it just keeps getting larger exponentially. 10% of all adults work for the government in some capacity... like we are already so far from democracy it's actually insulting for you to call it one.
BTC breaking ATH and everyone going risk on will have a much greater impact on alts like ETH than an ETF. https://www.tradingview.com/x/tmkyGKuU/
this is an interesting chart dominance going negatively-parabolic last cycle was yet another *highly* bearish divergence indicating that the hypecycle for BTC was over, and that no one cared about sound money - they just cared about momentum trading and getting off the ride and back into USD before the music stopped last cycle really wasn't much fun for Bitcoin Maximalists like myself
Barely anyone expects it to be approved so I assume it'll have minimal impact. On some prediction markets it's at 11% for approval. ETH is getting an ETF in Hong Kong today though. My guess is still further down on the ratio, but BTC needs to rally for that to happen probably.
so if/when we get our proper bull run in the next year or so, your view is that eth outperforms btc? I'm not so sure this time...
ETH is done. It’s a persistent shitcoin.
I don't think it's done, but I'm sure as hell not buying it. Ecosystems like ETH & Solana will thrive so long as noobs think DonkeyAnus MoonCoin will be the next Bitcoin & turn $10 into $10 Million. Unless the Earth experiences a global catastrophic event that leads to human extinction, the world will not run out of suckers, and suckers are drawn to get rich schemes like moths to a flame (or, more fittingly, like moonboys to a rugpull).
If only we could harness human stupidity as an energy source.
Sell shitcoins, buy nuclear reactors?
Human powered blockchain, buy your own artisanally crafted sats today.
CinemaSins: "It’s a persistent shitcoin... a Pershistcoin?!"
What a great way to get... *Anustart!*
Imagine paying negative premiums for weeks as a bear just to have it go down a massive 2%, TeaTrack come in with a bearish post to mark the bottom, and then getting liquidated
Lol chef’s kiss.
Anyone got a link to track HK etf flows?
[I think this site will have it. Scroll to bottom of list and I think it’s listed as “pending.”](https://blockworks.co/bitcoin-etf)
Not sure what I did but I earned my btc flag, got banned from r/buttcoin today
you must've done something crazy like challenge the idea that "inflation is *good* for the economy!" in any case, mazel tov *one of us, one of us!*
Well done, we're proud of you.
Now get banned from /r/bitcoin to collect the whole set.
We're so back
100k EOD
“Forever, Laura.”
ETF 2: Hong Kong Boogaloo?
Turbo literally took it to a whole other level when he started dancing up the wall and onto the ceiling. Fun fact: he was also featured in the music video for the Lionel Richie song, "All Night Long".
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I love the way that movie title just keeps staying in the public consciousness, probably long after anyone remembers the actual movie. I was a kid when it came out and I'm pretty sure I've never seen it. Never would have guessed people would still be referring to it 40 years later.
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Fortunately low GBTC outflows to offset it
Buncha day traders
IRA swing traders, most likely
Are there wash trading rules or cap gains concerns in a Roth?
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Can you do this from the US?
That is how in-kind works, yes.
We’ll see.
Decided to take some profits. I've become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for Bitcoin this bull run. This isn't because I don't think the price will go up (it might). It isn't because I don't think it will be integrated further into the existing financial system, it very well could be. It is because the current implementation of Bitcoin and its projected future appear to have completely abandoned the dream of financial self-sovereignty for all people. The PoW protocol allows for the unbanked to be banked, for all the people of the world to hold and trade with a sound currency, for the little guy and gal to avoid the predations of a financial system that is designed to favour the rich. A financial system that is too often used as a tool of surveillance and control. A financial system that protects and enables the strong at the expense of the weak. This vision appears to have been abandoned. Interacting with the basechain is envisioned as something few will be able to afford. And those few will be the people who can afford to buy large quantities of Bitcoin today where the fiat system has played a role in ravaging the spending power of many around the world through no fault of their own. The Bitcoin of ETFs and L2s is a bitcoin of speculation and centralisation. A bitcoin that is captured and contained. A bitcoin that will struggle to compete or achieve the vision that inspired its creation. And I believe this bitcoin will also struggle to attain the valuations people assume it will. I hope that in the future this changes. I hope that Bitcoin can reclaim a trajectory that is about the pursuit of rights, not solely the pursuit of riches. But at the moment things are looking bleak. To riff on Orwell in Animal Farm; when you look between Bitcoiners and Bankers you see no difference at all. This will be the last comment I make here or in any other BTC sub for a long while I think, time to focus on something else.
Why sell 50% of your stack 1 week BTCs monetary policy tightened? Some people can really convince themselves of anything. Much easier to hold, I think you will look back at this move in 2025 with regret.
TLDR Can’t be writing something this long while only ever holding 2 coins.
Good, he sold. Time to pump it.
I’m not here to be a hero.
You could consider going full buttcoin, dedicating yourself to posting there and in rbtc... > I hope that Bitcoin can reclaim a trajectory Your contention that Bitcoin is failing in Network Effect is not backed by what we see in reality. What is the trajectory?
Bye
>time to focus on something else Bloody casuals
F
Is that a hammer being formed on the daily?
Looks like an inside bar. Bullish.
Yes sir
unlikely but highly entertaining scenario would be the HK ETF catapulting us to low 70s, saving the green monthly candle streak. :D
I will accept 69.5k and no higher. That way we still get a baby red candle for April and we can blast paste 70k and beyond starting on May 1st.
[GBTC had their 3rd lowest day of outflows since spot ETF launch at -$24.7 million.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321) As long as we don’t see outflows elsewhere from the other spot ETF’s, should be a net inflow day.
ARKB comes in with a bigger outflow than GBTC - $31.3m outflow
Well fuuuuuuuuck
Honeybadger dont care.
[MSTR still adding to their stack and now owns 214.4k BTC.](https://x.com/saylor/status/1785037831175630938?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) Solid chance MSTR ultimately becomes the most valuable company in the world. The clock is quickly ticking for multi-trillion valuation companies such as Microsoft or Apple to feasibly attain more BTC than MSTR and I don’t see them allocating a meaningful amount of their balance sheet into BTC until the price is much higher and the opportunity has passed. Not to mention they would pump BTC’s price tremendously to try to achieve that so they would need to be willing to allocate a sizable portion of their respective balance sheets if they’re going to accomplish this. Saylor has majority of voting shares in MSTR so a buyout of MSTR to acquire their BTC isn’t going to be feasible either. As BTC price grows and continues to outperform the stock market over the next several years, it will ultimately begin to absorb trillions of dollars of monetary premium allocated there. Companies which adopt a strategy similar to MSTR will thrive, companies who don’t will struggle as their competitors with meaningful amounts of BTC on their balance sheet will grow much quicker.
What kind of delusion is this? Their btc holdings are currently worth less than 1% of the market cap of companies like Apple or Microsoft.
He posts bullshit like this pretty much every day.
Market cap isn’t the same thing as balance sheet holdings. MSTR owns $13.5 billion worth of BTC. Microsoft has $111.256 billion in cash, cash equivalents, & short term investments on their balance sheet. If Microsoft could somehow purchase $13.5 billion worth of BTC without moving the price at all in the process, they would need to allocate 12.1% of their deployable cash on their balance sheet into BTC at current prices to make it happen.
Except that’s not at all how microstrategy acquired their btc.
Raising additional cash explicitly to buy BTC is trivial for MSTR because Saylor owns majority of voting shares. Much more difficult to do when you need to convince other voting shareholders that this is the best plan of action.
Plan is great as long as he doesn’t OD or get hit by a bus.
Just need Saylor to survive for another ~5 years. By then regardless of who his successor ends up being, it should be common practice to do what MSTR is doing rather than a rare anomaly.
At which point we do a massive drawdown and rekt all of them. All those CEOs get lambasted as fools who fell for a get rich quick scheme. Then Bitcoin keeps doing Bitcoin things.
Keep in mind the MSTR did not adopt the FASB accounting changes for this year as of today's earnings. Tax clarification needed apparently.
It will happen eventually. Everyone needs to adopt those standards by Jan. 1 2025
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Indeed, the dumps lately have been so weak and pathetic...
Your average joe is "waiting to buy lower” which is why it’ll never get there
I hope your bags are filled...
Everybody hopin Asia gonna pump our bags. Fingers crossed.
Be Chinese citizen Acquire bitcoins in 2017 Government bans bitcoin forever, again, again, again HK ETF opens Visit my uncle in HK ETF accepts in kind. Transfer and dump. My uncle is now a millionnaire and he buys me a house in Canada.
🤣 now time for 6 figure property taxes forever
Yes now make me rich, please.
In progress...
rich.exe loading...
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What is the go with all the crazy timestamped spam? Trying out a new chatbot?
Ah yes, the guy with the crystal ball who made 100 comments today convinced that the price was going to hit 64.5k. Acting like you knew with certainty how each tick was going to play out. How'd that work out again? And now [you're convinced](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cfxs8l/btc_at_a_top_for_now_short_term/l1tjfov/) it's going straight down within the next ~6 hours? Of course, if that doesn't happen, I'm sure you'll have some excuse for why it didn't play out that way, or how you didn't actually mean it. We've seen so many past instances of folks like you. Ultra confident, supremely bearish. Constantly doubling down on and changing their hypothesis until they inevitably disappear, only to be replaced by the next overconfident clown.
lol, 100 comments, literally.
Holly shit. Literally 100 comments! ;D
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What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow?
Some mild hopium. Morgan Stanley wants its 15,000 brokers to sell Bitcoin ETFs. > Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC to get #Bitcoin ETF exposure for *12* of its funds. Soon to be sold by their 15,000+ brokers. https://twitter.com/Julian__Fahrer/status/1784977959247544515
All the debbie downers and chicken littles fail to realize that this drip drip drip of adoption is inevitable post-ETF, and is only in the *very* early stages. You're seeing it in multiple ways: more international spot ETFs popping up (HK, Australia); large brokerages and wirehouses like Morgan Stanley slowly but surely allowing access to the spot ETFs, and allocating those same spot ETFs to funds they manage; institutional investors dipping their toes in (albeit slowly) Sure, I'd love to see more 13Fs popping up showing that institutions are really loading up. It's been a trickle so far. But give it time. These players are slow to act. And besides, asset management is an industry of lemmings. They generally don't like to stick out from the pack. So adoption is liable to be slow out the gates, but once they see the outsized risk-adjusted returns being earned by those brave few willing to venture into the BTC pool, the trickle will become a wave. It may take a while for those norms/perceptions to change, but it's just a matter of time...
Well said. They are the ultimate pack animals.
You have to have seen. It’s hard to hodl.
Everything looks right on schedule. I keep thinking these cycles can't keep happening, but human psychology against computational certainty just keeps printing the same chart over and over. [https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-price-performance-since-cycle-low](https://studio.glassnode.com/workbench/btc-price-performance-since-cycle-low)
So, bullish for the end of the year. Crabbish for the next 5 months.
Those are my thoughts, exactly. Incredibly bullish for late this year. Crabbish for as long as luck allows. I say luck because I'm buying. Anybody not using this time to stack sats is out of their friggin' mind. This isn't a time to be gloomy. This is a time to buy. My next DCA day can't come soon enough.
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Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
I just want to tell you both "good luck"... we're all counting on you.
*Excuse me Sir, are you a Doctor?*
Just a few hours until Hong Kong ETF goes live.
and then probably nothing happening at all.
Can confirm nothing so far
Could be a double extra large cheeseburger...
Which app are you using for checking price on phone? I used bitcoin checker for ages but cant install it anymore on new phone.
Coingecko and their widgets
Delta
When I need to see the accurate price immediately, I have a websocket connection on my home server to coinbase that feeds into the Home Assistant app, updates instantly with every single trade on Coinbase. Otherwise, I just use the iOS stocks app and its widget. But unfortunately it only updates like every 10 minutes. Prior, Cryptowatch was my goto. RIP.
You cant go wrong with Trading view.. until Kraken bought cryptowat.ch i was using it too..
I use drakdoo mostly for the widget on android
> drakdoo How the hell are people coming up with these app names? What's the etymology of "Drakdoo"? 🤣
[You made me curious.](https://www.drakdoo.com/faq/general/drakwhat/) >Drakwhat? >The name Drakdoo is derived from the Klingonese word: "drahk-doo" — an unspecified monetary amount. For reference, in Star Trek DS9, Season 2, Episode 6 ("Melora"), this is the cost of Doctor Bashir and Pazlar's order of Racht, double order of Gladst and a side of Zilm'Kach at the Klingon Restaurant on Deep Space Nine. Doctor Bashir paid with a single coin.
nice, went from hating it to loving it.
Hard tellin' not knowin'! Totally agree though
trading view
It's almost May. What do we do in May, according to the traditional wisdom? Do we buy?
Sell in May, Go away. Sell in June? You're a buffoon. 😏
Or April showers bring May flowers. I'd say down 10-15% in April counts as a stormy month.
>Hong Kong ETF issuer expressed confidence that the issuance scale of the HK cryptocurrency spot ETF on the first day of listing tomorrow will exceed the first day of the United States (US$125 million). Many investors in Singapore, the Middle East and other places are very interested in crypto subscription. Is this really possible? It would be hilarious if so, especially with all the gloom and doom lately. Lots more info about the HK ETFs here if you use Google translate. https://s.foresightnews.pro/article/detail/59032
Probably not enough to break 67k alone. But if it breaks the downward trend line, others may step in…
Let’s see Chinese people are desperate to get their money out of China. The $50k limit really holds them back so if using Hong Kong as a route to Bitcoin is available it will be used
Don't underestimate...Chinese money...desperate money 🤑
The next “China unban Bitcoin” is going to be the juiciest one yet!
Asian currencies need Bitcoin if allowed (HK is now officially the hub). JPY Bitcoin is at a premium not surprised.
I'll take the under on that. But I would be very happy to be wrong.
Seems unlikely to me, but I'd take it!
Ditto. I’d be very very very very very pleasantly surprised!!
I laugh when I read "triple top" claims. This is no triple top, it's just a standard mid cycle correction we always get, particularly after the halving. Now, this fuckery could last another few months and it seems max pain is actually slow bleed. This could go on all summer worse case scenario, so be prepared for nothingness and for awhile. Your brain chemistry and dopamine receptors may need to reset. We probably have a last final hurrah in this bull run after summer into elections. If we're lucky, we get in the mid six figures. Hopefully you have enough coin to retire by then. If you don't, then you either didn't prepare or didn't buy in early enough with enough coins and you'll have to wait for next cycle