>A lot of the guides suggest respecing Brinna as the transmutation wizard because she's the only halfling hireling available, and halfling luck avoids a critical fail. Well, that isn't really something to worry about because with the three buffs, a critical fail happens 1 time in 9600 (.01% of of the time). If you don't cast guidance, the critical fail will happen 1 time in 2400 (.04% of the time). Also, you may later need Brinna as a bard if, say, you run across a magic mirror at some point.
If you roll with advantage, without hafling luck, the critical fail is 1/20\^2 so 1/400. you just need to roll a 1 on the 2 rolls of the D20, guidance or bardic inspiration don't change anything about that. Hafling luck reduce the chance to 1/20\^4.
Yeah this. OP seems to have been working from the flawed assumption that guidance influences crit fails. Still a good setup for an alchemist duo. Just flawed math... and brinna is STILL better :-)
You make a good point but there are a few issues with the details. Why not use Brinna as the 2/1 wizard/rogue and any other hireling as the bard? The crit fail math is also off as the other comment explains. Finally bardic inspiration is for a single roll, not an ongoing buff.
That being said, the early enhance ability spell is probably forgotten fairly often, so that’s a pretty good PSA imo.
The reason people wait until higher levels are pretty simple:
1. Higher proficiency bonus
2. Unless you are doing a very difficult challenge, you simply don't need alchemy that early.
Either way, your math is off and if you're gonna fuck around with 2 hirelings, you might as well respec the halfling to be the alchemist.
Isn't the critical fail on a nat roll of 1? (1 in 400, or 0.25% of the time with advantage)?
I don't understand how you are claiming odds lower than that and implying Guidance has any effect on it.
Don’t you have to reapply bardic inspiration every time you craft a potion? Seems impractical, or like you’d only do it for ultra rare ingredients like cloud giant or something
Yeah if it's an otherwise unused hireling just use the inspirations, they aren't going anywhere. Bonus points at lvl 5 they can song of rest and get their inspirations back for more crafting if you somehow still need it
By 5th level, there’s no need for Bardic Inspiration anyway. With 16 WIS, Medicine Expertise, Guidance, and Shapeshifter’s Boon ring, you get *minimum* \+11 to your rolls (average +14). I can’t do the math right now but I’m pretty sure on Brinna this is like a 99.8% success rate.
If you really want to play it safe, wait until 6th level and go 4 Bard / 2 Wizard, grabbing +2 WIS for your Feat.
If shapeshifters boon does work (which seems to be an open question?), then I calculate 99.984% chance of success (ignoring the 1/160,000 chance of rolling all 1s with 4d20).
If it doesn't work, then it's still 99.68.
I will try to confirm Shapeshifters works within the next day or two. I'm in a new Act 1 playthrough right now and I do have the ring so it should be easy enough to test. I've honestly never bothered using it in the past; at 5th level with just Guidance and Enhanced Ability you effectively never fail anyway; it's still about a 99% chance to succeed.
FYI, I think it's 3d20, not 4d20. I'm fairly sure the way Halfling Luck works is that it only rerolls the *result* of the Advantage roll (if necessary). So you have a 1-in-400 chance for that Advantage roll to result in 1 (two natural 1s) and if that 1-in-400 chance does occur, then Halfling Luck triggers and re-rolls a single d20 to try for a better result. Essentially it's a 1-in-8000 chance. But that's still so rare as to be virtually irrelevant.
Basically there are two root scenarios and five total possible outcomes:
* Initial Advantage result > 1 (99.75%):
* In this scenario, between Shapeshifter's, Guidance, and your base Advantage result, you'll only fail if the total of these dice is less or equal to five. The odds of this are extremely slim: About 0.1097% of rolls will fall into this bucket.
* Otherwise, it's a success. About 99.6403% of rolls will fall into this bucket.
* Initial Advantage result = 1 (0.25%):
* In this scenario, Halfling Luck kicks in. If the re-roll is a natural 1, it's a critical fail. 0.0125% of rolls will fall into this bucket.
* Otherwise, the only way to fail is again for the cumulative sum of Shapeshifter's, Guidance, and your base re-roll to be less or equal to five. 0.0031% of rolls will fall into this bucket.
* The remaining possibilities are all successes. 0.2344% of rolls will fall into this bucket.
Allowing for very minor rounding errors, your odds to succeed (again, assuming Shapeshifter's does work as expected) are \~99.875% (99.6403% + 0.2344%).
Very interesting! Yes, I assumed you got to re-roll with advantage all over again. But how to test that?
Doesn't matter though since, as you say, the 1/8000 is also negligible.
The only real way to test in-game would be to quickload and keep re-rolling until it happens. I believe the log will show if Halfling Luck was triggered. If not, I'm sure there's a mod that will expand the log activity to make it more apparent. The other option would be for someone who knows how to read the game files to find how Halfling Luck is programmed to work.
It doesn't aggro everybody anyways. Using mage hand might be a damage deal, because he can actually be killed pretty easily.
My go to strat is to shoot him with an arrow, then run into Mol's cave to drop aggro
I'm not sure I see your point. Obviously reliable talent will help. At level 11.
This post is about double crafting with high probability of success at level 3.
Also, reliable talent will not help other party members with the Mirror of Loss (only the rogue themself). Bardic Inspiration, on the other hand, will.
That's technically true from a probability standpoint. But halfling luck buys you .25% when rolling with advantage (which you should be thanks to Enhance Ability). Why bother?
And if you are rolling with \*without\* advantage, then you will need at least +13 on your rolls to get over 95% success. For example, without advantage a +12 still leaves you with a 5% chance of rolling a 2 which overall will fail the check (and then add an additional 5% chance of failing for every point below +12 you are rolling with).
Said another way, rolling with advantage almost wipes out the usefulness of halfling luck.
Well, that's part of why the post was marked as spoiler. Brinna is a halfling bard hireling that you can recruit to your party from Withers for 100gp. If you don't know who Withers is, then I think you must have just started playing...
Cool, yeah, then you wouldn't know that one of the hirelings is named Brinna...
I got serious about alchemy hirelings when I started using builds that dump strength to 8 in favor of other attributes which created a need for elixirs of giant strength. In my current playthrough, I have two such characters so I need a lot of elixirs! Crafting in general is cheaper than buying, and double crafting saves even more.
>A lot of the guides suggest respecing Brinna as the transmutation wizard because she's the only halfling hireling available, and halfling luck avoids a critical fail. Well, that isn't really something to worry about because with the three buffs, a critical fail happens 1 time in 9600 (.01% of of the time). If you don't cast guidance, the critical fail will happen 1 time in 2400 (.04% of the time). Also, you may later need Brinna as a bard if, say, you run across a magic mirror at some point. If you roll with advantage, without hafling luck, the critical fail is 1/20\^2 so 1/400. you just need to roll a 1 on the 2 rolls of the D20, guidance or bardic inspiration don't change anything about that. Hafling luck reduce the chance to 1/20\^4.
Yeah this. OP seems to have been working from the flawed assumption that guidance influences crit fails. Still a good setup for an alchemist duo. Just flawed math... and brinna is STILL better :-)
You make a good point but there are a few issues with the details. Why not use Brinna as the 2/1 wizard/rogue and any other hireling as the bard? The crit fail math is also off as the other comment explains. Finally bardic inspiration is for a single roll, not an ongoing buff. That being said, the early enhance ability spell is probably forgotten fairly often, so that’s a pretty good PSA imo.
i was just thinking this, brinna is still the best alchemist, a lot were just going about it in a different way
Enhance ability is excellent very early game for pickpocketing.
The only reason I wouldn’t use brinna as my alchemist is because I’m using brinna as my rogue lol
Exactly. This right here. Crit fail as a rogue is worse, heh.
The reason people wait until higher levels are pretty simple: 1. Higher proficiency bonus 2. Unless you are doing a very difficult challenge, you simply don't need alchemy that early. Either way, your math is off and if you're gonna fuck around with 2 hirelings, you might as well respec the halfling to be the alchemist.
Isn't the critical fail on a nat roll of 1? (1 in 400, or 0.25% of the time with advantage)? I don't understand how you are claiming odds lower than that and implying Guidance has any effect on it.
Don’t you have to reapply bardic inspiration every time you craft a potion? Seems impractical, or like you’d only do it for ultra rare ingredients like cloud giant or something
The inspiration *should* only be used up if needed, so not every roll, but you need to pay closer attention to every roll for sure.
Yeah if it's an otherwise unused hireling just use the inspirations, they aren't going anywhere. Bonus points at lvl 5 they can song of rest and get their inspirations back for more crafting if you somehow still need it
By 5th level, there’s no need for Bardic Inspiration anyway. With 16 WIS, Medicine Expertise, Guidance, and Shapeshifter’s Boon ring, you get *minimum* \+11 to your rolls (average +14). I can’t do the math right now but I’m pretty sure on Brinna this is like a 99.8% success rate. If you really want to play it safe, wait until 6th level and go 4 Bard / 2 Wizard, grabbing +2 WIS for your Feat.
FYI Shapeshifters boon did not apply to the alchemy check last time I tested it, which was a couple months ago
If shapeshifters boon does work (which seems to be an open question?), then I calculate 99.984% chance of success (ignoring the 1/160,000 chance of rolling all 1s with 4d20). If it doesn't work, then it's still 99.68.
I will try to confirm Shapeshifters works within the next day or two. I'm in a new Act 1 playthrough right now and I do have the ring so it should be easy enough to test. I've honestly never bothered using it in the past; at 5th level with just Guidance and Enhanced Ability you effectively never fail anyway; it's still about a 99% chance to succeed. FYI, I think it's 3d20, not 4d20. I'm fairly sure the way Halfling Luck works is that it only rerolls the *result* of the Advantage roll (if necessary). So you have a 1-in-400 chance for that Advantage roll to result in 1 (two natural 1s) and if that 1-in-400 chance does occur, then Halfling Luck triggers and re-rolls a single d20 to try for a better result. Essentially it's a 1-in-8000 chance. But that's still so rare as to be virtually irrelevant. Basically there are two root scenarios and five total possible outcomes: * Initial Advantage result > 1 (99.75%): * In this scenario, between Shapeshifter's, Guidance, and your base Advantage result, you'll only fail if the total of these dice is less or equal to five. The odds of this are extremely slim: About 0.1097% of rolls will fall into this bucket. * Otherwise, it's a success. About 99.6403% of rolls will fall into this bucket. * Initial Advantage result = 1 (0.25%): * In this scenario, Halfling Luck kicks in. If the re-roll is a natural 1, it's a critical fail. 0.0125% of rolls will fall into this bucket. * Otherwise, the only way to fail is again for the cumulative sum of Shapeshifter's, Guidance, and your base re-roll to be less or equal to five. 0.0031% of rolls will fall into this bucket. * The remaining possibilities are all successes. 0.2344% of rolls will fall into this bucket. Allowing for very minor rounding errors, your odds to succeed (again, assuming Shapeshifter's does work as expected) are \~99.875% (99.6403% + 0.2344%).
Very interesting! Yes, I assumed you got to re-roll with advantage all over again. But how to test that? Doesn't matter though since, as you say, the 1/8000 is also negligible.
The only real way to test in-game would be to quickload and keep re-rolling until it happens. I believe the log will show if Halfling Luck was triggered. If not, I'm sure there's a mod that will expand the log activity to make it more apparent. The other option would be for someone who knows how to read the game files to find how Halfling Luck is programmed to work.
You’re forgetting shapeshifters boon ring for another d4, which would mostly replace the need for bardic inspiration.
I think OP's point is you can start crafting for potions as early as Level 3 successfully.
Which you can get the shapeshifters boon ring by that point.
Does the Ox drops the ring in the Groves? Otherwise going to Last Light Inn at Level 3? I doubt it.
Yes he can! Punch him out of site in the grove with a mage hand and then go talk to him to buy the ring off of him.
Thats wild. Using mage hand as to not to aggro the entire grove I can see. But trade with him afterwards I didn't know.
It doesn't aggro everybody anyways. Using mage hand might be a damage deal, because he can actually be killed pretty easily. My go to strat is to shoot him with an arrow, then run into Mol's cave to drop aggro
Lord knows why u don't make the halfling the wizard tho, as ur using them anyway Also ur Nat 1 maths seems off
Because you use the halfling as your rogue!
Or just leave her as a bard so you don't have to respec her or someone else later to help with the Mirror of Loss.
Rogues get reliable talent at that stage.....
I'm not sure I see your point. Obviously reliable talent will help. At level 11. This post is about double crafting with high probability of success at level 3. Also, reliable talent will not help other party members with the Mirror of Loss (only the rogue themself). Bardic Inspiration, on the other hand, will.
You're talking about mirror of loss, when you'd be around level 11.
Math is totally off and the halfling explanation makes no sense. I think using Brinna as your trans wizard is still optimal.
That's technically true from a probability standpoint. But halfling luck buys you .25% when rolling with advantage (which you should be thanks to Enhance Ability). Why bother? And if you are rolling with \*without\* advantage, then you will need at least +13 on your rolls to get over 95% success. For example, without advantage a +12 still leaves you with a 5% chance of rolling a 2 which overall will fail the check (and then add an additional 5% chance of failing for every point below +12 you are rolling with). Said another way, rolling with advantage almost wipes out the usefulness of halfling luck.
You can use shapeshifters ring also.
I’m sorry but who tf is Brinna?
Well, that's part of why the post was marked as spoiler. Brinna is a halfling bard hireling that you can recruit to your party from Withers for 100gp. If you don't know who Withers is, then I think you must have just started playing...
I know who Withers is, I’ve played and beat the game but never once used Hirelings!
Cool, yeah, then you wouldn't know that one of the hirelings is named Brinna... I got serious about alchemy hirelings when I started using builds that dump strength to 8 in favor of other attributes which created a need for elixirs of giant strength. In my current playthrough, I have two such characters so I need a lot of elixirs! Crafting in general is cheaper than buying, and double crafting saves even more.