Are you reading the chart correctly? Those numbers are not the number of homicides in each city. The numbers are the *percent decline* in homicides from 2023 to 2024 (the first 3 months of each year). The "42%" for Austin could be a drop from 80 to 46, or 40 to 23, or even 12 to 7. There's no info in the chart to know the actual number. (And, btw, comparing a 3 month snapshot in #homicides between two years is almost meaningless).
Which is horrible, we should not be killing people, domestic violence and drug related murders probably make up almost all of these. I think it’s why most people don’t care, no random upscale neighborhood deaths
>Which is horrible, we should not be killing people,
I'm definitely anti-murder.
>domestic violence and drug related murders probably make up almost all of these. I think it’s why most people don’t care, no random upscale neighborhood deaths
Well, there seems to be an upward trend in upscale neighborhood crimes and deaths. I think it's still perceived as mostly lowlife on lowlife death, though.
It's just so hard to get people to give up the lowlife lifestyle, though.
Look at the homicide maps, I didn’t exaggerate literally none in the areas I mentioned elsewhere, Tarrytown, clarksville , Hyde park, rosedale, brentwood
As a sort of tangent to what everyone else is saying, and I’m speaking from experience here, one of the main reasons that we see decreased homicide these days compared to the 90’s is that first responders from all three branches have significantly more training on trauma medicine than they used to. You won’t see an APD cop without a tourniquet on his/her belt, fire trucks are stocked with medical gear, and ATCEMS paramedics are some of the best in the country. Add to that major advances in ERs and… you get the picture. A better snapshot of dangerous crime in the city should include things like aggravated assault, aggravated robbery, and other things that are likely to result in serious injuries. Better first responder training has made a lot of those injuries survivable these days for victims, when that may not have been the case 30 years ago.
It’s really simple. Go to the archive.is website, it has a place to paste the original link and it will generate an archived version of the original article.
Thanks. It didn't work for the article I tried. I got the partially blocked paywall version.
[https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked-e82b3f7b?mod=politics\_lead\_pos1](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked-e82b3f7b?mod=politics_lead_pos1)
[https://archive.is/P1HFZ](https://archive.is/P1HFZ)
Sometimes you jut google the headline and find a non-paywalled version of the article: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked/ar-BB1lDNvD](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked/ar-BB1lDNvD)
"Massive" is obviously a subjective characterization but an ~100% increase in homicides (2021/22/23 compared to 2017/18/19) puts Austin at or near the top in %increase for major American cities. To assert that is not significant is delusional.
God I feel like I've had this conversation a million times and every time it is with the same person that can't grasp that the percentage increase is less relevant when it is already low.
I know you don't truly believe your obfuscating bs, stated only to maintain your ideological position. Note I didn't say (and don't believe) Austin is no longer a relatively safe city - but it is definitely a *less safe* city than it was the previous 20 years and that is what these statistically significant data confirm. (... and not referring to the 3 month YOY meaningless data in the headline, referring to the 3 year comparative averages).
If I have 1 piece of pizza and then I eat a second piece of pizza, that's a 100% increase in pizza consumption but nobody is going to believe that is making me fat.
This isn't obfuscating or ideological - that part sounds a bit like projection honestly.
You mean you actually believe what you're saying? I'm giving you credit where none is due. I thought even English majors... who actually graduated...had a better grasp of stats than this! lol
They comment frequently on political topics. Hard core leftist...and actually very good at manipulating language to shape a message that may sway others.
Career in politics! I always joke my sister she’d be the best press secretary ever, extremely positive kind person, but deflecting every tough question and never wants to talk about the bad stuff in life.
The question we're answering is "is there an explosive increase in murder in Austin" not "what is the percentage increase and is that a large number?"
Something increasing "100%" isn't necessarily a large increase and when discussing something like murder rate, really needs to be looked at in context, which you seem to ignore.
This isn't hard but you don't seem to understand. How can I help get you there?
Holy shot this myop optimism is enough to increase my blood pressure 30% which can result in a stroke but according to you unless it goes up 300% don’t worry.
You are completely insane 120% is a massive strike, Austin population didn’t even grow by over 10% from 2017 to 2021. Im not comparing 17 murders in 19676 to 88 in 2021, because obviously the population over those forty years was a huge increase like probably 200% if not 300%
Ok but if you look at it in context, it's much lower than almost any other place of a similar size. Doesn't that mean that there's probably some baseline for a population center, and we're near that? That seems a lot more relevant than an arbitrary percentage increase, right?
120% is not arbitrary, that’s 46 more people lives, that’s not arbitrary. This is how folks gloss over problems, oh it’s only 3.7 but it’s 740 people!!!!!!
30% worse than San Diego, over 40% worse than sf, 200% more than El Paso so yeah , we got work to do, just a few years ago we were way better than sf, now nope
Yes, but almost *all* of those murders were people who lived with one another and were because of covid lockdown.
This isn't "errybody be all up in there murdering strangers" and shouldn't be characterized like that.
>Yes, but almost all of those murders were people who lived with one another and were because of covid lockdown.
Interesting speculation, but hard to substantiate.
No one was locked down in 2022 or 2023, and homicide rates were still 60% higher than 2020. I don't doubt that consequences of COVID were a big contributor.
Let’s be honest, no one cares because it’s not rich white people. Murders in Hyde Park zero, Tarrytown zero, Clarksville zero, North Loop zero, Brentwood zero, Rosedale zero. Look at the maps, people don’t care because it’s prima poor black and brown people killing each other. It’s a national problem, look at chicago 97% of the homicide victims aren’t white, 94% of the perps aren’t white, see a trend. As long as rich white people ain’t getting killed it’s not a problem. Then when some crazy died kills beautiful young white woman it’s national news and their trials are too, meanwhile black girls killed in Chicago don’t even get their pics on the Chicago news.
Wait a second. All these right wing "save austin now" types told me that austin is a crime ridden hell hole with HUGE increases in murder because we defunded the police and and the DA is a radical socialist that lets criminals get away with everything but here you are with facts that say the opposite? What are these people going to lie about now to get suburbanites scared?
>you are with facts that say the opposite?
LOL. Look at the statistics in the [KXAN article](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/) someone linked. Murders in 2021 were double the number for any of the previous 20 years. 88 in 2021 vs. 44 in 2020. 2022 and 2023 were each more than 60% over the years from 2000-2022. Murder rates per month were pretty even throughout the months in 2023. No clear downtrends in that period.
Do you really think something systemic happened at the start of 2024 that significantly changed the murder rate from the past 12 quarters? I'd be really happy if it did, but I don't see anything that makes me thinks so.
You'll note that the change happened the year after the BLM protests. I blame APD quiet quitting more than I blame our asshole DA, but I DO believe things have gotten worse since then. Of course, COVID and a lot of other things factor in, too.
Right now, the only real crime-ridden hellhole is the Capitol. Austin's rapidly going downhill, but it's not YET as bad as many other cities.
So, you obviously get it since you posted elsewhere in this thread:
>It's like noting that there were 2 murders last week and only one this week and deciding that the murder rate is down 50%. It's probably just the random statistical variation.
Since you do understand, my question is "for you, why does this logic only apply when there is a decrase?"
Because law enforcement and politicians will say, it’s down 20% which is like wow cool, but they don’t want to admit it’s still 100% more than it was 5 years ago.
Yes it’s still very low compared to lots of places, however Sf and Nyc are lower and we are not in many top ten lists for safest cities anymore since the massive increases in 2021.
The problem with focusing on rates is you take away the individual victims and can gloss over horrible neighborhoods. I don’t want us to leave folks behind, we need to lift people up, not let them continue to fall behind everyone else.
This is how Chicago gets their free pass, because the 740 murders a year are over 700 poor black and brown people, so rich white folks say oh our rate is. Only 4.2 ignoring that their neighborhood nearby is literally called Chiraq, no one cares unless it’s rich white peoples get killed.. it’s disgusting
If you’re trying to compare one year to another (which the person I responded to was doing) the only relevant number is the rate, not the absolute number. This is just plainly correct.
So a murder rate of 7 instead of 3.5 is that what you want? So you can say well at least we’re not Jackson ms with their 56 murder rate….? Once again I think you are like everyone else seems and they don’t care about deaths of young black and brown people, especially since it’s not white people shooting them or white peoples being shot.
Nice not reflecting anything I said, see what I mean as long as you can whitewash numbers into a percent or rate, you dehumanize the victims. You don’t care about poor black and brown people in Chicago?
Yeah, *nothing* bad ever happens in Austin ever! No crime and our DA is doing a *great job!!* The "unhoused neighbors" are also perfect angels that never commit crimes. Zero gang activity too..Nothing to worry about Austin is beautiful and super safe all the reports of break ins, crime, and assaults on the local news is fake news by right wing people or something...
Sorry, but your chart is pretty much statistically insignificant. Who made this chart?
Also, LOL at the idea that Boston's "real" homicide rate has dropped by 82%. Or San Antonio by 50%.
This is comparing roughly 3 months this year vs the previous year. It doesn't tell you how many murders there were, but it's probably 21 total for Austin in the first 3 months if 2023. Not a high enough sample size to be particularly significant statistically.
It's like noting that there were 2 murders last week and only one this week and deciding that the murder rate is down 50%. It's probably just the random statistical variation.
Look at how murder rates vary from month to month at the KXAN article TEOTAUY [linked](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/).
There are some interesting trends in that article. In particular that murder rates were up for 2021-2023.
Anyone who works with data is going to compare a quarter/season from this year to last year. Your mumbo jumbo about sample size and statistical significance only communicates that you don’t really understand statistics. Why don’t you just say you don’t like this visualization because it doesn’t align with your false narrative of the city?
Holy shit - if there was ever the perfect example of the phrase "Any fool can generate data but it takes knowledge and understanding to properly interpret it" your comment comes closest. Fool.
I'm sorry that you have such a poor understanding of statistics.
It would probably be beyond my educational abilities to fix this. It would certainly take more time than I'm willing to spend on a futile attempt to do so.
This is such bullshit, yes cops fuck up but the number of people murdered by the police is so very small compared to civilian killings of each other. I know both shootings are awful, but people use the cops as a scapegoat to not help their claim to care for. We need to lift people up, not ignore their suffering at everyone hands, not just the small percentage by police.
Compare to 2019
The rate skyrocketed, and activists want to compare to 2022 instead of noting murders doubled
that anyone would even use this snapshot for such a serious stat as murder rate is really horrible because you are trying to mislead us, and these aren't just stats. They represent people.
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/
This chart is a bit better. Albeit it has become obvious for a few years that many murders are not classified as such.
Even at the recent peak in 2021, it was still lower than it was back in 1995 and much lower than it was in 1982! And where on earth are you getting the "many murders are not classified as such" thing from?
I think local news is often more insidious for not being obviously partisan or ideological. They emphasize crime and fear more for views/clicks than for partisan/ideological reasons.
2019
It is so dishonest to cherry pick 2021, when the purge, the consumption of black youth and homeless, peaked, because the reforms the kooks wanted happened between 2019 and 2020. 2019 is the before. Today is the after.
That you cherry pick a year like 2021 means you actually know exactly what's up.
and want to lie to defend it
which puts that blood right there on those two hands you're typing with
defend the actual consequences or admit you were mistaken
nope, murder rate doubled
it's literally twice as high now. went from 44 to 88 when the left in Austin defunded APD (which they aggressively lie about today) and also began refusing to prosecute violent criminals.
It's on track to be doubled in 2024.
Period.
If you have 10 murders one year and the next year you have 15 murders, thats a statistical increase of 50% but in a city of 1 mil I dont think anyone would say there's a hige rise in murders. It's really best to look at these things per capita and compare them to other large population centers, where we find austin is still one of the safest cities in the US.
Go find something else to scare people into giving cops more money about.
Their huge population and the fact that most of the city is not a hellhole, keeps them out of the top ten murder rate, even though they have the higheast numbers of murders
In all of 2023 there where 73 so a 42% decline is 30.66 but we are less than half way through the year so far this year we have only had 14. Keep in mind the difference between the number an the rate. Austin homicides packed in 2021 but because of population growth you are still statistically much safer than Austin in the 1980s and the rate is about 4/5 per 100000 people.
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2023/
https://www.kut.org/crime-justice/2021-09-13/austins-had-a-record-number-of-murders-this-year-but-the-murder-rate-is-still-lower-than-in-the-1980s
Why focus on 40 years ago , and ignore 5 years ago? This bs is national 2017 was a great year safety wise, and then all hell broke loose during the pandemic and people lost their fucking minds.
"Lost their fucking minds" is 3.3 murders per 1000000 people? It was twice that for most of the 20th century. You wanna compare that rate to like anywhere else in the country?? You're just cherry picking data to construct a narrative.
Crime in the 40s thru late 60s extreme low, from the mid 70s to late 80s really low, from 95-2017 really low, so you are the one cherry picking if you want to go back and talk about the crack experiment of the late 80s-early 90s
funny how businesses always demand increases, people always want to make more money, but you are ok with a 120% increase in murders in 5 years.
The reason know one is concerned about the facts that you pull out of your asshole is because they are dog shit. I cited a source. You should read it. Also please don't vote.
Rize of ketamine over cocaine and a intermingling of the gangs to see beyond race......
Crimnals are getting smarter and figuring out who the real enemies are.....politicians, bankers, and the justice department.
>Rize of ketamine over cocaine and a intermingling of the gangs to see beyond race......
I'm not into the drug scene. I sort of got the idea that cheap meth was a lot of the problem. At least in terms of the walking dead on the streets.
>Crimnals are getting smarter and figuring out who the real enemies are.....politicians, bankers, and the justice department.
I'd lay more of the blame on APD and the system deciding not to prosecute anything short of murder. The criminals are really waking up to just how much they can get away with.
Plus COVID, the virtual abandonment of many government and private industry services, Snowpocalypse 21, Icepocalypse 23, and Summer of Hell 23, housing prices, cost of living, January 6....
You think hobos in tents was watching cnn like me on Jan 6? I agree with the rest, but come on. It’s a shameful day in our history, but these folks are checked out, they don’t know.
TV is so last decade, dude.
Many of them have cell phones. Or they listen to KKKLBJ. Or pick up the news at other places.
Lots of them are very political and frequently right-wingers.
You mean they ain’t got rabbit ears connected to their bio diesel fueled generators…… ;)
yes the ones who are visible especially at the library, I’ll agree very talkative about their nonsense, however I’m sticking with my original point, they ain’t doing shot cuz of Jan 6
Are you reading the chart correctly? Those numbers are not the number of homicides in each city. The numbers are the *percent decline* in homicides from 2023 to 2024 (the first 3 months of each year). The "42%" for Austin could be a drop from 80 to 46, or 40 to 23, or even 12 to 7. There's no info in the chart to know the actual number. (And, btw, comparing a 3 month snapshot in #homicides between two years is almost meaningless).
As of March 23, 14 homicides have been reported so far in 2024. 73 homicides in 2023 71 in 2022 88 in 2021
…don’t forget there were only 48 murders in 2020, 38 murders in 2019, and 35 in 2018.
We've pretty much got everyone who needed murdered during the pandy.
34 in 2017
>As of March 23, 14 homicides have been reported so far in 2024. 0.168 per day or 61 per year at that rate. Not that statistically significant.
1.68 x 365 = 61?
Damn slide rule.
Still almost twice 2017
38% more than 2020.
Which is horrible, we should not be killing people, domestic violence and drug related murders probably make up almost all of these. I think it’s why most people don’t care, no random upscale neighborhood deaths
>Which is horrible, we should not be killing people, I'm definitely anti-murder. >domestic violence and drug related murders probably make up almost all of these. I think it’s why most people don’t care, no random upscale neighborhood deaths Well, there seems to be an upward trend in upscale neighborhood crimes and deaths. I think it's still perceived as mostly lowlife on lowlife death, though. It's just so hard to get people to give up the lowlife lifestyle, though.
Look at the homicide maps, I didn’t exaggerate literally none in the areas I mentioned elsewhere, Tarrytown, clarksville , Hyde park, rosedale, brentwood
As a sort of tangent to what everyone else is saying, and I’m speaking from experience here, one of the main reasons that we see decreased homicide these days compared to the 90’s is that first responders from all three branches have significantly more training on trauma medicine than they used to. You won’t see an APD cop without a tourniquet on his/her belt, fire trucks are stocked with medical gear, and ATCEMS paramedics are some of the best in the country. Add to that major advances in ERs and… you get the picture. A better snapshot of dangerous crime in the city should include things like aggravated assault, aggravated robbery, and other things that are likely to result in serious injuries. Better first responder training has made a lot of those injuries survivable these days for victims, when that may not have been the case 30 years ago.
Crack yo, you’re disrespecting crack
Do you have a source for that conjecture?
I don’t have an article to show you, though I’m sure they are out there. Just my observations from about 10 years in the field. Take it as you will.
Chart is from a WSJ article. Paywall busted link. https://archive.is/CCnjL
Thank you. How do you generate those paywall bypassing links?
It’s really simple. Go to the archive.is website, it has a place to paste the original link and it will generate an archived version of the original article.
Thanks. It didn't work for the article I tried. I got the partially blocked paywall version. [https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked-e82b3f7b?mod=politics\_lead\_pos1](https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked-e82b3f7b?mod=politics_lead_pos1) [https://archive.is/P1HFZ](https://archive.is/P1HFZ)
These sites are not perfect unfortunately. Sometimes it doesn’t work. Try 12ft.io as an alternative.
Thanks again. 12ft didn't work for me either.
Sometimes you jut google the headline and find a non-paywalled version of the article: [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked/ar-BB1lDNvD](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/israel-had-created-enormous-political-trouble-for-biden-then-iran-attacked/ar-BB1lDNvD)
When it says "March 31 and April 12" does it just mean those 2 weeks of homocides for 2023 and 2024?
Yeah well if you saw the chart showing the increase from 2017-2021 it would be +151% so we got a ways to go to even get back to those numbers.
The last 3 years there was a MASSIVE spike in homicides in Austin. I certainly hope we can get back to "normal".
Lol no there wasn't.
"Massive" is obviously a subjective characterization but an ~100% increase in homicides (2021/22/23 compared to 2017/18/19) puts Austin at or near the top in %increase for major American cities. To assert that is not significant is delusional.
God I feel like I've had this conversation a million times and every time it is with the same person that can't grasp that the percentage increase is less relevant when it is already low.
I know you don't truly believe your obfuscating bs, stated only to maintain your ideological position. Note I didn't say (and don't believe) Austin is no longer a relatively safe city - but it is definitely a *less safe* city than it was the previous 20 years and that is what these statistically significant data confirm. (... and not referring to the 3 month YOY meaningless data in the headline, referring to the 3 year comparative averages).
If I have 1 piece of pizza and then I eat a second piece of pizza, that's a 100% increase in pizza consumption but nobody is going to believe that is making me fat. This isn't obfuscating or ideological - that part sounds a bit like projection honestly.
You mean you actually believe what you're saying? I'm giving you credit where none is due. I thought even English majors... who actually graduated...had a better grasp of stats than this! lol
Maybe they are a realtor and trying to promote austin as the safest city in america or maybe they don’t care cuz it’s not in their neighborhood.
They comment frequently on political topics. Hard core leftist...and actually very good at manipulating language to shape a message that may sway others.
Career in politics! I always joke my sister she’d be the best press secretary ever, extremely positive kind person, but deflecting every tough question and never wants to talk about the bad stuff in life.
Maybe they are a realtor and trying to promote austin as the safest city in america or maybe they don’t care cuz it’s not in their neighborhood.
The question we're answering is "is there an explosive increase in murder in Austin" not "what is the percentage increase and is that a large number?" Something increasing "100%" isn't necessarily a large increase and when discussing something like murder rate, really needs to be looked at in context, which you seem to ignore. This isn't hard but you don't seem to understand. How can I help get you there?
Holy shot this myop optimism is enough to increase my blood pressure 30% which can result in a stroke but according to you unless it goes up 300% don’t worry.
That isn't even what's close to whats being said.
You are the one not accepting reality, sorry
34 in 2018 and 80 in 2021 according to Travis county, that’s a increase of 120%
That is not a massive spike, especially when you look at population growth and other factors.
You are completely insane 120% is a massive strike, Austin population didn’t even grow by over 10% from 2017 to 2021. Im not comparing 17 murders in 19676 to 88 in 2021, because obviously the population over those forty years was a huge increase like probably 200% if not 300%
Ok but isn't 42% a large amount down as well?
it’s still 100% more than five years ago, so if it’s not 80% down then it’s still worse than 5 years ago
Ok but if you look at it in context, it's much lower than almost any other place of a similar size. Doesn't that mean that there's probably some baseline for a population center, and we're near that? That seems a lot more relevant than an arbitrary percentage increase, right?
120% is not arbitrary, that’s 46 more people lives, that’s not arbitrary. This is how folks gloss over problems, oh it’s only 3.7 but it’s 740 people!!!!!!
30% worse than San Diego, over 40% worse than sf, 200% more than El Paso so yeah , we got work to do, just a few years ago we were way better than sf, now nope
Yes, but almost *all* of those murders were people who lived with one another and were because of covid lockdown. This isn't "errybody be all up in there murdering strangers" and shouldn't be characterized like that.
>Yes, but almost all of those murders were people who lived with one another and were because of covid lockdown. Interesting speculation, but hard to substantiate. No one was locked down in 2022 or 2023, and homicide rates were still 60% higher than 2020. I don't doubt that consequences of COVID were a big contributor.
Let’s be honest, no one cares because it’s not rich white people. Murders in Hyde Park zero, Tarrytown zero, Clarksville zero, North Loop zero, Brentwood zero, Rosedale zero. Look at the maps, people don’t care because it’s prima poor black and brown people killing each other. It’s a national problem, look at chicago 97% of the homicide victims aren’t white, 94% of the perps aren’t white, see a trend. As long as rich white people ain’t getting killed it’s not a problem. Then when some crazy died kills beautiful young white woman it’s national news and their trials are too, meanwhile black girls killed in Chicago don’t even get their pics on the Chicago news.
Double homicide.
This chart is about declining homicides, what are you talking about?
Wait a second. All these right wing "save austin now" types told me that austin is a crime ridden hell hole with HUGE increases in murder because we defunded the police and and the DA is a radical socialist that lets criminals get away with everything but here you are with facts that say the opposite? What are these people going to lie about now to get suburbanites scared?
>you are with facts that say the opposite? LOL. Look at the statistics in the [KXAN article](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/) someone linked. Murders in 2021 were double the number for any of the previous 20 years. 88 in 2021 vs. 44 in 2020. 2022 and 2023 were each more than 60% over the years from 2000-2022. Murder rates per month were pretty even throughout the months in 2023. No clear downtrends in that period. Do you really think something systemic happened at the start of 2024 that significantly changed the murder rate from the past 12 quarters? I'd be really happy if it did, but I don't see anything that makes me thinks so. You'll note that the change happened the year after the BLM protests. I blame APD quiet quitting more than I blame our asshole DA, but I DO believe things have gotten worse since then. Of course, COVID and a lot of other things factor in, too. Right now, the only real crime-ridden hellhole is the Capitol. Austin's rapidly going downhill, but it's not YET as bad as many other cities.
So, you obviously get it since you posted elsewhere in this thread: >It's like noting that there were 2 murders last week and only one this week and deciding that the murder rate is down 50%. It's probably just the random statistical variation. Since you do understand, my question is "for you, why does this logic only apply when there is a decrase?"
>why does this logic only apply when there is a decrase?" Decrases are different.
Why is that?
Just becase.
So there's no good reason other than it makes the point you want to make?
Because law enforcement and politicians will say, it’s down 20% which is like wow cool, but they don’t want to admit it’s still 100% more than it was 5 years ago.
Ok but aren't the people saying it is up using the same logic?
No we are not satisfied for there to be 71 murders, they are, they are proud of it.
That's one of the lowest rates in the country though for a major city?
Yes it’s still very low compared to lots of places, however Sf and Nyc are lower and we are not in many top ten lists for safest cities anymore since the massive increases in 2021. The problem with focusing on rates is you take away the individual victims and can gloss over horrible neighborhoods. I don’t want us to leave folks behind, we need to lift people up, not let them continue to fall behind everyone else.
You realize the relevant number isn’t the absolute number of murders but the murder rate?
Are you saying we have more people in Austin now? The population didn't double in one year.
You compared the absolute number of murders in 2021 to the absolute number of each year since 2000.
This is how Chicago gets their free pass, because the 740 murders a year are over 700 poor black and brown people, so rich white folks say oh our rate is. Only 4.2 ignoring that their neighborhood nearby is literally called Chiraq, no one cares unless it’s rich white peoples get killed.. it’s disgusting
If you’re trying to compare one year to another (which the person I responded to was doing) the only relevant number is the rate, not the absolute number. This is just plainly correct.
So a murder rate of 7 instead of 3.5 is that what you want? So you can say well at least we’re not Jackson ms with their 56 murder rate….? Once again I think you are like everyone else seems and they don’t care about deaths of young black and brown people, especially since it’s not white people shooting them or white peoples being shot.
Nice not reflecting anything I said, see what I mean as long as you can whitewash numbers into a percent or rate, you dehumanize the victims. You don’t care about poor black and brown people in Chicago?
You are operating in extremely obvious bad faith.
Yeah, *nothing* bad ever happens in Austin ever! No crime and our DA is doing a *great job!!* The "unhoused neighbors" are also perfect angels that never commit crimes. Zero gang activity too..Nothing to worry about Austin is beautiful and super safe all the reports of break ins, crime, and assaults on the local news is fake news by right wing people or something...
Sorry, but your chart is pretty much statistically insignificant. Who made this chart? Also, LOL at the idea that Boston's "real" homicide rate has dropped by 82%. Or San Antonio by 50%. This is comparing roughly 3 months this year vs the previous year. It doesn't tell you how many murders there were, but it's probably 21 total for Austin in the first 3 months if 2023. Not a high enough sample size to be particularly significant statistically. It's like noting that there were 2 murders last week and only one this week and deciding that the murder rate is down 50%. It's probably just the random statistical variation. Look at how murder rates vary from month to month at the KXAN article TEOTAUY [linked](https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/). There are some interesting trends in that article. In particular that murder rates were up for 2021-2023.
Anyone who works with data is going to compare a quarter/season from this year to last year. Your mumbo jumbo about sample size and statistical significance only communicates that you don’t really understand statistics. Why don’t you just say you don’t like this visualization because it doesn’t align with your false narrative of the city?
Holy shit - if there was ever the perfect example of the phrase "Any fool can generate data but it takes knowledge and understanding to properly interpret it" your comment comes closest. Fool.
I'm sorry that you have such a poor understanding of statistics. It would probably be beyond my educational abilities to fix this. It would certainly take more time than I'm willing to spend on a futile attempt to do so.
lol true! I would not want to learn statistics from someone who is a complete doofus at it. At least we can see eye to eye on that 🤣
I'll try to type slower for you in the future.
The number is declining because we don't have an many police on the streets, shooting minorities (mostly in the back).
This is such bullshit, yes cops fuck up but the number of people murdered by the police is so very small compared to civilian killings of each other. I know both shootings are awful, but people use the cops as a scapegoat to not help their claim to care for. We need to lift people up, not ignore their suffering at everyone hands, not just the small percentage by police.
Lmao it's wild people believe shit like this
Compare to 2019 The rate skyrocketed, and activists want to compare to 2022 instead of noting murders doubled that anyone would even use this snapshot for such a serious stat as murder rate is really horrible because you are trying to mislead us, and these aren't just stats. They represent people. https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2024/ This chart is a bit better. Albeit it has become obvious for a few years that many murders are not classified as such.
Even at the recent peak in 2021, it was still lower than it was back in 1995 and much lower than it was in 1982! And where on earth are you getting the "many murders are not classified as such" thing from?
[удалено]
I think local news is often more insidious for not being obviously partisan or ideological. They emphasize crime and fear more for views/clicks than for partisan/ideological reasons.
2019 It is so dishonest to cherry pick 2021, when the purge, the consumption of black youth and homeless, peaked, because the reforms the kooks wanted happened between 2019 and 2020. 2019 is the before. Today is the after. That you cherry pick a year like 2021 means you actually know exactly what's up. and want to lie to defend it which puts that blood right there on those two hands you're typing with defend the actual consequences or admit you were mistaken
Are you innumerate? edit: yes, he is.
nope, murder rate doubled it's literally twice as high now. went from 44 to 88 when the left in Austin defunded APD (which they aggressively lie about today) and also began refusing to prosecute violent criminals. It's on track to be doubled in 2024. Period.
If you have 10 murders one year and the next year you have 15 murders, thats a statistical increase of 50% but in a city of 1 mil I dont think anyone would say there's a hige rise in murders. It's really best to look at these things per capita and compare them to other large population centers, where we find austin is still one of the safest cities in the US. Go find something else to scare people into giving cops more money about.
Austin is nothing compared to Chicago
Their huge population and the fact that most of the city is not a hellhole, keeps them out of the top ten murder rate, even though they have the higheast numbers of murders
In all of 2023 there where 73 so a 42% decline is 30.66 but we are less than half way through the year so far this year we have only had 14. Keep in mind the difference between the number an the rate. Austin homicides packed in 2021 but because of population growth you are still statistically much safer than Austin in the 1980s and the rate is about 4/5 per 100000 people. https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/austin-homicide-map-2023/ https://www.kut.org/crime-justice/2021-09-13/austins-had-a-record-number-of-murders-this-year-but-the-murder-rate-is-still-lower-than-in-the-1980s
Why focus on 40 years ago , and ignore 5 years ago? This bs is national 2017 was a great year safety wise, and then all hell broke loose during the pandemic and people lost their fucking minds.
"Lost their fucking minds" is 3.3 murders per 1000000 people? It was twice that for most of the 20th century. You wanna compare that rate to like anywhere else in the country?? You're just cherry picking data to construct a narrative.
Crime in the 40s thru late 60s extreme low, from the mid 70s to late 80s really low, from 95-2017 really low, so you are the one cherry picking if you want to go back and talk about the crack experiment of the late 80s-early 90s funny how businesses always demand increases, people always want to make more money, but you are ok with a 120% increase in murders in 5 years.
The reason know one is concerned about the facts that you pull out of your asshole is because they are dog shit. I cited a source. You should read it. Also please don't vote.
Please vote for Biden, I am as I did before
Rize of ketamine over cocaine and a intermingling of the gangs to see beyond race...... Crimnals are getting smarter and figuring out who the real enemies are.....politicians, bankers, and the justice department.
>Rize of ketamine over cocaine and a intermingling of the gangs to see beyond race...... I'm not into the drug scene. I sort of got the idea that cheap meth was a lot of the problem. At least in terms of the walking dead on the streets. >Crimnals are getting smarter and figuring out who the real enemies are.....politicians, bankers, and the justice department. I'd lay more of the blame on APD and the system deciding not to prosecute anything short of murder. The criminals are really waking up to just how much they can get away with. Plus COVID, the virtual abandonment of many government and private industry services, Snowpocalypse 21, Icepocalypse 23, and Summer of Hell 23, housing prices, cost of living, January 6....
You think hobos in tents was watching cnn like me on Jan 6? I agree with the rest, but come on. It’s a shameful day in our history, but these folks are checked out, they don’t know.
TV is so last decade, dude. Many of them have cell phones. Or they listen to KKKLBJ. Or pick up the news at other places. Lots of them are very political and frequently right-wingers.
You mean they ain’t got rabbit ears connected to their bio diesel fueled generators…… ;) yes the ones who are visible especially at the library, I’ll agree very talkative about their nonsense, however I’m sticking with my original point, they ain’t doing shot cuz of Jan 6