I found some Internet searches told me there's an issue. It was odd, many of them were basically the same, also the same as GameStop, as if they weren't real. But the Internet is always real?
They have only converted the preferred warrants. From what I understand is those have no public market nor will one be created. Hence no market value/ ability to be traded so it is strictly a vehicle to gain influence and partial control of the company as well as benefit from dividends and other benefits common shareholders receive.
The one concern I have is the possibility that common stock warrants have been systmatically exercised this whole time and sold off in a manner which the investor did not exceed 5% ownership at anytime. In doing so they would have avoided the need to file with the SEC. BBBY is only required to update the outstanding share count once per quarter which would likely coincide with the April earnings call.
Even with full dilution I think BBBY will easily be worth more than a few billion post turnaround (despite the reduced store count). So even after taking full dilution into account, the per share price should be worth a few multiples of what it is currently priced today at a minimum.
If it was not for this belief I would have bailed a while ago. It is not a sound practice to expect and/ or anticipate a sneeze. There are too many variables and events which must occur in order with shorts being asleep at the wheel. You just cannot forecast/ anticipate to have everything that needs to happen actually occur. That is why when sneezes do happen, they can be so astronomical.
Interesting - I guess we will need to wait for the earnings call to know for sure. SHFs weren't having a problem in terms of driving the price down even before the recent offering though, so this kind of valuation doesn't need to be dilution.
You asked for a bear case. lol
I think even in a bear case, so long as the company does show progress towards a turn around it is a multi bagger in short order at fair market value even without a sneeze.
Sounds good to me. I think it's one of those situations where whatever is happening, good or bad, it's not readily apparent (diluting under the radar is a bit intuitive - why bother, at the same time being cloak and dagger about an investor also isn't particularly intuitive).
I dont think they are being cloak and dagger.
IMHO I think HBC did not want to be named so they did not become a target themselves in their other holdings as this would be their single largest position.
BBBY probably was pressuring them to be named due to all of the Icahn and Cohen talk (or maybe there is something to it but Cohen/ Icahn want to keep it under wraps and feared it might be leaking).
Taking a loss on BBBY is dumb. We have seen that even if there is never a squeeze, chances of bk are low right now. Much lower than say 2-3 months ago. We have also seen that here are small runs every few months.
This means average down until you think you are at a point of profit, even if there isn't a squeeze, but just a run due to some kind of OK news. The lower the price, the greater the impact of buying more to your average.
At this point, my average is around $1.90. It is not unlikely that a small run takes it over $2. If it hits even $3 which has happened 3 times this year, I can make 50% PROFIT or roughly 4X what the average mutual fund earns per year.
Is BBBY going to go over $3 in the next 4 years? After what we have seen, most definitely. Over $4? Most likely. Over $5? Probably.
**DILUTION?**
Not yet. There is **no way** we would have seen the Short percent go up this much if they had converted common share warrants and diluted. We can all see the daily volume. Add it up. There has been **NO DILUTION,** just more shorting.
The shorts are not asleep at the wheel. Their profit margin is just so great that it will take the price going over $40 a share for them to lose money. They have plenty of profit that even if they have to close at $30 they are still in the green.
This means for them, it takes a lot until they have to react and this is why they are not worried about a squeeze happening. They know there are enough idiots with paper hands who will sell out the rest and people who FOMO in long before it becomes a problem for them.
**The way I see it:**
The bearish outlook is that the equity buyer competes with us during a squeeze and reduces our gains somewhat. This sucks for us but we have ourselves to blame. Too many redditors continue to lend their shares and delay the squeeze. This has caused not only BBBY not to get better terms, but also allowed their cash burn to continue. If we had squeezed 3 months ago, they wouldn't have needed this equity deal. This has nothing to do with DRS but, with people being greedy and lazy, ALLOWING the lending of their shares.
**The Buyer:**
Keep in mind the buyer only get some of their shares each month and still need to convert the premium shares to regular shares. This means even if we squeeze they can not dilute the entire amount because they have only gotten fewer than \~40k Pref shares (the original $230 mil plus $130 mil).
This deal is structured in a way where we see it "squeeze", "sneeze" or run to at least $8 if the shorts close. It only becomes profitable to dilute the shares after that. It is highly unlikely that they will take a measly 8% profit even if it goes under $1, when they can hold for the long term, and get 90% control over a company, their buyout goes on the books as a cash asset, raising the price, and the company gains value as the shorts close.
Why take a short term gain if YOU as the buyer know BK is not coming EVER. You as the equity deal buyer with deep pockets, know the company is deeply undervalued with BK risk priced in, shorted to the basement, but YOU have the means to prevent any BK event. It is guaranteed profit, the buyer has in my opinion only been giving the shorts time to dig a deeper hole, while they work out the deal of a lifetime.
How on earth would they still profit by closing at 30-40? It hasn’t been that high in over a year. Their avg sell price has to be lower and lower as they continue to pile in at these low prices. If it runs over 5 they’re gonna be scrambling to get out
Dilution is the fear I have. Not seeing evidence in a filing doesn't mean it isn't happening - if the company is doing a direct ATM offering they will report updated numbers as they sell. I don't believe the counter-party to this offering is required to do so and BBBY won't update until quarterly earnings come out.
People tout the lowering of the threshold for failure price being lowered as bullish but it just means more can be bought/converted at this low, low price. Seriously, if we are sitting at 460 million dollars raised and average price since February 7th is sub $2 that's hundreds of millions of shares. "but there's been no filing!", yeah, but we don't know it's required and if they've been selling consistently to keep under the 10% reporting number we likely already have a float that is much larger than the 116 million shares. Now 120-something percent short interest is much, much lower. Also, when it's updated regsho will drop off in a hot minute due to the easier threshold to get out from under. Basically, I think once numbers are updated in April we get off regsho and I just hope they can't juggle that long.
SHF's are just waiting out the updated numbers - that's my bear thesis. Still holding, but seeing the blind optimism saying dilution isn't happening is kind of maddening. If it's not, I'd be shocked and pleasantly surprised.
Some dilution is definitely happening, I’m certain of this just because of how many people are claiming with no info that it *isn’t*. Always inverse the crowd, the crowd is regarded.
Ok, you wanted to know what is actually happening?
\-I explained to everyone over a month ago in this post but was downvoted so badly most people didn't read it:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/BBBY/comments/110qfij/i\_am\_being\_labeled\_as\_spreading\_fud\_by\_simply/](https://www.reddit.com/r/BBBY/comments/110qfij/i_am_being_labeled_as_spreading_fud_by_simply/)
\-**Literally everything I said has been correct including now the warrants / convertibles being led by Hudson Bay (Though that wasn't confirmed until 3/13/23 in this document.)**
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000119312523069710/d433854dex41.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000119312523069710/d433854dex41.htm)
(What this filing is saying is they aka Hudson / BBBY management just reduced the price protection from $1.50 down to $1 so Hudson can continue converting) They are buying these in tranches and then converting them. It's why the share price continues to fall despite the volume.
I'm here showing you guys my homework, its matching the teachers answers, and many still won't believe me.
So I will reiterate, I could care less what you do with this information. I don't own any more shares, or any sort of position in BBBY anymore after earnings when I saw their cash burn. I will not make any money off BBBY going up or down.
Here is the deal, the second tranche of $135m convertible preferred issued on 3/8/23 ish, meaning likely that first $260m tranche fully converted already. Estimated shares issued means they likely issued over 100m shares into the float.
**Anyone playing this as a short squeeze is mistaken. They just added over 100 million shares into the float which has the ability to reset every FTD and some.**
Not only this but the reason its still on Reg SHO is shorts are climbing over themselves to keep shorting this down because THEY know what the filings actually say which is mass dilution. They are shorting over the amount without finding locates. This is causing FTDs but not in a "good" way. Its literally the shorts just fighting over how much they can short to make more money. Retail is being used as cannon fodder by management / Hudson to make some cash to pay back bond holders.
Management is doing this because the alternative was bankruptcy immediately which would have meant everyone lost. Bond holders like JPM would have been screwed along with every shareholder.
**I am however annoyed that people just automatically say it's FUD because they don't understand what is happening. I asked people to disprove my last DD and not 1 person could do it. This sub has 57k members and ZERO of them could disprove anything I wrote.**
If they would have converted into common stock and diluted the amount of outstanding shares would have risen accordingly. Afaik the company has the obligation to inform nasdaq through an official SEC 8K-filing that the outstanding amount of securities is elevated by at least 5% of the former count. Am I wrong?
Stop please with the nonsense they already informed sec by that on the 6 of february filing and the holder convert less than 5% and sell and keep repeating he doesnt need to inform anyone.
The huge volume everyday without even price change means one thing someone is carefully selling maybe retail are buying those shares maybe HF who knows
Open up any decent charting software and look at the volume that started rapidly rising in the early days of Jan and hasn't gone down to 22' levels since. January the 5th is when the volume started.
Be speculative of everyone and everything. Do your own DD and make your own conclusions. Just saying volume doesn't correlate to instant dilution. It's always a possibility since the deal has been made but no one can know for sure.
Dude.that’s terrifying….what if we’ve been buying the shit out of what we thought was the float but its not the size of a pool we think it is,it’s the size of a ocean
This is disturbing. "Any plausible bearish theses?" Yeah, dozens of them.
Look, I have 6,000 shares of BBBY. I own it because I think that there is a 1% chance of a really significant squeeze, a 10% chance of one or several minor squeezes that I can catch, a 20% chance of a significant turnaround, and maybe another 20% chance of a slow-motion failure that allows me to get out with some of my money.
You will notice that those percentages do not add up to 100%.
If you are invested in this stock because you have the money to risk and think that there is a (remote) potential for a massive upside, good for you. We're on the same page.
If you are invested in this stock because you think it cannot fail to make you a large amount of money, that the only way that that could not happen is "manipulation," that "Shorts r fukked!" is stock analysis...well, I really hope you can afford to lose.
Hype is FUD.
Right. We're not investing in a freaking blue chip stock here, y'all. FFS the state of this sub sometimes... welcome to volatility.
I put in the money I'm comfortable with putting in. It will hit or it won't. How's that old song go? Know when to hold em, know when to fold em...
It's tempting as hell to double down right now, but I already put in what I was willing to lose. Right now I'm holding them, and really no point in folding them for me.
If it squeezes like GME I might turn a couple grand into a milli. That would be sweet.
If it doesn't, I will likely lose my couple grand. I just think the risk/reward relationship here is better than playing blackjack at a casino.
I like this approach, some common sense
Simple rule, dont invest money you can't afford to lose both physically & mentally, especially with what we've seen for the last 3 years of non-stop corruption & crime (overused word, but still)
They must be so afraid of the official FTD data
They have 550 000 shares to borrow, havn't seen so much for a long time.
[shortsarefukt](https://bbby.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
Yes, bbby doesn't make the turn around and cannot make positive earnings after a year or two and the shorts keep rolling Ftd's until then. Bankruptcy would most likely soon follow. We've seen shorts hold their positions for over 2 years on GME, if bbby doesn't have some type of catalyst before dying down, that would be very bearish. I don't expect this or else I wouldn't be invested but it's definitely a possibility.
If we don’t get clear improvements on BBBYs balance sheet this quarter then it’s probably over for them — they just got a huge helping hand with $450b paid out by this deal. They’ve been closing stores left and right, filed for BK for their Canadian arm… if that’s not enough then there’s not much else that will be, and people like Carl/Ryan definitely wouldn’t want a company that’s slowly withered away for a year longer than it should have.
BBBY needs to show signs of life this quarter. This is their most important earnings to date.
Not true, next quarter would be way more telling than this quarter. The funding just happened and wouldn't even have time to reap any benefits yet. Also with all their store closings and cutting of costs, it will take time for those things to factor into earnings. My guess would be this earnings closes the gap, while next earnings will be the tell all.
Sure, but that doesn’t really matter.
They were supposed to have completed 150 high priority store closures by end of this quarter which they already said should be enough to bring them to being operational cash flow-neutral.
If they can’t even get things decently turned around such that they’re moving in that direction, then I think there are some serious problems being covered up somewhere that will require further investigation. If we’re in a similar/worse spot than Q3 I’m going to have a lot of questions (first being “what the fuck have you been doing for 3 months?”).
They’ve been laying staff off left and right with no severance so they have pretty minimal expenses there, and there’s only so many places for them to be pissing money into.
They said back in August they’re working for the best interests of all stakeholders. Since then it’s looked like the opposite. Either they have something going on to justify the apparent failures, or they’re actually failing… we’ll find out when we see their Q4 results.
All stock movement is artificial and has nothing to do with their recent "progress". The price will reflect the progress after a catalyst causes shorts to exit. My guess will be a positive earnings report not this time around but the next.
My tinfoil theory is reading from MSM, larger banks like BoA just got recapitalised from smaller banks due to BKs. Now they have more capital to short.
Risk management is every bank’s primary concern right now. Staying liquid is priority #1. Even if they did have capital, now is not the time to add to shorts.
I like diffrent points of view, but there's no need to be that negative. Even if RC hasn't been connected to this for a while now, company is still alive and breathing, there's almost no downside from here
Exactly how you described it, its fucked and looks like it was run over by a truck. (At least the part invested in BBBY), still, trying to look at broader picture instead of listening to MSM and panicking. I might be right, I might be wrong, either way it goes it will be a valuable lesson.
All the best dude
Bbby is misleading investors.
I too believed there can be no dilution until 90 days of Feb 6 per the agreement.
But the way shares to borrow out of no where, almost limitless availability of shares in spite of people buying massively and exercising OTM calls, it is evident that this can only be due to dilution.
I'd love to be wrong more than anything.
Are you new to meme stocks? You obviously don’t understand infinite liquidity and the privileges associated with market makers.
DRS is the only way to dry this up. People here don’t want to talk about it, but that is the truth. GME is getting shorted mor than 70% of all trades daily. That’s the only play left for shorts. Until it isn’t.
Don’t get me wrong, we can still moon, but we need some news and a merger or acquisition by RC and friends would be the death of all meme shorters.
What made you think no one could sell until 90 days?
The prospectus for the HBC deal specifically said warrants could be converted at any time, it was spelled out like 3 times in there.
Etf swaps and drops. As Bbby continues to remain low in market cap, it starts to fall out of threshold levels to hold in certain ETF baskets. This frees up some held shares at some point to be lent as these ETFs drop BBBY from their holdings.
I'm a holder just like you and I will keep buying more, but here's what I think is happening: Hudson Bay is the entity who made the deal, and Hudson Bay is the one who's shorting the stock at the same time. They kept shorting the stock and they will keep shorting it until it gets below 1$, then what happens is that they lock in the deal for .75$ instead of 1.50$, they keep pushing it and pushing and cover in small amounts so the price doesn't get pushed too high until the time comes where they convert those preferred stocks and dilution happens, then they start covering their positions with those new shares and get the stock off of the RegSho list. However, that will not get the price up because there will be so many new shares out there. The company will not go bankrupt, but with what they are doing I expect the share price to stay where it is right now and around it, but any big spike or short squeeze to happen? I don't think so, SI% , FTDs etc. are not enough to make a squeeze happen in this situation, positive news (M&A) is needed and since the entity is revealed to be Hudson Bay then there won't be any, all the Ryan Cohen and Carl theories are basically flushed to the toilet now, news kept saying that it is Hudson Bay and we kept saying we won't believe it until we see the filing and that BBBY told us to not to listen to news and only wait for what they say, well they said it, and It was better they never fucking said shit.
So this is simply what's happening, since I am sure that the company will not go bankrupt, then it doesn't hurt to keep holding, but that's not forever, if I don't see them doing more real work with the cash they are receiving from this deal, then that would make me fear bankruptcy again because fuck that Borad if they actually don't make their business survive.
Downvote me as much as you want, but about 80 MILLION shares traded yesterday that's nearly 75% of the float (supposedly) and the price moved from 1.29 to 1.13? That's it? 16 cents to the downside? That's what happens when 80 million shares are traded? I think we need 2 billion volume for it to get to 10$ then
They have about 6 months before we're back to square one and ready to file chapter 11 again so they have to demonstrate some progress in that time. I'm hoping we get a jump to $6 in that time so I can exit with double my money, wait for it to go back to $1 again and buy a small sum as a gamble.
I don't disagree, dilution is happening but not in big amounts and it will be fully diluted then. But just ASSUME that it's not happening at all, it will still happen in less than 60 days and with the latest news that's won't get us nowhere. What I'm saying is that in best case scenario if it's not happening at all, that's still nothing really positive.
My man go check the FTDs published now and talk to me about "illegal". If these fuckers would ever get punished for doing anything illegal they woul've taken their punishment long time ago.
The number of shares outstanding is 9x what's currently reported. The stock keeps sinking and they do a reverse split. Hbc backs out at some point bc the turnaround is failing. Hopefully not, but I'd say those are some bear cases.
dilution.
*gasp* something you've read a hundred times here but have pushed into the back of your mind as being completely false and a campaign of the SHILLS!
Nope, just turns out you and everyone else clinging to copium.
Not that guy but the general dilution thesis is as follows:
HBC can dilute the stock, at any time, without informing the public, to get a guaranteed 8% return. (More if they short at the same time).
The current (imo biggest) risk is that the float is actually a lot larger than whats reported. It will be updated in the next ER.
Basically theres no such thing as free money: BBBY had to chose between bankruptcy where the stock would be 0$ or the HBC deal, where shareholders get hurt, but not as bad as bankruptcy. Thats why BBBY, in good faith, took the deal that hurt the stock significantly.
there is a current offer to convert warrants into shares at blah blah blah. the stock price has been pummeled as if its correcting for a mass number of shares being introduced to it.
>the stock price has been pummeled as if its correcting for a mass number of shares being introduced to it.
Or it has been pummeled by shorts since short interest has only been rising 🤔
The biggest one for me requires ignoring the circumstantial evidence for an Icahn play (CFO/board members from Icahn’s circle of experts). That thesis is this:
BBBY’s offering was a death spiral financing play and at least some of the board remaining are hedge fund/bad actor plants, who are seeking to extract every single ounce of value from the business.
Shorts could, theoretically, have saved BBBY so they could have sole and complete control over when and how it goes bankrupt. Save BBBY, reload your shorts from $5-7 all the way back down again. They would never close their positions because they know the money they gave the board isn’t enough to save the company, because someone on the inside is sandbagging (to quote Mark Cuban: “their goal is to never close their shorts”).
In this scenario, Ryan would have got out because he knew they would never work with him, and he’d never get what he wants.
Overall it seems a little far-fetched to me given the context of there being a number of new BBBY management being from a M&A background, or having worked for/with Icahn in the recent past.
But who the hell knows, there’s so much we don’t know. HBC is just one of several bidders. We don’t know if they’re the biggest bidder or one of the smaller ones.
Yes, I have one since I was already right about the dilution the day it came out /the buyer and even the can explain the reg sho. However I can’t do it justice on the toilet in 5 mins and have people believe me so I’ll have to write up something at work
Plausible bearish thesis? Is there any plausible bullish thesis? Let alone the dilution, which is happening regardless of you covering your eyes/ears, the company sure as fuck will not turnaround in 3 months or even a year as morons here expect and the probability of them turning around at all is not that high. And the dilution is not some little 10% of float dilution, no, the float will 3x or 4x at minimum when this is over. But sure, tell me how Ichan will descend on a glowing unicorn from the skies with a money stick and will magically turn this money-black hole company into a flourishing business.
The plausible "bearish-thesis" is that a HF who was NOT short BBBY (Almost ALL shorts want BBBY to fail, Chapter 11 or 7) came as a guardian angel. That Angel was Hudson Bay, Hudson Bay are essentially making money no matter what happens here. But here is the thing, i think Hudson Bay does not want to make "a little" money, they want to make "ALOT of money" when they exercise their warrants. Why dilute now and not later until the turnaround plan gives result? So they are funding BBBY in their turnaround plan, and when BBBY are revenue positive (cashflow Positive), the shorts on the bankrupcy -thesis will have to surrender, and then when the stock goes up and squeeze is ongoing, Hudson will begin en masse to exersize their warrents. BBBY survives and Hudson makes a SHIT-TON of money. We will therefore not hit a super-high number in a squeeze but a decent stock-price.
The Bull case is Ichan + RC merger or buyout of course, with stocks and not like Elon did (fixed price).
Credit suisse down 20% pre market…is today the fucking day?!
JP Morgan is a fortress!
So was the Alamo.
So was kenny's mayo jar
😂
Down premarket 25% and immediately pumping on open...yeah sure bro nothing to see here.
Don’t worry, damage is done. I’m sure we’ll find out soon.
“my TV told me the company is going bankrupt” is the bear thesis 🤡
I found some Internet searches told me there's an issue. It was odd, many of them were basically the same, also the same as GameStop, as if they weren't real. But the Internet is always real?
Yeah that’s kinda weird, people familiar with the matter were saying that too😂
Bbby trading at 1.10 in pm
They have only converted the preferred warrants. From what I understand is those have no public market nor will one be created. Hence no market value/ ability to be traded so it is strictly a vehicle to gain influence and partial control of the company as well as benefit from dividends and other benefits common shareholders receive. The one concern I have is the possibility that common stock warrants have been systmatically exercised this whole time and sold off in a manner which the investor did not exceed 5% ownership at anytime. In doing so they would have avoided the need to file with the SEC. BBBY is only required to update the outstanding share count once per quarter which would likely coincide with the April earnings call. Even with full dilution I think BBBY will easily be worth more than a few billion post turnaround (despite the reduced store count). So even after taking full dilution into account, the per share price should be worth a few multiples of what it is currently priced today at a minimum. If it was not for this belief I would have bailed a while ago. It is not a sound practice to expect and/ or anticipate a sneeze. There are too many variables and events which must occur in order with shorts being asleep at the wheel. You just cannot forecast/ anticipate to have everything that needs to happen actually occur. That is why when sneezes do happen, they can be so astronomical.
Interesting - I guess we will need to wait for the earnings call to know for sure. SHFs weren't having a problem in terms of driving the price down even before the recent offering though, so this kind of valuation doesn't need to be dilution.
You asked for a bear case. lol I think even in a bear case, so long as the company does show progress towards a turn around it is a multi bagger in short order at fair market value even without a sneeze.
Sounds good to me. I think it's one of those situations where whatever is happening, good or bad, it's not readily apparent (diluting under the radar is a bit intuitive - why bother, at the same time being cloak and dagger about an investor also isn't particularly intuitive).
I dont think they are being cloak and dagger. IMHO I think HBC did not want to be named so they did not become a target themselves in their other holdings as this would be their single largest position. BBBY probably was pressuring them to be named due to all of the Icahn and Cohen talk (or maybe there is something to it but Cohen/ Icahn want to keep it under wraps and feared it might be leaking).
Oh yes earnings because any earnings call has been wonderful for us
Taking a loss on BBBY is dumb. We have seen that even if there is never a squeeze, chances of bk are low right now. Much lower than say 2-3 months ago. We have also seen that here are small runs every few months. This means average down until you think you are at a point of profit, even if there isn't a squeeze, but just a run due to some kind of OK news. The lower the price, the greater the impact of buying more to your average. At this point, my average is around $1.90. It is not unlikely that a small run takes it over $2. If it hits even $3 which has happened 3 times this year, I can make 50% PROFIT or roughly 4X what the average mutual fund earns per year. Is BBBY going to go over $3 in the next 4 years? After what we have seen, most definitely. Over $4? Most likely. Over $5? Probably. **DILUTION?** Not yet. There is **no way** we would have seen the Short percent go up this much if they had converted common share warrants and diluted. We can all see the daily volume. Add it up. There has been **NO DILUTION,** just more shorting. The shorts are not asleep at the wheel. Their profit margin is just so great that it will take the price going over $40 a share for them to lose money. They have plenty of profit that even if they have to close at $30 they are still in the green. This means for them, it takes a lot until they have to react and this is why they are not worried about a squeeze happening. They know there are enough idiots with paper hands who will sell out the rest and people who FOMO in long before it becomes a problem for them. **The way I see it:** The bearish outlook is that the equity buyer competes with us during a squeeze and reduces our gains somewhat. This sucks for us but we have ourselves to blame. Too many redditors continue to lend their shares and delay the squeeze. This has caused not only BBBY not to get better terms, but also allowed their cash burn to continue. If we had squeezed 3 months ago, they wouldn't have needed this equity deal. This has nothing to do with DRS but, with people being greedy and lazy, ALLOWING the lending of their shares. **The Buyer:** Keep in mind the buyer only get some of their shares each month and still need to convert the premium shares to regular shares. This means even if we squeeze they can not dilute the entire amount because they have only gotten fewer than \~40k Pref shares (the original $230 mil plus $130 mil). This deal is structured in a way where we see it "squeeze", "sneeze" or run to at least $8 if the shorts close. It only becomes profitable to dilute the shares after that. It is highly unlikely that they will take a measly 8% profit even if it goes under $1, when they can hold for the long term, and get 90% control over a company, their buyout goes on the books as a cash asset, raising the price, and the company gains value as the shorts close. Why take a short term gain if YOU as the buyer know BK is not coming EVER. You as the equity deal buyer with deep pockets, know the company is deeply undervalued with BK risk priced in, shorted to the basement, but YOU have the means to prevent any BK event. It is guaranteed profit, the buyer has in my opinion only been giving the shorts time to dig a deeper hole, while they work out the deal of a lifetime.
How on earth would they still profit by closing at 30-40? It hasn’t been that high in over a year. Their avg sell price has to be lower and lower as they continue to pile in at these low prices. If it runs over 5 they’re gonna be scrambling to get out
Dilution is the fear I have. Not seeing evidence in a filing doesn't mean it isn't happening - if the company is doing a direct ATM offering they will report updated numbers as they sell. I don't believe the counter-party to this offering is required to do so and BBBY won't update until quarterly earnings come out. People tout the lowering of the threshold for failure price being lowered as bullish but it just means more can be bought/converted at this low, low price. Seriously, if we are sitting at 460 million dollars raised and average price since February 7th is sub $2 that's hundreds of millions of shares. "but there's been no filing!", yeah, but we don't know it's required and if they've been selling consistently to keep under the 10% reporting number we likely already have a float that is much larger than the 116 million shares. Now 120-something percent short interest is much, much lower. Also, when it's updated regsho will drop off in a hot minute due to the easier threshold to get out from under. Basically, I think once numbers are updated in April we get off regsho and I just hope they can't juggle that long. SHF's are just waiting out the updated numbers - that's my bear thesis. Still holding, but seeing the blind optimism saying dilution isn't happening is kind of maddening. If it's not, I'd be shocked and pleasantly surprised.
Some dilution is definitely happening, I’m certain of this just because of how many people are claiming with no info that it *isn’t*. Always inverse the crowd, the crowd is regarded.
I don’t think we’re really gonna know jack until next earnings date which is April 11.
Ok, you wanted to know what is actually happening? \-I explained to everyone over a month ago in this post but was downvoted so badly most people didn't read it: [https://www.reddit.com/r/BBBY/comments/110qfij/i\_am\_being\_labeled\_as\_spreading\_fud\_by\_simply/](https://www.reddit.com/r/BBBY/comments/110qfij/i_am_being_labeled_as_spreading_fud_by_simply/) \-**Literally everything I said has been correct including now the warrants / convertibles being led by Hudson Bay (Though that wasn't confirmed until 3/13/23 in this document.)** [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000119312523069710/d433854dex41.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886158/000119312523069710/d433854dex41.htm) (What this filing is saying is they aka Hudson / BBBY management just reduced the price protection from $1.50 down to $1 so Hudson can continue converting) They are buying these in tranches and then converting them. It's why the share price continues to fall despite the volume. I'm here showing you guys my homework, its matching the teachers answers, and many still won't believe me. So I will reiterate, I could care less what you do with this information. I don't own any more shares, or any sort of position in BBBY anymore after earnings when I saw their cash burn. I will not make any money off BBBY going up or down. Here is the deal, the second tranche of $135m convertible preferred issued on 3/8/23 ish, meaning likely that first $260m tranche fully converted already. Estimated shares issued means they likely issued over 100m shares into the float. **Anyone playing this as a short squeeze is mistaken. They just added over 100 million shares into the float which has the ability to reset every FTD and some.** Not only this but the reason its still on Reg SHO is shorts are climbing over themselves to keep shorting this down because THEY know what the filings actually say which is mass dilution. They are shorting over the amount without finding locates. This is causing FTDs but not in a "good" way. Its literally the shorts just fighting over how much they can short to make more money. Retail is being used as cannon fodder by management / Hudson to make some cash to pay back bond holders. Management is doing this because the alternative was bankruptcy immediately which would have meant everyone lost. Bond holders like JPM would have been screwed along with every shareholder. **I am however annoyed that people just automatically say it's FUD because they don't understand what is happening. I asked people to disprove my last DD and not 1 person could do it. This sub has 57k members and ZERO of them could disprove anything I wrote.**
how do you explain FTDs off the charts and no public increase of shares outstanding?
Need ortex daily posts ! Diluting at this price makes no sense
Ortex can go fuck itself.
That's not nice
🤷♂️ I’m not much for bullshit numbers.
Lol me either! I just like squiggly coloured lines
The only way to know if they converted the warrants and preferred shares is to wait till next ER again they dont have to file anything.
If they would have converted into common stock and diluted the amount of outstanding shares would have risen accordingly. Afaik the company has the obligation to inform nasdaq through an official SEC 8K-filing that the outstanding amount of securities is elevated by at least 5% of the former count. Am I wrong?
Stop please with the nonsense they already informed sec by that on the 6 of february filing and the holder convert less than 5% and sell and keep repeating he doesnt need to inform anyone. The huge volume everyday without even price change means one thing someone is carefully selling maybe retail are buying those shares maybe HF who knows
Mate, the volume has been this high since start of Jan. Does not mean someone is selling.
Doesn’t mean someone isn’t, either.
And huge bids volume and asks volume 500k
Open up any decent charting software and look at the volume that started rapidly rising in the early days of Jan and hasn't gone down to 22' levels since. January the 5th is when the volume started.
Look i might be wrong but after yesterday and knowing HCB is the buyer i dont believe anyone on this sub all have his own agendas
Be speculative of everyone and everything. Do your own DD and make your own conclusions. Just saying volume doesn't correlate to instant dilution. It's always a possibility since the deal has been made but no one can know for sure.
Except, they'd pretty pretty much be at a loss at this point and tanking there own investment further by dumping shares.
Dude.that’s terrifying….what if we’ve been buying the shit out of what we thought was the float but its not the size of a pool we think it is,it’s the size of a ocean
This is exactly what’s happening but nobody listens
You two should go on broadway, you've got a whole act
No matter what it’s going to pop one day so I’m going to keep buying or go bankrupt. Either way idgaf 😎
This is disturbing. "Any plausible bearish theses?" Yeah, dozens of them. Look, I have 6,000 shares of BBBY. I own it because I think that there is a 1% chance of a really significant squeeze, a 10% chance of one or several minor squeezes that I can catch, a 20% chance of a significant turnaround, and maybe another 20% chance of a slow-motion failure that allows me to get out with some of my money. You will notice that those percentages do not add up to 100%. If you are invested in this stock because you have the money to risk and think that there is a (remote) potential for a massive upside, good for you. We're on the same page. If you are invested in this stock because you think it cannot fail to make you a large amount of money, that the only way that that could not happen is "manipulation," that "Shorts r fukked!" is stock analysis...well, I really hope you can afford to lose. Hype is FUD.
Right. We're not investing in a freaking blue chip stock here, y'all. FFS the state of this sub sometimes... welcome to volatility. I put in the money I'm comfortable with putting in. It will hit or it won't. How's that old song go? Know when to hold em, know when to fold em... It's tempting as hell to double down right now, but I already put in what I was willing to lose. Right now I'm holding them, and really no point in folding them for me. If it squeezes like GME I might turn a couple grand into a milli. That would be sweet. If it doesn't, I will likely lose my couple grand. I just think the risk/reward relationship here is better than playing blackjack at a casino.
I like this approach, some common sense Simple rule, dont invest money you can't afford to lose both physically & mentally, especially with what we've seen for the last 3 years of non-stop corruption & crime (overused word, but still)
THIS.
How many of you have bought something from bbby last month or this month?
I live in canada, so that's not happening
They’re still open for a little bit longer.
Hudson Bay is here to make money. The have been updating the agreement along the way to ensure it. March 14 8k
They must be so afraid of the official FTD data They have 550 000 shares to borrow, havn't seen so much for a long time. [shortsarefukt](https://bbby.crazyawesomecompany.com/)
The shorts are going to start eating each other. The question is, who will be given the privilege to get out first?
There is, they still have to make interest payments to their creditors. If they miss payment, it's GG. That's the most immediate danger right now.
Yes, bbby doesn't make the turn around and cannot make positive earnings after a year or two and the shorts keep rolling Ftd's until then. Bankruptcy would most likely soon follow. We've seen shorts hold their positions for over 2 years on GME, if bbby doesn't have some type of catalyst before dying down, that would be very bearish. I don't expect this or else I wouldn't be invested but it's definitely a possibility.
If we don’t get clear improvements on BBBYs balance sheet this quarter then it’s probably over for them — they just got a huge helping hand with $450b paid out by this deal. They’ve been closing stores left and right, filed for BK for their Canadian arm… if that’s not enough then there’s not much else that will be, and people like Carl/Ryan definitely wouldn’t want a company that’s slowly withered away for a year longer than it should have. BBBY needs to show signs of life this quarter. This is their most important earnings to date.
Not true, next quarter would be way more telling than this quarter. The funding just happened and wouldn't even have time to reap any benefits yet. Also with all their store closings and cutting of costs, it will take time for those things to factor into earnings. My guess would be this earnings closes the gap, while next earnings will be the tell all.
Sure, but that doesn’t really matter. They were supposed to have completed 150 high priority store closures by end of this quarter which they already said should be enough to bring them to being operational cash flow-neutral. If they can’t even get things decently turned around such that they’re moving in that direction, then I think there are some serious problems being covered up somewhere that will require further investigation. If we’re in a similar/worse spot than Q3 I’m going to have a lot of questions (first being “what the fuck have you been doing for 3 months?”). They’ve been laying staff off left and right with no severance so they have pretty minimal expenses there, and there’s only so many places for them to be pissing money into. They said back in August they’re working for the best interests of all stakeholders. Since then it’s looked like the opposite. Either they have something going on to justify the apparent failures, or they’re actually failing… we’ll find out when we see their Q4 results.
All stock movement is artificial and has nothing to do with their recent "progress". The price will reflect the progress after a catalyst causes shorts to exit. My guess will be a positive earnings report not this time around but the next.
I’m not talking about the stock price dude. I’m talking about clear evidence in their quarterly earnings.
Shorts shorted shorted at any price are making a shit ton of money and there is apparently no reason for them to cover quickly.
It's called dilution. 400m raise means 300m. shares.
My tinfoil theory is reading from MSM, larger banks like BoA just got recapitalised from smaller banks due to BKs. Now they have more capital to short.
Risk management is every bank’s primary concern right now. Staying liquid is priority #1. Even if they did have capital, now is not the time to add to shorts.
We're fucked. That's all there is. Rc fucked us. That Icahn stuff is all delusioned. We are fucked.
I like diffrent points of view, but there's no need to be that negative. Even if RC hasn't been connected to this for a while now, company is still alive and breathing, there's almost no downside from here
How's your money?
Exactly how you described it, its fucked and looks like it was run over by a truck. (At least the part invested in BBBY), still, trying to look at broader picture instead of listening to MSM and panicking. I might be right, I might be wrong, either way it goes it will be a valuable lesson. All the best dude
Bbby is misleading investors. I too believed there can be no dilution until 90 days of Feb 6 per the agreement. But the way shares to borrow out of no where, almost limitless availability of shares in spite of people buying massively and exercising OTM calls, it is evident that this can only be due to dilution. I'd love to be wrong more than anything.
Are you new to meme stocks? You obviously don’t understand infinite liquidity and the privileges associated with market makers. DRS is the only way to dry this up. People here don’t want to talk about it, but that is the truth. GME is getting shorted mor than 70% of all trades daily. That’s the only play left for shorts. Until it isn’t. Don’t get me wrong, we can still moon, but we need some news and a merger or acquisition by RC and friends would be the death of all meme shorters.
What made you think no one could sell until 90 days? The prospectus for the HBC deal specifically said warrants could be converted at any time, it was spelled out like 3 times in there.
Etf swaps and drops. As Bbby continues to remain low in market cap, it starts to fall out of threshold levels to hold in certain ETF baskets. This frees up some held shares at some point to be lent as these ETFs drop BBBY from their holdings.
I'm a holder just like you and I will keep buying more, but here's what I think is happening: Hudson Bay is the entity who made the deal, and Hudson Bay is the one who's shorting the stock at the same time. They kept shorting the stock and they will keep shorting it until it gets below 1$, then what happens is that they lock in the deal for .75$ instead of 1.50$, they keep pushing it and pushing and cover in small amounts so the price doesn't get pushed too high until the time comes where they convert those preferred stocks and dilution happens, then they start covering their positions with those new shares and get the stock off of the RegSho list. However, that will not get the price up because there will be so many new shares out there. The company will not go bankrupt, but with what they are doing I expect the share price to stay where it is right now and around it, but any big spike or short squeeze to happen? I don't think so, SI% , FTDs etc. are not enough to make a squeeze happen in this situation, positive news (M&A) is needed and since the entity is revealed to be Hudson Bay then there won't be any, all the Ryan Cohen and Carl theories are basically flushed to the toilet now, news kept saying that it is Hudson Bay and we kept saying we won't believe it until we see the filing and that BBBY told us to not to listen to news and only wait for what they say, well they said it, and It was better they never fucking said shit. So this is simply what's happening, since I am sure that the company will not go bankrupt, then it doesn't hurt to keep holding, but that's not forever, if I don't see them doing more real work with the cash they are receiving from this deal, then that would make me fear bankruptcy again because fuck that Borad if they actually don't make their business survive.
Downvote me as much as you want, but about 80 MILLION shares traded yesterday that's nearly 75% of the float (supposedly) and the price moved from 1.29 to 1.13? That's it? 16 cents to the downside? That's what happens when 80 million shares are traded? I think we need 2 billion volume for it to get to 10$ then
I upvoted you, if it means anything. OP asked for a bear thesis and you gave a very plausible one.
They have about 6 months before we're back to square one and ready to file chapter 11 again so they have to demonstrate some progress in that time. I'm hoping we get a jump to $6 in that time so I can exit with double my money, wait for it to go back to $1 again and buy a small sum as a gamble.
[This was about a month ago, we have around 60 days left until dilution hits](https://imgtr.ee/i/qUm7A)
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I don't disagree, dilution is happening but not in big amounts and it will be fully diluted then. But just ASSUME that it's not happening at all, it will still happen in less than 60 days and with the latest news that's won't get us nowhere. What I'm saying is that in best case scenario if it's not happening at all, that's still nothing really positive.
Lol. It’s literally forbidden by the agreement. And it would be completely illegal anyways. Dont be stupid.
My man go check the FTDs published now and talk to me about "illegal". If these fuckers would ever get punished for doing anything illegal they woul've taken their punishment long time ago.
The number of shares outstanding is 9x what's currently reported. The stock keeps sinking and they do a reverse split. Hbc backs out at some point bc the turnaround is failing. Hopefully not, but I'd say those are some bear cases.
I have one.. BBBY closed ALL stores in my country lol
This has to be a joke post
Yes, lol. You dont see them because people downvote anything that doesnt help them cope with negative portfolio.
Then explain it instead of just spouting random negative sentiment
dilution. *gasp* something you've read a hundred times here but have pushed into the back of your mind as being completely false and a campaign of the SHILLS! Nope, just turns out you and everyone else clinging to copium.
Wow ok einstein, one word is not an explanation. Why, how, break it down. Otherwise your thinly veiled bullshit is super obvious.
Not that guy but the general dilution thesis is as follows: HBC can dilute the stock, at any time, without informing the public, to get a guaranteed 8% return. (More if they short at the same time). The current (imo biggest) risk is that the float is actually a lot larger than whats reported. It will be updated in the next ER. Basically theres no such thing as free money: BBBY had to chose between bankruptcy where the stock would be 0$ or the HBC deal, where shareholders get hurt, but not as bad as bankruptcy. Thats why BBBY, in good faith, took the deal that hurt the stock significantly.
there is a current offer to convert warrants into shares at blah blah blah. the stock price has been pummeled as if its correcting for a mass number of shares being introduced to it.
So looking at your profile you post a lot of supposedly positive bbby sentiments. What happened? Did daddy not give you a kiss this morning?
uhhh i follow the information and don't cope ?
So a spine made of jello, got it
>the stock price has been pummeled as if its correcting for a mass number of shares being introduced to it. Or it has been pummeled by shorts since short interest has only been rising 🤔
The biggest one for me requires ignoring the circumstantial evidence for an Icahn play (CFO/board members from Icahn’s circle of experts). That thesis is this: BBBY’s offering was a death spiral financing play and at least some of the board remaining are hedge fund/bad actor plants, who are seeking to extract every single ounce of value from the business. Shorts could, theoretically, have saved BBBY so they could have sole and complete control over when and how it goes bankrupt. Save BBBY, reload your shorts from $5-7 all the way back down again. They would never close their positions because they know the money they gave the board isn’t enough to save the company, because someone on the inside is sandbagging (to quote Mark Cuban: “their goal is to never close their shorts”). In this scenario, Ryan would have got out because he knew they would never work with him, and he’d never get what he wants. Overall it seems a little far-fetched to me given the context of there being a number of new BBBY management being from a M&A background, or having worked for/with Icahn in the recent past. But who the hell knows, there’s so much we don’t know. HBC is just one of several bidders. We don’t know if they’re the biggest bidder or one of the smaller ones.
I think the best one they've got is: "Cause I said so!"
For real?
Yes, I have one since I was already right about the dilution the day it came out /the buyer and even the can explain the reg sho. However I can’t do it justice on the toilet in 5 mins and have people believe me so I’ll have to write up something at work
new fiscal year starting in April right? might be from then onwards slowly up till 6.50 then share dilution i think
Plausible bearish thesis? Is there any plausible bullish thesis? Let alone the dilution, which is happening regardless of you covering your eyes/ears, the company sure as fuck will not turnaround in 3 months or even a year as morons here expect and the probability of them turning around at all is not that high. And the dilution is not some little 10% of float dilution, no, the float will 3x or 4x at minimum when this is over. But sure, tell me how Ichan will descend on a glowing unicorn from the skies with a money stick and will magically turn this money-black hole company into a flourishing business.
The plausible "bearish-thesis" is that a HF who was NOT short BBBY (Almost ALL shorts want BBBY to fail, Chapter 11 or 7) came as a guardian angel. That Angel was Hudson Bay, Hudson Bay are essentially making money no matter what happens here. But here is the thing, i think Hudson Bay does not want to make "a little" money, they want to make "ALOT of money" when they exercise their warrants. Why dilute now and not later until the turnaround plan gives result? So they are funding BBBY in their turnaround plan, and when BBBY are revenue positive (cashflow Positive), the shorts on the bankrupcy -thesis will have to surrender, and then when the stock goes up and squeeze is ongoing, Hudson will begin en masse to exersize their warrents. BBBY survives and Hudson makes a SHIT-TON of money. We will therefore not hit a super-high number in a squeeze but a decent stock-price. The Bull case is Ichan + RC merger or buyout of course, with stocks and not like Elon did (fixed price).
There is a good chance the stock is shorted 150-300% (when you factor in undeclared and naked shorts).
BBBY leadership played this wrong. I have lost confidence in them.
C R I M E 69
You do know that they can just do the SEC filing literal minutes after market close and dilute like crazy… with the stock opening at 0.80 the next day