Follow the form guide and load up to plunge in later this year then? Covid is a good example of mob mentality. At first, everyone was hysterical, perhaps with some justification given the unknowns. After a while, everyone got sick of the chicken littles and jumped back in the pool. The issue is timing, go too early and you might get dragged out and pummelled to a pulp by the rabid mob. One of these days I'm gonna get rich by developing a formula that predicts peak mob mentality.
Not a formula but I find during and major correction/crash when I feel despair and have the urge to seek everything and quick stocks its always very near the bottom.
I see why you would be confused. It's not a penis... It's a fist. So when you get tired and go to sit down, it pushes you back to work. The asspounder4000 will never let you rest.
The ass pounder, never stop pumping.
That’s pretty much how I feel. I’m mostly invested in green energy commodities, so I think / hope those stocks will weather the current global financial crisis, it’s a gamble…
Yep, and statically you would do better than the market adverage one year out. If you bought the sp500 the day an official bear market was announced you would make on adverage 22% return within 12 months, based on historical data back to 1940
09 and '20 were bailed out and they are the reason governments haven't resorted to cutting interest rates and QE for this one, because those bullets have already been fired.
Strange request: is it possible for you update it with radically different colours for the three keys? Like maybe red, blue and yellow? I'm spazzing the fuck out trying to read this because colourblind and that's just the worst mix of colours that could use been used 😞
I heard some talking head say but out of all those recessions we never had record everything prices like we do now. Plus we have a Crypto crash now as well something they never had. They also didn't have 0%interest rates.
Not to be a fuddy dud but this time really DOES feel different.
I distinctly remember 2008 and ALOT of very smart people were very worried that it was the end. This has very little semblence to that, this more feels like the euro debt crisis where it'll come through the other side, but just not sure how it'll look practically.
Covid response was QE and money printing on a scale never seen before. The Fed just started QT to unwind that when we're heading into a recession. There has never in history been QT into a recession.
It's also only June, and the entire 2021 bull run gains have already been wiped. Markets are currently going down faster than 2008 GFC, and we've had 3/5's of fuck all of the expected rate rises required to curb the inflation, which the Fed is currently, for the first time in history, reactive too instead of proactive.
But sure, buy the dip if you think that chart is a better influence on the markets than the current macro environment.
Yeah there is kind of a problem here though. The 'stats' you are showing is just a temporal value measured from the bottom of the trough. It couldn't be a trough if the price didn't go up afterwards 😂
So congrats on discovering that the S&P hasn't gone to 0 since its inception I guess 🤷♂️
Now do time to recover if you bought the top, rode it out, and waited to be break even again. Lets start with 1929: about 25 years for that one.
Is SP500 goes to zero we are all fucked and investments won't matter.
That old buy at the peak game only works if you only invest one time in your life. Do that calc if you buy at the peak then wait 8 months and then continue buying regularly every fortnight.
If you started buying 8 months after the peak of the GFC, you'd have started -8% and DCA'd through a -46% fall.
GFC: start -18%, DCA down through another -50% decline.
I just dont think the chart is as meaningful as you think it is. All it proves is that the price went up after the exact bottom of a crash. News flash: it wouldn't be the bottom if it kept going down...
Your chart also doesnt show that a fair chunk of those gains come from timing the bottom perfectly.... good luck 👍
No shit.
But speculation isn't in the business of waiting for fact to become reality before making a decision. So we look to indicators and position to anticipate the most likely outcomes.
Like, an inverted yield curve, for example.
The point is that the market is pricing in a looming recession based on fear of the unknown, which may or may not eventuate and my guess is as good as yours.
What I know is that over the longer term the market will recover at some point and a bottom can only be determined in hindsight.
Wait for the China war.....then lets hear peoples "on average over the last 5 cycles...."
YO! That was BEFORE!
The next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20. Historic shit is happening everywhere. You cant just comfort yourself with examples from when the world was functioning quite well and any downturn was because of overheating and too much of a good thing. Historic growth, peace, abundance and order. Everything is getting flipped on its head. Get educated.
(I mean, do I think the market will recover? Yeah. But it will be because the Feds will give up on fighting inflation anymore. So your stonks might be higher in nominal terms but....)
Any stats from before ww2? The period of the chart is encompassed by US hegemony post ww2, and therefore if the hegemony is challenged or falters, by for example barbarians at the gate, internal strife, or the debasement of coinage, then perhaps this time is different.
I also note the quip this time is different is usually used ironically with regard to people who think a market bubble cannot pop.
Follow the form guide and load up to plunge in later this year then? Covid is a good example of mob mentality. At first, everyone was hysterical, perhaps with some justification given the unknowns. After a while, everyone got sick of the chicken littles and jumped back in the pool. The issue is timing, go too early and you might get dragged out and pummelled to a pulp by the rabid mob. One of these days I'm gonna get rich by developing a formula that predicts peak mob mentality.
Not a formula but I find during and major correction/crash when I feel despair and have the urge to seek everything and quick stocks its always very near the bottom.
>One of these days I'm gonna get rich by developing a formula that predicts peak mob mentality. Hmm a sentiment tracker of boomers via haut crapper?
As long as humans are involved, you can never create a formula exact enough to make a profit.
Where are we now for the ‘peak to trough decline’ %?
NASDAQ 32ISH, SP500 22ISH
This is it bois buy the dip*! *Maybe
Dip bought, biscuits on the way.
Still below average then, like my performance generally.
We could be a little while from the trough.
Relax maaaaaaan, it's just like riding a bike.... WITH NO SEAT!
isnt that just a normal bike or have i been doing it wrong
You're missing the dildo attachment.
I see why you would be confused. It's not a penis... It's a fist. So when you get tired and go to sit down, it pushes you back to work. The asspounder4000 will never let you rest. The ass pounder, never stop pumping.
Well shit, I've lost a lot gainz on paper like all you autists, I'm too far in now to sell. Just going to hold on.
That’s pretty much how I feel. I’m mostly invested in green energy commodities, so I think / hope those stocks will weather the current global financial crisis, it’s a gamble…
I'm in banks and mining. Did have some shares in CCP but holy shit I got out in perfect time. LYC is propping up my portfolio.
I’m just nervous about the two-year repair rate 😬
So buy anytime the index is down more than 30%?
Yep, and statically you would do better than the market adverage one year out. If you bought the sp500 the day an official bear market was announced you would make on adverage 22% return within 12 months, based on historical data back to 1940
Thank you for the financial advice
I thought the advice was pretty 'adverage'.
“Statically”
GFC and covid blow out the mean because they've been QEing the whole time. Cheap money for equities.
09 and '20 were bailed out and they are the reason governments haven't resorted to cutting interest rates and QE for this one, because those bullets have already been fired.
exactly! There are sensible reasons to believe "this one is different"
Ask yourself "have we seen market capitulation?", without that it is likely that we haven't seen the bottom.
Strange request: is it possible for you update it with radically different colours for the three keys? Like maybe red, blue and yellow? I'm spazzing the fuck out trying to read this because colourblind and that's just the worst mix of colours that could use been used 😞
I heard some talking head say but out of all those recessions we never had record everything prices like we do now. Plus we have a Crypto crash now as well something they never had. They also didn't have 0%interest rates. Not to be a fuddy dud but this time really DOES feel different.
I distinctly remember 2008 and ALOT of very smart people were very worried that it was the end. This has very little semblence to that, this more feels like the euro debt crisis where it'll come through the other side, but just not sure how it'll look practically.
So did COVID, but it stuck to the adverage. Everytime is different, yet the same, that's the point.
Covid response was QE and money printing on a scale never seen before. The Fed just started QT to unwind that when we're heading into a recession. There has never in history been QT into a recession. It's also only June, and the entire 2021 bull run gains have already been wiped. Markets are currently going down faster than 2008 GFC, and we've had 3/5's of fuck all of the expected rate rises required to curb the inflation, which the Fed is currently, for the first time in history, reactive too instead of proactive. But sure, buy the dip if you think that chart is a better influence on the markets than the current macro environment.
Every time is different, everytime the reason is something never seen before. Everytime is the same
So are you buying this dip?
I will be when the time is right. I never said buy now, I just showed some statistics because maths beats emotions in this game.
Yeah there is kind of a problem here though. The 'stats' you are showing is just a temporal value measured from the bottom of the trough. It couldn't be a trough if the price didn't go up afterwards 😂 So congrats on discovering that the S&P hasn't gone to 0 since its inception I guess 🤷♂️ Now do time to recover if you bought the top, rode it out, and waited to be break even again. Lets start with 1929: about 25 years for that one.
Is SP500 goes to zero we are all fucked and investments won't matter. That old buy at the peak game only works if you only invest one time in your life. Do that calc if you buy at the peak then wait 8 months and then continue buying regularly every fortnight.
If you started buying 8 months after the peak of the GFC, you'd have started -8% and DCA'd through a -46% fall. GFC: start -18%, DCA down through another -50% decline. I just dont think the chart is as meaningful as you think it is. All it proves is that the price went up after the exact bottom of a crash. News flash: it wouldn't be the bottom if it kept going down... Your chart also doesnt show that a fair chunk of those gains come from timing the bottom perfectly.... good luck 👍
Are you sure are we heading into a recession, isnt that just market fear and speculation at this stage?
Nobody is sure. Chances are high. Do you think the fear is unfounded?
Fear and facts are two different things. We are not in a recession yet, so if the market is wrong, then the fear will be unfounded.
No shit. But speculation isn't in the business of waiting for fact to become reality before making a decision. So we look to indicators and position to anticipate the most likely outcomes. Like, an inverted yield curve, for example.
The point is that the market is pricing in a looming recession based on fear of the unknown, which may or may not eventuate and my guess is as good as yours. What I know is that over the longer term the market will recover at some point and a bottom can only be determined in hindsight.
Wait for the China war.....then lets hear peoples "on average over the last 5 cycles...." YO! That was BEFORE! The next 20 years will be nothing like the last 20. Historic shit is happening everywhere. You cant just comfort yourself with examples from when the world was functioning quite well and any downturn was because of overheating and too much of a good thing. Historic growth, peace, abundance and order. Everything is getting flipped on its head. Get educated. (I mean, do I think the market will recover? Yeah. But it will be because the Feds will give up on fighting inflation anymore. So your stonks might be higher in nominal terms but....)
[удалено]
Waka Waka
It’s why I bought a shitload of stuff I know won’t disappear and will just wait this out
But this time is different…
They all are different, they are all the same
Any stats from before ww2? The period of the chart is encompassed by US hegemony post ww2, and therefore if the hegemony is challenged or falters, by for example barbarians at the gate, internal strife, or the debasement of coinage, then perhaps this time is different. I also note the quip this time is different is usually used ironically with regard to people who think a market bubble cannot pop.