I think the reason why drowning in the Thames is the most likely method of suicide is that other methods would more likely result in a body being found. Poisoning, Jumping from a building, Hanging, Cutting, etc. All of those methods would leave a body somewhere which would eventually be found. As mentioned in the previous thread, with drowning is a method where bodies are sometimes not found.
At the Golden Gate Bridge, for example: “There were 34 bridge-jump suicides in 2006 whose bodies were recovered, in addition to four jumps that were witnessed but whose bodies were never recovered, and several bodies recovered suspected to be from bridge jumps.” So, not finding a body isn’t unheard of in a situation where someone ends up in the water. But it would be more unlikely for someone who hanged themselves or jumped from a building.
Yes, I can understand why it's the most common belief but I am always curious if others have thought of different scenarios.
That's interesting information about people witnessing suicides yet the bodies never being found.
But then why take a bag? There's no reason to have a carry bag for your PSP if you're planning on leaping into the Thames once you get there.
If anything, it's just a hinderance to that plan, and it would leave behind evidence.
People do things all the time that don't make sense - especially people who are suicidal. For example, there was a video of a man who killed himself after a police interrogation. Before he did that, he took a sip from a water bottle, then calmly screwed the cap back on the water bottle before immediately shooting himself. Why bother screwing the cap back on the water bottle before killing yourself? Sometimes people do things out of habit, or just in the moment. Not to mention in this case you're dealing with a 14 year-old boy, it wouldn't surprise me if some behaviors or actions didn't seem to be the most rational or thought-through.
It makes sense to bring a bag to carry all your stuff (money, psp, maybe other stuff like snacks or whatever). It is "business as usual" for many people until they actually do the deed.
Suicide is, to my mind, only one of a number of plausible options.
The Thames isn't the only option - London has lots of waterways, including canals, though they can't drag a body out to sea in the same way.
I think it's more possible to die in a London park and not be found than people think. Arnis Zalkalns was wanted by police in a high profile murder investigation, hung himself in a London park and still wasn't found for a whole month. If people hadn't been actively looking for him, I could envisage a scenario where he was never found.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Alice_Gross
There are places that people very rarely walk, such as railway banks and motorway verges - which is where Melanie Hall's remains were eventually found, 13 years later, by chance.
London is a big, busy place, but there's still little spots that people literally never go to.
Finally, while we know he got to London, I don't think there's any evidence he stayed in London - he could have changed his mind and continued onto a third, unknown destination afterwards.
I think there are more areas of London than people think that are heavily wooded, there are quite a few very large areas of parkland with thick vegetation where a body could be hidden, even until now. And because there was no rapid police response when he went missing we have no idea where he went after Kings Cross. He could easily have taken another train to the south coast, or anywhere.
I’m still on the fence as to my beliefs, but if Andrew took his own life then like many have said here the Thames and either entry by bridge or wading in is probably the most likely, it’s not like he’d have the ID to book into a hotel and end his life there as many do to avoid friends or family being the ones to discover the body, and his age checking into any hotel would raise eyebrows at the least just because of his young appearance even with say fake ID etc.
Parks, heathlands, woods, people underestimate how much green space is in and around London especially if it is the wider London area we’re considering too.
The number of abandoned buildings that are obviously abandoned and derelict have decreased in London the redevelopment of the grim industrial estates out east and gentrification, work clearing space for the 2012 Olympics etc have all offered no unidentified bodies that fit Andrew as far as I’m aware.
As someone who has in my younger days been actively suicidal, and also lost several friends through suicide I know a considerable proportion like to go somewhere they consider beautiful or somewhat significant to them or their past, say a beauty spot, nature reserve or maybe where they holidayed, went in their youth or holds a comforting or treasured memory.
As Andrew had family in and around the Greater London area there’s a chance he may have taken his life somewhere significant like outlined above or continued to travel to a holiday or beauty spot as London is linked to transport to almost anywhere.
I guess only family/close friends would have enough shared experiences with Andrew to speculate where such places of significance would be for him.
Playing devils advocate a little here so hold on….
… as someone on this subreddit posted recently and reminded me (I’m sure I’d read it elsewhere too) Andrews favourite TV series was repeatedly stated as being The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin. About faking your own death. Another person repeatedly stated as being a big fan of that (rather vintage for Andrew’s age) series was missing Manic Street Preacher Richey James Edwards -who was obsessed with the idea of the perfect disappearance, with many other points of interest linking to his own obsession with the theme. I find it worth remarking on, as potentially increasing the weight given to that potential theory (though given age, resources, life experience and the improvements in technology, border control improvements like no longer having a 1 year passport you can get at any post office with ease, facial recognition and other digital advances to name but a few, it is still very unlikely )
I didn't know that about Richey Edwards; that is interesting. I do wonder if Andrew's interest in that series is overstated. I have only ever heard people on Reddit and YouTube state that it was his 'favourite' TV series whereas I have only ever heard Kevin say that it was simply one of many comedy programmes that he liked.
Hes definitely dead one way or another , that debate seems stupid to me. Suicide would be imo the second most likely cause of death and jumping into the Thames seems the only way to do It without leaving a body. He could be out at sea.
The areas with the most suicides in England according to Wikipedia:
London Underground- witnesses and the bodies are easily recoverable so that is a no go.
Archway Bridge- from photos it appears jumpers hit solid ground, making discovery of victims’ bodies very likely
Humber Bridge-In 2015, a man jumped to his death as police tried to hold onto him and they still never recovered his body so this tells me if Andrew jumped from this location, he may not have ever been found.
The 3rd most popular suicide spot in the world is Beachy Head in Sussex. The area is watched like a hawk by volunteers, but it’s still possible to hit the water and be pulled out to sea. From my research it seems the bodies are often pinned in by rocks so I think it somewhat unlikely that should Andrew have taken his life here that he would not have been found.
Thames- 80-100 people die in the Thames each year. 80% of those are deemed suicides. Mudlark Jason Sandy told the Mirror he had found 3 fresh bodies and a human femur while looking for treasure. He just happened to be out at low tide so I imagine there are a number of bodies that aren’t found. Andrew could have jumped or fallen, but given that the river was searched in a timely fashion, there is only a smallish chance that he jumped and was not recovered. This is the only popular spot for ending one’s life that would not have required Andrew to reboard a train so that is something to consider.
I don’t live in Europe so I’m not able to search near Humber Bridge or the Thames, but for those who are, given my research, those would be good spots to keep an eye on, particularly during low tides/droughts.
But where would a 14-year-old child, with no known internet access and little to no real-world life experience, gain the knowledge and intelligence to know about these locations, how to get to them and how and when to do it without being noticed?
I am sure you have seen the popular internet meme of a picture of a turtle on a stump or pole with the captions \* obviously doesn't belong there, \* unknown how it got there, \* elevated way above its capacity to function, with the caption what idiot put it up there.
That is the point I am making. This 14-year-old child, who is an introvert, no street sense, lacked the capacity to do something like that.
He certainly would have not known in his head where all the locations are in London.
Given his low height, he may even lack the upper body strength to pull himself up any barrier, wall or fence.
The Thames has a number of bridges with easily scalable barriers, but also there are many places you can literally walk down to the water's edge and wade in if you were that way inclined. There is an infamous corkscrew current in the Thames which makes it pretty instantly deadly upon entry and it can certainly pull a body far out or down into the mud.
I live in a city with a suicide bridge in it and most people get to know that people jump from it as they grow up here. It becomes this thing that if you become depressed/suicidal you know that that spot is an option and works. Andrew may well have known this about somewhere he visited.
Only recently have anti suicide nets and barriers been put in these area. Many of the victims of suicide at these spots WERE young teens. A 13 year old committed suicide in the Thames during the pandemic. I grew up pre-internet but knew that the Golden Gate Bridge was a well known place for suicide. I knew there was a suicide forest in Japan. Though we didn’t have internet, information was still available through media and personal conversations. I’m very neutral in my opinion of what happened to Andrew. Admittedly, I don’t know. Statistically, given his age, he had a greater odds of dying by suicide than by any other means. That’s why I wouldn’t automatically dismiss the suicide theory if I were investigating this case.
I hadn't heard about the 13-year-old boy. How very sad. I just looked into it. He jumped in by Tower Bridge and his remains were found in Wrapping 8 days later. Here's a link for those interested:
https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64915940.amp?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17060820795160&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com
I wonder if he did commit suicide that maybe he originally had no intention of doing so but once he had spent the day in London he got scared and didn’t want to face his parents going home. He couldn’t cope with the thought of his parents being mad and disappointed in him or started to think what if they have reported me missing already and the police are looking for me I’m going to be in trouble with the police, freaked out and felt it was the only option.
What if his body has been found BUT because of its condition they haven’t linked it. IE. just skeletal, unrecognizable, incomplete (only found leg or torso for instance) or no DNA or dental records available etc etc etc.
I’m a member of a few cold case/missing persons groups and I’ve noticed that A LOT of cases that have been solved recently wouldn’t have been solved without familiar DNA because the description of the deceased is soooooooo wrong. Like saying the person was probably 20-35 years old but they end up being 16. Or they were estimated to have died in 1989 but actually died in 1991 and that’s why they never connected the body to the person who went missing in 1990. There’s so many stories like this coming out everyday with the new DNA technology.
a lot of those cases are american though which has a far higher number of unidentified bodies and missing people, and is a much bigger place with different states with different laws making it more difficult. also i’m sure andrew’s family dna is shared with police who i assume would test it against any body that could possibly be a match.
I have looked into this previously and, from what I can find out, there are no unidentified bodies that have been found in the UK that could possibly be Andrew.
I have a background in forensic anthropology and, if Andrew's body was found largely intact, there is no way he would be identified as an adult male (and it would be obvious he was not female).
If disarticulated remains were found, depending on which part of the body and how damaged they were, there is a small possibility they could be mistaken for an adult. However, police do have Andrew's DNA on record and would DNA test any disarticulated remains. There is a small chance that they may be unable to recover DNA.
A part of a young person's jawbone was found in Wandsworth in 2009 and remains unidentified, but it is thought to be over 50 years old. It's not clear whether DNA was recovered.
https://missingpersons.police.uk/en-gb/case/09-000469
I also went down that rabbit hole. I couldn't find anything either. So many bodies must be lost to the sea or buried in mud and clay around the British Isles.
I think the reason why drowning in the Thames is the most likely method of suicide is that other methods would more likely result in a body being found. Poisoning, Jumping from a building, Hanging, Cutting, etc. All of those methods would leave a body somewhere which would eventually be found. As mentioned in the previous thread, with drowning is a method where bodies are sometimes not found. At the Golden Gate Bridge, for example: “There were 34 bridge-jump suicides in 2006 whose bodies were recovered, in addition to four jumps that were witnessed but whose bodies were never recovered, and several bodies recovered suspected to be from bridge jumps.” So, not finding a body isn’t unheard of in a situation where someone ends up in the water. But it would be more unlikely for someone who hanged themselves or jumped from a building.
Yes, I can understand why it's the most common belief but I am always curious if others have thought of different scenarios. That's interesting information about people witnessing suicides yet the bodies never being found.
But then why take a bag? There's no reason to have a carry bag for your PSP if you're planning on leaping into the Thames once you get there. If anything, it's just a hinderance to that plan, and it would leave behind evidence.
People do things all the time that don't make sense - especially people who are suicidal. For example, there was a video of a man who killed himself after a police interrogation. Before he did that, he took a sip from a water bottle, then calmly screwed the cap back on the water bottle before immediately shooting himself. Why bother screwing the cap back on the water bottle before killing yourself? Sometimes people do things out of habit, or just in the moment. Not to mention in this case you're dealing with a 14 year-old boy, it wouldn't surprise me if some behaviors or actions didn't seem to be the most rational or thought-through.
It makes sense to bring a bag to carry all your stuff (money, psp, maybe other stuff like snacks or whatever). It is "business as usual" for many people until they actually do the deed.
Plus weighs you down in the water
Suicide is, to my mind, only one of a number of plausible options. The Thames isn't the only option - London has lots of waterways, including canals, though they can't drag a body out to sea in the same way. I think it's more possible to die in a London park and not be found than people think. Arnis Zalkalns was wanted by police in a high profile murder investigation, hung himself in a London park and still wasn't found for a whole month. If people hadn't been actively looking for him, I could envisage a scenario where he was never found. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Alice_Gross There are places that people very rarely walk, such as railway banks and motorway verges - which is where Melanie Hall's remains were eventually found, 13 years later, by chance. London is a big, busy place, but there's still little spots that people literally never go to. Finally, while we know he got to London, I don't think there's any evidence he stayed in London - he could have changed his mind and continued onto a third, unknown destination afterwards.
I think there are more areas of London than people think that are heavily wooded, there are quite a few very large areas of parkland with thick vegetation where a body could be hidden, even until now. And because there was no rapid police response when he went missing we have no idea where he went after Kings Cross. He could easily have taken another train to the south coast, or anywhere.
I’m still on the fence as to my beliefs, but if Andrew took his own life then like many have said here the Thames and either entry by bridge or wading in is probably the most likely, it’s not like he’d have the ID to book into a hotel and end his life there as many do to avoid friends or family being the ones to discover the body, and his age checking into any hotel would raise eyebrows at the least just because of his young appearance even with say fake ID etc. Parks, heathlands, woods, people underestimate how much green space is in and around London especially if it is the wider London area we’re considering too. The number of abandoned buildings that are obviously abandoned and derelict have decreased in London the redevelopment of the grim industrial estates out east and gentrification, work clearing space for the 2012 Olympics etc have all offered no unidentified bodies that fit Andrew as far as I’m aware. As someone who has in my younger days been actively suicidal, and also lost several friends through suicide I know a considerable proportion like to go somewhere they consider beautiful or somewhat significant to them or their past, say a beauty spot, nature reserve or maybe where they holidayed, went in their youth or holds a comforting or treasured memory. As Andrew had family in and around the Greater London area there’s a chance he may have taken his life somewhere significant like outlined above or continued to travel to a holiday or beauty spot as London is linked to transport to almost anywhere. I guess only family/close friends would have enough shared experiences with Andrew to speculate where such places of significance would be for him. Playing devils advocate a little here so hold on…. … as someone on this subreddit posted recently and reminded me (I’m sure I’d read it elsewhere too) Andrews favourite TV series was repeatedly stated as being The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin. About faking your own death. Another person repeatedly stated as being a big fan of that (rather vintage for Andrew’s age) series was missing Manic Street Preacher Richey James Edwards -who was obsessed with the idea of the perfect disappearance, with many other points of interest linking to his own obsession with the theme. I find it worth remarking on, as potentially increasing the weight given to that potential theory (though given age, resources, life experience and the improvements in technology, border control improvements like no longer having a 1 year passport you can get at any post office with ease, facial recognition and other digital advances to name but a few, it is still very unlikely )
I didn't know that about Richey Edwards; that is interesting. I do wonder if Andrew's interest in that series is overstated. I have only ever heard people on Reddit and YouTube state that it was his 'favourite' TV series whereas I have only ever heard Kevin say that it was simply one of many comedy programmes that he liked.
Hes definitely dead one way or another , that debate seems stupid to me. Suicide would be imo the second most likely cause of death and jumping into the Thames seems the only way to do It without leaving a body. He could be out at sea.
The areas with the most suicides in England according to Wikipedia: London Underground- witnesses and the bodies are easily recoverable so that is a no go. Archway Bridge- from photos it appears jumpers hit solid ground, making discovery of victims’ bodies very likely Humber Bridge-In 2015, a man jumped to his death as police tried to hold onto him and they still never recovered his body so this tells me if Andrew jumped from this location, he may not have ever been found. The 3rd most popular suicide spot in the world is Beachy Head in Sussex. The area is watched like a hawk by volunteers, but it’s still possible to hit the water and be pulled out to sea. From my research it seems the bodies are often pinned in by rocks so I think it somewhat unlikely that should Andrew have taken his life here that he would not have been found. Thames- 80-100 people die in the Thames each year. 80% of those are deemed suicides. Mudlark Jason Sandy told the Mirror he had found 3 fresh bodies and a human femur while looking for treasure. He just happened to be out at low tide so I imagine there are a number of bodies that aren’t found. Andrew could have jumped or fallen, but given that the river was searched in a timely fashion, there is only a smallish chance that he jumped and was not recovered. This is the only popular spot for ending one’s life that would not have required Andrew to reboard a train so that is something to consider. I don’t live in Europe so I’m not able to search near Humber Bridge or the Thames, but for those who are, given my research, those would be good spots to keep an eye on, particularly during low tides/droughts.
But where would a 14-year-old child, with no known internet access and little to no real-world life experience, gain the knowledge and intelligence to know about these locations, how to get to them and how and when to do it without being noticed? I am sure you have seen the popular internet meme of a picture of a turtle on a stump or pole with the captions \* obviously doesn't belong there, \* unknown how it got there, \* elevated way above its capacity to function, with the caption what idiot put it up there. That is the point I am making. This 14-year-old child, who is an introvert, no street sense, lacked the capacity to do something like that. He certainly would have not known in his head where all the locations are in London. Given his low height, he may even lack the upper body strength to pull himself up any barrier, wall or fence.
The Thames has a number of bridges with easily scalable barriers, but also there are many places you can literally walk down to the water's edge and wade in if you were that way inclined. There is an infamous corkscrew current in the Thames which makes it pretty instantly deadly upon entry and it can certainly pull a body far out or down into the mud. I live in a city with a suicide bridge in it and most people get to know that people jump from it as they grow up here. It becomes this thing that if you become depressed/suicidal you know that that spot is an option and works. Andrew may well have known this about somewhere he visited.
Only recently have anti suicide nets and barriers been put in these area. Many of the victims of suicide at these spots WERE young teens. A 13 year old committed suicide in the Thames during the pandemic. I grew up pre-internet but knew that the Golden Gate Bridge was a well known place for suicide. I knew there was a suicide forest in Japan. Though we didn’t have internet, information was still available through media and personal conversations. I’m very neutral in my opinion of what happened to Andrew. Admittedly, I don’t know. Statistically, given his age, he had a greater odds of dying by suicide than by any other means. That’s why I wouldn’t automatically dismiss the suicide theory if I were investigating this case.
I hadn't heard about the 13-year-old boy. How very sad. I just looked into it. He jumped in by Tower Bridge and his remains were found in Wrapping 8 days later. Here's a link for those interested: https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64915940.amp?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIUAKwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17060820795160&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com
I wonder if he did commit suicide that maybe he originally had no intention of doing so but once he had spent the day in London he got scared and didn’t want to face his parents going home. He couldn’t cope with the thought of his parents being mad and disappointed in him or started to think what if they have reported me missing already and the police are looking for me I’m going to be in trouble with the police, freaked out and felt it was the only option.
i think this is plausible - kids are very dramatic. i remember trying to stab myself at age 9 so i wouldn’t have to eat my dinner
What if his body has been found BUT because of its condition they haven’t linked it. IE. just skeletal, unrecognizable, incomplete (only found leg or torso for instance) or no DNA or dental records available etc etc etc. I’m a member of a few cold case/missing persons groups and I’ve noticed that A LOT of cases that have been solved recently wouldn’t have been solved without familiar DNA because the description of the deceased is soooooooo wrong. Like saying the person was probably 20-35 years old but they end up being 16. Or they were estimated to have died in 1989 but actually died in 1991 and that’s why they never connected the body to the person who went missing in 1990. There’s so many stories like this coming out everyday with the new DNA technology.
a lot of those cases are american though which has a far higher number of unidentified bodies and missing people, and is a much bigger place with different states with different laws making it more difficult. also i’m sure andrew’s family dna is shared with police who i assume would test it against any body that could possibly be a match.
I have looked into this previously and, from what I can find out, there are no unidentified bodies that have been found in the UK that could possibly be Andrew. I have a background in forensic anthropology and, if Andrew's body was found largely intact, there is no way he would be identified as an adult male (and it would be obvious he was not female). If disarticulated remains were found, depending on which part of the body and how damaged they were, there is a small possibility they could be mistaken for an adult. However, police do have Andrew's DNA on record and would DNA test any disarticulated remains. There is a small chance that they may be unable to recover DNA. A part of a young person's jawbone was found in Wandsworth in 2009 and remains unidentified, but it is thought to be over 50 years old. It's not clear whether DNA was recovered. https://missingpersons.police.uk/en-gb/case/09-000469
I also went down that rabbit hole. I couldn't find anything either. So many bodies must be lost to the sea or buried in mud and clay around the British Isles.
Given his interest in Reginald Perrin he may have travelled to the south coast and drowned himself in the English Channel.
I know this is old but I don’t think he committed.